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June 3, 2013 – 4:25PM
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Australian stocks close deep in the red, with losses led by the big miners and Telstra.
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- However with the severity of the Wall Street loss as well as a sizable decline in the Nikkei today this weighed on the move lower by the ASX200 during the afternoon session.
- Declines in key commodity prices set the tone for a fall in the materials sector today and this was able to counter a move higher from the big four banks.
- Overall there were just not enough positive drivers for the ASX200 which resulted in a negative start to the new month.
- Given how Transpacific is exposed to the broader economy through its waste management and industrial businesses, an earnings update that disappoints is no surprise.
- The company didn’t actual provide any specific guidance for the first-half results, so there was no earnings to downgrade. So what you’ve seen the share price falling by the same amount that earnings expectations were unwound.
- Observers will be looking to see if the new chief executive, who has not been appointed yet, will have a different strategic outlook for the company.
- Are there any more acquisitions the company might want to do or any divestment? Will there be any strategic shift that might be brought on by a new CEO?
- At the moment, the focus is very much on internal efficiencies and gains, and debt control rather than anything major.
- After strong growth in January and February – some of which we suspect reflects a degree of ‘pent up’ demand after weak growth towards the end of last year – growth in retail sales has continued to moderate.
- These data do not change our view that the RBA will leave rates unchanged at 2.75% at its meeting tomorrow. Nevertheless, we continue to expect the cash rate to be reduced by a further 25bps later in the year as the RBA decides further assistance is needed to guide the economy toward other areas of growth other than from the mining sector.
- While we expect low interest rates to continue to support household spending via higher house prices and significantly reduced household debt-servicing costs, the labour market presents a downside risk to retail sales growth. After improving earlier in the year, job advertising has shown signs of softening again (ANZ job ads fell another 2.4% seasonally adjusted in May), in part driven by a slowdown in labour demand in the mining sector.
- Indeed, since the start of the year, the strength in retail sales has been driven by better outcomes in the non-mining states (NSW, Victoria and ACT) while growth has slowed in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
- Japan (Nikkei): -2.6%
- Hong Kong: +0.5%
- Shanghai: +0.4%
- Taiwan: -0.5%
- Korea: -0.3%
- India: flat
- Singapore: -0.35%
- New Zealand: +0.9%
- Consumers are still spending – particularly if you track the reliable measure of large retailer sales. And companies are making money, with profits up by the most in 18 months.
- But businesses are still reluctant to hire staff. Still, this is unlikely to change until the election is out of the road. Arguably not too much is likely to change across the economy until after the election is done and dusted.
- As we travel across the country the overwhelming feedback is that investors and businesses want the election to be held now so people can get on with life.
- ANZ: +1.8%
- CBA: +1.3%
- NAB: +2.2%
- Westpac: +2.2%
- Nonetheless, tightening market fundamentals and improved home purchase affordability should provide increasing support to home prices in the year ahead.
- Low rental vacancies in most capital cities continue to drive rents higher, which combined with an extended period of low interest rates, should increasingly attract first home buyers and investors to the property market.
- Investor and upgrader demand have already strengthened sharply. In contrast, first home buyer demand remains subdued (in part due to the removal of state government incentives). Rising unemployment and heightened job security concerns could continue to weigh on this segment.
- Household caution and reduced debt appetite will limit home purchase demand and with the unemployment rate expected to drift higher, job security concerns will continue to weigh on sales and prices, particularly in certain states (Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and ACT).
Click to play video
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Click to play video- Best performing capital city: Perth +1.9 per cent
- Weakest performing capital city: Melbourne, -1.9 per cent
- Highest rental yields: Darwin houses with gross rental yield of 6.2 per cent and Darwin units at 6.3 per cent
- Lowest rental yields: Melbourne houses with gross rental yield of 3.7 per cent and Melbourne units at 4.6 per cent
- Most expensive city: Sydney with a median dwelling price of $580,000
- Most affordable city: Hobart with a median dwelling price of $321,000
- Troy Resources: +4.35%
- Australian Infrastructure: +2.9%
- ANZ: +1.4%
- NAB: +1.1%
- FKP Property +1.1%
- Suncorp: +1%
- Cochlear: -10.3% after a profit warning
- Transpacific: -10.1%
- Oceanagold: -5.8%
- Breville: -5.7%
- Senex Energy: -5.4%
- Perseus Mining: -5.1%
- ABS business indicators for March quarter
- ABS retail trade for April
- ANZ job advertisements series for May
- TD Securities – Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for May
- Dun Bradstreet business expectations survey
- Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing (PMI) index for May
- Reserve Bank of Australia index of commodity prices for May
- Western Australia Day public holiday
- New Zealand’s Queens Birthday public holiday – NZX closed
Oh my… downnnnn she goes! Was this the last Hurrah!?
