Travel-warning threat looms over tourism

If that were to happen, the number of foreign arrivals in December would drop by 8-10 per cent year on year. That would mean that for the whole of 2013, the number of arrivals would be only 25.75 million, down from 26.1 million as projected previously.

If such a situation lasted into the first quarter of 2014, the number of foreign tourists could be expected to grow by just 7 per cent year on year. Previously, the TAT expected arrivals to increase by 13 per cent to 28.01 million next year. However, tourism revenue would be about the same as projected previously, with an increase of almost 13 per cent to about Bt1.326 trillion.

Still, Sugree said that if this scenario transpired, only one to three months would be needed for a recovery, thanks to the quick rebound of short-haul foreign tourists.

If the scenario got even worse, like in 2008 when Suvarnabhumi Airport was shut down by protesters, the tourism outlook would be hit even harder. According to the TAT’s projection, the number of foreign tourists would plunge to 650,000 in December, a decline of 18-20 per cent year on year, with a corresponding revenue loss of Bt27.9 billion. As a result, the total number of foreign tourists in 2013 would be just 25.55 million.

Sugree said it was hard for the TAT to analyse the situation because the political landscape is still cloudy, as is the probable impact with tourism. The degree of its impact would depend on the situation. For example, if there are casualties or the use of tear gas to disperse demonstrators, the outlook still may not be too gloomy.

But if the situation escalated into civil war, that would put an end to tourism. It would take the industry at least six months to rebound from that eventuality.

So far, however, tourism has not suffered. There is no sign of any cancellations of hotel reservations.

The 27 TAT overseas offices have made a major effort to provide potential tourists with clear information about the situation. Arrivals from China, Singapore and Malaysia, which are among the key short-haul markets along with Japan, are still at a good level.

So far, the flow of foreign tourists into the Kingdom continues to rise. According to the TAT, arrivals increased by 17.08 per cent to about 26.171 million in the period from January to November 14 when compared with the same period last year. During the period, tourism revenue grew by 19.69 per cent year on year to about Bt1.177 trillion.

Travel-warning threat looms over tourism