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 3:23PMthere you go lib, your wish has been granted.
Commenter
guddoo
Location
CBD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 3:38PM
After 12pm – and a look over the trading of the afternoon. Linear volume and nearly no deviation from the downward trend line. Bot trading at it’s very finest!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 4:30PM
If I don’t look at my share prices today, then they haven’t really fallen. Will log back into Commsec in 3 months when all will be well again
Commenter
Bullish
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 2:52PMyes, put your head in the sand and the worlds problems will just disappear .
Exit losing positions before EoFY for the tax benefits, come back and buy in October
Commenter
worried33
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 3:49PM
China’s economic growth forecast has been reduced to 7.75% that is still 7 times everybody else in the world..
Does that mean the Australian Mines have to meet current demands + an additional 7% in future. If so then there is no end to the mining boom.until china’s growth goes negativeCommenter
Ned101
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:43PMWrong. Other up and coming mining nations are going to flog Australian back to the stone age. Africa already being primed by China for massive investment. We will go from the meat in the sandwich to just the lettuce…
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:49PM
Only 30 minutes to go before we start heading UP, ASX may finish flat today
Commenter
little-big-man
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 2:37PMnice prediction
Commenter
worried33
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 4:04PM
People can’t get on with life because an election is happening at a time we know and with a known result! Perhaps they need to pull themselves together. This is utter nonsense.
Commenter
bruiser
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 2:26PM“The glut of US gas is threatening to choke off further expansion of the local gas export sector, beyond what is already under construction.”
www.theage.com.au/business/us-shale-glut-changes-coal-export-game-20130531-2nhgq.html#ixzz2V7fpL2N6
Last pin in the resources boom being pulled out. Yikes! What will that do to house prices?
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:08PMFENG MIA?
Commenter
alfa75
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 1:54PMGold was down this morning. Any idea why KCN(14%) and NCM(4%) are up.
Commenter
xyz
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:51PMCochlear is 15% down today seems highest downfall in a day in memories, nothing has been mentioned in todays’ blog. How can SMH can leave this message and to give reason for such a downfall. It is still falling. What the hell is going on with this Australian innovation company?
ED: Profit warning: http://www.smh.com.au/business/cochlear-shares-dive-after-profit-warning-20130603-2nkvk.html
Commenter
marsup
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 1:44PMWealthy baby boomers are snapping up apartments across Sydney to bolster their self-managed super funds, helping to dash the hopes of frustrated first home buyers.
http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/boomers-put-super-squeeze-on-first-home-buyers-20130601-2nihw.htmlBut then it goes on to say “…With the government incentives gone, parents paying at least part of the deposit is the only solution for many.”
So wealthy baby boomers are alright after all. We are saving the government $billions in pension payments, and helping the young generation into their first homes. Baby boomers just keep giving and giving, unlike the younger generation who just keep taking
Commenter
HappyBabyBoomer
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 1:33PMThen you might need to ignore the below as it doesn’t fit with your theme.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2012/9/25/australian-dollar/time-shut-down-our-oldest-tax-dodge
Commenter
Opinion Only
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:12PM
As our dollar devalues our R/E becomes cheaper for overseas investors. On the news today that something like 10-20% of Sydney R/E is being bought by cashed up overseas buyers. Did someone mention a bubble?
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
waiting for an 88 cent dollar
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:24PM
Opinion – Holding $50k so they can get some benefits? That’s laughable. So what happens when the $50k runs out ? Unfortunately a few bad apples give us baby boomers a bad name. Lock the fraudsters up, no matter which generation they come from!!!
Commenter
HappyBabyBoomer
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 3:01PM
HappyBboomer … so your happy creating a society of haves and have not’s just like the deluded govt that are themselves baby boomers .. most people I know don’t have parents who live on the north shore and are going to hand their siblings a handy 100k to help them obtain an inflated mortgage! … wrapping property into smsf is a crime along with the negative gearing policy another failed govt policy that is now 20 years out of date! .. potentially going to be allot of resentful gen x,y and z’s leaving baby boomers to push their own wheelchairs that’s for sure if it continues .. just saying!
Commenter
Roguetrader
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 4:08PM
I wonder if Telstra have any 457 visa workers tinkering around in those asbestos pit?
Better sack them before their 2 year sponsorship is up have them deported… no compo claims
Commenter
GS
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 1:32PMI think the opportunity for growth in China is diminishing.
What are people’s thoughts on the possibility of Africa driving future growth as it develops?
The northern half of the continent is buggered, and SA is a mess, but in quite a few other southern African countries there have been solid growth rates for a number of years now. I think the continent’s unsustainable population growth will pose problems, but I think there are grounds for optimism.
Commenter
Fred
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 1:17PMI don’t understand why so many think the RBA won’t cut. The world economy is still slowing and all the eco data suggests slowing conditions and low inflation. While the RBA is concerned with inflation, it is also concerned with aggregate demand which is clearly slowing. A drop in rates will really help the non-mining economy and I fail to see a reason why they won’t cut. That said, I’m still 50/50 that they will this week.
Commenter
Life IS Good
Location
The Real World
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:07PMYes, RBA cut interest rate. When it get almost to zero%, then start QE, We will follow US and Japan. All stuffed up.
Commenter
FromTheEast
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:56PMDo you know of another way to get us to a competitive exchange rate in a world of ZIRP and QE?
Commenter
Opinion Only
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:11PM
Unlikely that RBA will cut rates tomorrow. Hence we may see a stronger aud, (a brief interuption to its current weakening).
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
waiting for an 88 cent dollar
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:15PM
Headline should read……………..”Stocks rise on soft econmoic data”.
Commenter
geoff
Location
burraneer
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 12:15PMNo rise today I’m afraid. The BEARS ARE BACK!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:55PM
……and the FALL!!
Commenter
thrillseeker
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 1:55PM
COH still trading at high PE. Headwinds ahead from China copies competition failure to implement a sound hedging policy. CEO C Robers asked if he was buying COH at these prices. Doesnt answer question. Ringing endorsement for shorters of stock.
Commenter
Seb Gonzo
Location
New Farm
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 12:06PMWriting was on the wall months ago, Are we so blind to HEAR!!
Commenter
jacee
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:36PM
“Heather Simmers turned 102 years of age this week. When she was 98, Westpac signed her up for a 30-year mortgage”
www.theage.com.au/business/why-youre-never-too-old-for-the-banks-20130531-2nhi7.html#ixzz2V79F4FQU
“There is not one clean LAF among my 1200 members.”
www.theage.com.au/business/missing-pieces-in-a-lowdoc-lending-trail-that-shattered-lives-20130602-2njyk.html#ixzz2V79p6GuN
“It took nearly 16 months before the regulator was forced to act against serious flaws at Commonwealth Bank’s financial planning unit”
www.theage.com.au/business/profit-above-all-else-how-cba-lost-savings-and-hid-its-tracks-20130531-2nhde.html#ixzz2V7AC8Trr
Oh dear it seems not everything is kosher with the banks like we were led to believe.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 12:01PMIf the Reserve Bank is going to further cut rates this year then tomorrow will be no exception.
Commenter
Reserve Bank
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:53AMtrue, but the dills wont have the guts to do it 2moro
Commenter
alfa75
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:14PM
A cut tomorrow would signal to the world just how weak our economy has become. We could expect a nice drop in the aud and hence a nice rise in shares heavy in usd. Aus shares would be cheaper to overseas investors and that may see a reversal in the flow of overseas currencies. the list goes on. So I reckon it would be crazy to cut again so soon.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
waiting for an 88 cent dollar
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:31PM
More excitement than Groundhog Day.
Commenter
The Oracle
Location
Oberon
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:36PM
It still needs to be done. Australia is slowing up really quickly, we need increased investment and we need it soon. It takes over 6 months for rate cuts to have an effect on the economy, if they wait til august or september to cut rates, we won’t see the effects til feb/march ’14 way too far down the track IMO. The drop in the AUD only helps so much, there is still a lot of employment amongst domestic businesses who won’t benefit much from the fall until our international companies start gaining a bit of speed which could again be 8-12 months away.
Commenter
Andrew137
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 3:29PM
They should have cut by 1/2 % as I suggested before last month’s drop.
It would have saved a lot of “What will they do tomorrow?” because they would have
done it, and by now all these economic gurus with memory spans of gnats would
over the shock.
Please note some of the bloodsuckers have since dropped some of their rates
ever so little since then. You can bet your bottom $ they know what’s in store tomorrow.Commenter
pest from the west
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 3:29PM
thought it would take a few more weeks, but the bulls (incredibly) are already taking control of the financials!
the plane.. the plane!
Commenter
alfa75
Location
on fantasy island with the midget
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:24AMone day does not make a trend
Commenter
GavBT
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:31PM
true gav
Commenter
alfa75
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 1:13PM
The old ‘reverse Jonaze trick” eh?
Commenter
geoff
Location
burraneer
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:23AMSecond Wave of material sector boom just around the corner. US and Europe economies will start to take off, increasing demand for Chinese manufacturing, causing China growth past 10%. When China grows at that pace, our mining goes into overdrive. Hold on to your hats
Commenter
CliveRinehart
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 11:19AMLaughable. The US and Europe (and Japan) are in so much debt that they only place they’ll be going to is the floor.
China has reaached its limits. It now has to deal with the consequences of its shrinking labour force and ageing population.
Big Gina will be getting a job stacking boxes at woolies.
Commenter
Fred
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:47PM
I think your on to something ! .. don’t tell anyone though!… Superman and good ole Uncle Sam will save the day yet again! .. just like the movies! ..with the slogan .. didn’t we tell you so and don’t do this at home kids! … cant wait and for the next 14 year housing rally that follows it:-)
Commenter
Roguetrader
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:51PM
I see the NZ market is doing better than us today.
Commenter
Jonaze
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:16AMEarly days but finding it hard to follow how NCM can drop like a plugged duck to 10.30am than soar like a magnificent swan by 11am.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
waiting for an 88 cent dollar
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:09AMthank god may is done with ;-}
Commenter
alfa75
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 11:01AMhey alfa – might be a better day for some. I got run over by a bull this morning early! Why are their bulls roaming the paddock anyway – I thought we shot the last of the mangy ones that Indonesia did not want!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:47AM
Poor alfa,
did you see my SLR today?? up up all the way!
LoL.Commenter
wil Feng
Location
melb
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 12:39PM
I’ve no idea why still roaming lib. I thought (and was hoping) they’d been killed off for at least a month or two… we’ll see.
Commenter
alfa75
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:57PM
hahaha look who’s back bragging about a stock he most likely sold on thursday..buffets mate wil.i.am.
how much did ya make fengsta?
remember you gotta bet big if ya wanna win big mr feng…you genius nfi you.Commenter
alfa75
Location
the twilight zone
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:17PM
Mkts at last starting to reflect reality. Mkts got ahead of themselves. Europe, Japan in turmoil. USA one step fwd one step back. China questionable. Domestically regulatory political risk to the fore with union pressure increasing costs. Reporting season to see any profit increases from cost cuts not revenue increases. No wonder $Aus is dropping. Confession session should be added pressure on ASX.
Commenter
Seb Gonzo
Location
Sherwood
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:01AMCochlear is a falling sword, yes?. Anyone game enough to call the bottom? My best hunt is buy at low $40′s . Not sure even at that price what possible downside. Sleep better with CSL!!
Commenter
jacee
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:58AMEspecially if you turn your hearing aid off !
Commenter
Jonaze
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:05AM
Don’t believe that Chinese figures will save the day again.
Chinese figures are boy crying wolf stuff…..impossible to take seriously.
Commenter
The Oracle
Location
Oberon
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:50AMWell are you.
Commenter
Are you Short
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:12AM
Only take them seriously if they are bad.
If they are good,,,,ignore them,,,they must be unreliable.Commenter
Chumlee
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 11:59AM
Agreed. Several articles have been published indicating the way figures get manipulated as per the requirement of the day.
Commenter
xyz
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 12:24PM
Oh dear SDL dropped to 8.8c. Like I’ve been saying for a couple of years, iron ore is not rare and the Chinese aren’t going to build a railway across half of Africa.
Hope you didn’t pay morte than 8c for it.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:33AMAllan – I have buy order at 5c. Just in case it takes a dive. I would expect a new offer from China in a dodgy deal at around 12-15c for take over. Just a punt. Nothing wrong with numbers.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:51AM
Look like TLS is geting hammered because of asbestos claim
Commenter
Sams
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:31AMDon’t they have insurance?
Commenter
Chumlee
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:00PM
“The better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data released on Saturday should lift local mining stocks when the market opens “
-1.5% is not a lift.
Shorters are rejoicing. Where are you five, Pete?
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:31AMout 10.18 am 4905. Too easy. Long makes money too. Have a nice day. Engine fire again for me.
Commenter
got brain
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:19AM“…should lift local mining stocks when the market opens”
Nup they’s running for the banks
Commenter
The Not-So-Magic Roundabout
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:19AMHow do you pick it if he can’t ?
Commenter
Experts
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:39AM
The manufacturing data is expected to be strong. 4920 is achievable today. Don’t short the market.
Commenter
guddoo
Location
CBD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:14AMYou are genius
But my view is that the downward pressure is still having some momentum. The banks are going to be a bit lower given the AUD is going to be keep dropping.Commenter
AnotherAngle
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 11:59AM
Off course, its not going to keep moving upwards. Downwards is the only other option available so thank you for enlightening us with your valuable insight.
Commenter
guddoo
Location
CBD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 12:21PM
Option market makers on holiday? Very strange
Commenter
igroki
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:13AMI notice not only does the market seem to lose at 10.10 it loses more at 4.00 than it makes in the whole day. Are you kidding. When was the last time the ASX lost 17 points on the close?
Commenter
ASX Not Making Sense
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:12AMWoo hoo. Cochlear COH down six bucks!
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:12AMwith expected $100-$130m profit, still very overvalued. In a downtrend for the last 3 weeks, tread carefully…
Good buying under $50 though!Commenter
worried33
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:44AM
when the “short” sighted start to sell, its time to buy
Commenter
HearingAid
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:47AM
hope you didn’t buy, wait until the dust settles before going in…
Commenter
worried33
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 3:43PM
Even Cochlear’s customers can hear the share price crashing back down to Earth!
Commenter
GS
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:10AMSo it didn’t fall on deaf ears ?
Commenter
The Oracle
Location
Oberon
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:51AM
Taking a punt today – Short at 4897. O/S news Friday-Sun was bad in my view. See how this plays out in to today’s market.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:10AMand before i go, nice work on Friday Lib. How many months of wage did you make ? LOL
Commenter
got brain
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:53AM
Friday – about 2 weeks average wages on the gain. Today is a loss so far of 1 weeks average wages!!! Nothing wrong with numbers mate. See how we go by 4pm!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 11:27AM
Fall! Down! Come back to even on the short! The bulls got loose, are now being rounded up and put back in the pen, ready for the gun!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:52PM
Lean beef is the healthiest, boneless beef even better.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
waiting for an 88 cent dollar
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:26PM
Back in the money! Finally. What a dodgy looking day. Pump and dump – it looks like a hump! Stops placed in case of late reversal. See what 4pm and shut down brings!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 2:54PM
Two months ago Chinese PMI came out, disappointed, and our market dropped over 100 points that day. One month ago Chinese PMI data came out, disappointed, and our market dropped over 100 points. Now Chinese PMI numbers are out, better than expected, so what’s going tp happen today do you think?
Commenter
ASX Form
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:01AMNothing. Chinese stats are too rubbery to be relied on and everyone has suddenly woken up to it. Better to look at coking coal, iron ore, copper and steel prices to determine trends.
Commenter
Jim Jones
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:33PM
got a sim session again but let’s try the bragging game. 7 contracts at 4877 this morning at 8.05am .
Commenter
got brain
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 10:00AMYep brain that is nice move – market took a dive after close Friday. A long before the open was a good choice this morning. I went short after open see how we go by 4pm today. Some more news to come out.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 10:36AM
Shorting right now at 4930 is not bad, a few dips would pay off definitely.
Commenter
guddoo
Location
CBD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 12:23PM
libs ..theres a bear in the woods ..shot em!
Commenter
Roguetrader
LocationDate and time
June 03, 2013, 12:25PM
Bears should be protected!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:13PM
Live article connection interrupted. Please refresh your browser
4:29pm: And here are the main winners and losers among the top 200 stocks:
Winners and losers today
4:21pm: The materials sector led the losses, down 1.7 per cent after commodities prices slid Friday night and after today’s soft manufacturing data out of China.
Consumer discretionary fell 1.4 per cent, telcos and energy both slid 1.8 per cent and IT plunged 3.3 per cent.
Bucking the trend, the gold sector jumped 3.4 per cent, while financials ended flat.
4:16pm: The stock market has closed at the day’s lows. The benchmark SP/ASX200 index fell 38.3 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 4888.3, the lowest since early February, while the broader All Ords dropped 40.3 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 4873.7.
4:06pm:European stock index futures are pointing to a lower open on concerns about a scaling back of US monetary stimulus and mixed Chinese data.
Futures for the Euro STOXX 50, Britain’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX are down 0.6-0.7 per cent, while contracts France’s CAC have fallen 0.4 per cent.
Meanwhile, Dow and SP futures are up between 0.2 and 0.3 per cent.
3:37pm: Gold has edged higher today, recovering from a near 2-per cent slide in the previous session, as weak US data hurt the greenback and strengthened hopes the Federal Reserve would stick to its bullion-friendly stimulus program.
Spot gold is up 0.6 per cent at $US1394.56 an ounce.
A flurry of disappointing US data including Friday’s report on a decline in US consumer spending weakened arguments for a near-term tapering of the central bank’s bond-buying stimulus.
The US data watch continues this week as the Fed heads for its next policy meeting later this month.
“Everyone is waiting for US non-farm payroll data this Friday to see what the central bank would do,” said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
The Fed has said it would keep up the stimulus campaign until the employment situation improved.
3:30pm: Given the indifferent readings on the Chinese economy, the Australian market initially did not appear to know whether it belonged in positive or negative territory today, CMC Markets trader Tim Waterer says:
And here’s FP Markets’ Austin Mitchum on HSBC’s Chinese manufacturing data, which came in below expectations:
PMI number really took the steam out of the rally today. Continue to think Resources are vulnerable here and countertrend bounce is done
— Austin Mitchum (@FP_markets) June 3, 2013
3:25pm: What do analysts think of Transpacific’s profit update, as chief executive Kevin Campbell resigns?
Moelis Australia analyst Adam Michell said Transpacific’s disappointing profit update was not really a surprise, as the company – Australia’s largest waste management firm – was hit by the woes in the broader economy:
Transpacific shares are trading 11.8 per cent lower at 78.5 cents. The stock fell as much as 12.9 per cent today on the two sets of news.
3:12pm: More on wages, Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said the 2.6 per cent increase was on the high side and will place additional pressure on many employers who are doing it tough.
‘‘An increase of $15.80 per week on the minimum wage … is too high for some employers and will reduce their ability to create new jobs and provide more hours to part-time employees,’’ Mr Willox said in a statement.
He said unions should moderate their wage demands when changes to taxation arrangements, transfer payments and superannuation are on the agenda.
3:05pm: Some interest notes from ANZ research on today’s retail sales figures:
2:56pm: The winds of change continue to blow through the executive ranks of the resources industry, with ExxonMobil becoming the latest company to appoint new leadership.
The oil and gas giant announced on Monday that Richard J.Owen will become chairman of its Australian operations based in Melbourne.
He will replace John Dashwood, who will return to Houston in the US where he will become Vice President of Exxon’s marketing division for the Americas.
Mr Owen has been with Exxon for more than 30 years and studied at the University of Sydney before joining Exxon’s subsidiary Esso in its Bass Strait oil and gas operations.
His appointment comes just weeks after Royal Dutch Shell announced that its Australian boss, Ann Pickard, would be replaced by Andrew Smith.
2:46pm:Gambling revenue in China’s gambling enclave Macau rose 13.5 per cent in May from a year earlier, boosted by an improving domestic economy and a week of national holidays that spurred visits from wealthy Chinese.
May revenue was 29.6 billion patacas ($3.85 billion), the second-strongest figure this year, according to government data released on Monday. Analysts had forecast a rise of between 12 and 15 per cent for May.
Macau is the only place where Chinese people can legally gamble at casinos in the country.
2:37pm: A look around the region shows most bourses are posting losses:
‘‘It’s not that we’ve seen a dramatic shift in the Fed’s exit discussion, but investors are using it as an excuse to sell,’’ says Mizuho Asset Management fund manager Masahiko Ejiri. ‘‘Some long positions are being unwound after the market rallied so fast.’’
2:12pm: The Australian economy appears in good, but not great shape, CommSec chief economist Craig James says after today’s data deluge:
2:04pm: The $15.80 a week increase in the minimum wage is a ‘‘body blow’’ for business, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) says.
While the Fair Work Commission awarded a ‘‘modest’’ increase that was less than last year, ACCI chief executive Peter Anderson says the decision is still excessive.
‘‘Today’s minimum wage decision by the Fair Work Commission is a body blow to Australia’s small and medium business community which do the bulk of employing with Australia,’’ he told reporters.
Anderson said it escalated the wages bill for business by $1.5 billion over the next year.
‘‘This decision is a blunt instrument on the small and medium business community because it does not take into account differential capacities to pay,’’ he said. ‘‘We are disappointed that the commission has failed to provide for differential treatment for those sectors that are under significant economic stress.’’
1:43pm: So much for the brief excursion into the black – the ASX200 is posting losses again.
Financials are still posting strong gains, up 0.8 per cent, and the gold sub-index is rallying 3.5 per cent, but all other sectors are in the red.
Losses are being led by the materials sector, down 1.3 per cent. Telcos have dropped 1.2 per cent and consumer discretionary is 0.9 per cent down.
1:18pm: Diversified real estate investment trust Australand, is defying the general trading trend today with a 0.6 per cent rise to $3.50, writes commercial property editor Carolyn Cummins.
REIT analysts suggest there is some general selling out of the larger trust to raise cash in case an official offer arrives for Australand. The speculation that a new offer may arrive is fueled by the overhang of the majority stake owned by CapitaLand.
The new CEO of CapitaLand has made it clear that he is reviewing its interest in Australand and it’s on the market, for the right price. GPT stepped out of the running last week, and it’s unclear whether the giant Blackstone has any interest left in Australand.
1:06pm: Commenting on the influx of data today, Macquarie senior economist Brian Redican said “It was a disappointing range of data that we saw today.”
“Probably the one bright spot was the rise in company profits in the March quarter, although that was very heavily driven by the rebound in commodity prices and mining profits.”
Mr Redican said while the data was disappointing, it was only modestly lower than what economists expected.
“It’s not going to panic policy makers from doing things differently then they probably would have otherwise done,” he said.
12:52pm: Meanwhile, Telstra shares are down for a fourth straight day, losing 1.3 per cent, as investors worry about dangerous asbestos material discovered in Telstra infrastrcuture and possible legal claims against the company.
The telco giant this morning moved to reassure the market that Telstra doesn’t currently expect to face significant financial liability from asbestos claims.
Telstra CEO David Thodey said in a release to the ASX that the company had been managing the risk of asbestos in its network for many years.
“Telstra has processes for managing claims of any type from employees and the public to ensure that such claims are handled sensitively and expeditiously. We take our responsibilities very seriously in looking after our employees and the community and our highest priority is their safety and peace of mind,” he said.
Telstra share price since the beginning of the year.
12:42pm: The banks have been driving the market higher, offsetting losses among the miners and in Telstra. Here’s how the big banks are doing:
12:30pm: Home prices remain subdued, despite continued strength in auction sales and clearance rates, suggesting the probability of a boom in either house prices or housing credit remains low, ANZ writes in a note commenting on the 1.2% drop in the RP Data-Rismarck home values index:
12:17pm: Australia’s 1.5 million lowest paid workers will get a $15.80 a week pay rise, less than last year.
The national minimum wage will rise to $622.20 a week, from $606.40 currently, the Fair Work Commission ruled today. That’s an extra 41 cents an hour.
It is less than the $30 a week increase sought by unions but more than the $5.80 wanted by business groups. Last year the national minimum wage rose by $17.10 a week.
12:13pm: It will be surprising but not shocking if there’s another rate cut tomorrow before any indication of what impact the currency movement might have, Michael Pascoe says in his video on the week ahead.
Recommended
Replay video
12:07pm: As if there wasn’t enough eco data to digest, China’s factory activity has slowed for the first time in seven months in May as both domestic and external demand softened, a private survey showed, adding to concerns that the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum.
The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May slipped to 49.2, the lowest level since October 2012 and down from April’s final reading of 50.4. The figure also was slightly lower than a preliminary reading of 49.6 released on May 23. Fifty divides a quickening in expansion from slowing.
“The downward revision of the final HSBC China Manufacturing PMI suggests a marginal weakening of manufacturing activities towards the end of May, thanks to deteriorating domestic demand conditions,” says Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC.
The reading adds to evidence in recent weeks that China’s economy is losing growth momentum, although the Chinese government’s official PMI, released on Saturday, ticked up to 50.8 in May from April’s 50.6. The official survey focuses on bigger and state-owned firms.
The IMF and OECD last week cut their forecasts for China 2013 economic growth to 7.75 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively.
11:58am: Despite the soft economic data this morning – from benign inflation, weak manufacturing figures, and a fall in job ads – economists still don’t expect the Reserve Bank to lower rates from 2.75 per cent tomorrow at its monthly board meeting.
ANZ’s chief economist Ivan Colhoun says that the recent falls in the Australian dollar meant that the central bank was unlikely to ease the cash rate tomorrow. But he said any next move by the RBA was likely to be a cut rather than a rise.
“ANZ continues to expect that the next move in interest rates will be a further cut, driven by a likely continuing rise in unemployment as signalled by the declining trend for job advertising,” Colhoun says. “Historically, interest rates have not risen until some months after there have been three successive monthly increases in job ads. Rising official interest rates in Australia appears to remain a distant prospect at this point in time.”
Financial markets are pricing in a 12 per cent chance of a rate cut tomorrow, just 1 basis point lower than before the spate of data released this morning, Credit Suisse data showed.
11:52am: And some more details on the retail sales, which rose slightly in April, partly reversing a fall in March, following an increase in sale of food, clothing and at restaurants.
The largest contributor to the rise in sales was food, which grew by 0.5 per cent, clothing, footwear and personal accessories, which lifted by 1.8 per cent, and cafes, restaurants and takeaway services, which rose 0.5 per cent.
But department stores and household goods experienced a fall in sales of 2 and 0.6 per cent respectively.
The Bureau of Statistics said the biggest contributor to the recent growth in sales was food retailing, which had expanded 0.6 per cent in trend terms.
Retail turnover rose 1.3 per cent in April, as compared to the same month last year.
Read more
Retail turnover
11:48am: Here’s some more on the ANZ job ads series, which is seen as an indicator for broader employment:
Fewer jobs were advertised in May, marking the third consecutive monthly decline in job vacancies. The number of job ads posted on the internet and in newspapers fell 2.4 per cent in May, seasonally adjusted, after falling 1.7 per cent in April to the lowest level so far this cycle, the latest ANZ Job Ads Survey found.
In the 12 months to May the number of employment advertisements were down 28 per cent on the most recent peak at the end of 2010.
ANZ chief economist Ivan Colhoun says the apparent stabilisation in the early months of 2013 has not been sustained.
‘‘In trend terms, job advertising is declining 0.4 per cent month on month, a relatively moderate rate of decline, but one that is likely to be consistent, unfortunately, with a continuing moderate rise in Australia’s unemployment rate,’’ Colhoun says.
11:45am: While the local market is now trading flat, clawing back all of its ealry losses, in Japan, the Nikkei has tumbled to a five-week low, dropping 2.1 per cent in morning trade, as sharp declines in US stocks dampened already fragile sentiment in Japanese equities that have now fallen 16 per cent from a 5-1/2 year peak.
Tokyo stocks are being hit by a global index rebalancing and profit-taking hit Wall Street, and adding to a sell-off triggered by worries that the US Federal Reserve may roll back stimulus and by slowing growth in China.
Some market participants said there was little evidence of panic selling by foreign investors, helped by expectations that there will be a very quick rebound and confidence in the broader fundamentals, but cautioned against being too sanguine.
“The longer and longer this market fails to quickly rebound, the greater the risk is of foreign investor’s confidence in Japan outlook is being bended and engendering more selling,” said Stefan Worrall, director of equity cash sales at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.
11:40am: Hang on, there’s more data: the RP Data-Rismark home values index declined by 1.2 per cent in May after falling by 0.5 per cent in April. Despite consecutive monthly falls, values remain higher at just over 1 per cent since the start of 2013.
Highlights over the quarter:
11:34am: A slew of economic data has been released:
Retail sales rose 0.2 per cent in April, slightly below expectations for a 0.3 per cent rise.
Company operating profits jumped 3 per cent in the first quarter, outpacing predictions of a 1.5 per cent rise.
But ANZ job ads posted another drop, falling 2.4 per cent in May, from 1.7 per cent in April.
The dollar barely reacted and is curerntly fetching 96.15 US cents.
11:28am: Retail sales are out in a couple of minutes. Expectations are for a 0.3 per cent rise in April, after a drop of 0.4 per cent in March.
The dollar is trading at 96.23 US cent.
11:24am: The head of Transpacific has resigned as the waste management company downgrades its profit forecast.
Chief executive Kevin Campbell informed the company’s board he believed he was unable to provide the longer term commitment needed to drive the continuing transformation of the business, Transpacific said.
The announcement was made as the company said it expects to make a net profit of between $46 and $53 million in the year to June 30, including one-off costs of $14 million.
Transpacific shares are 11 per cent lower, vying with Cochlear for the spot of biggest loser among the top 200 today.
11:17am: Moody’s will consider downgrading its credit ratings on subordinated debt issued by the Australian banks, as global regulators take a tougher line on bondholders in distressed banks.
The credit agency said today it had recently changed its assumptions about the likelihood of government support for holders of subordinated debt, which ranks after other types of debt if a company fails.
During the global financial crisis, governments tended support struggling banks by injecting equity, which shielded bondholders from wearing losses.
However, there is now a growing push for bond holders to receive a ‘‘haircut’’ when a bank gets into financial strife, as seen in the recent International Monetary Fund package to save the Cypriot banks.
As a result of this trend, support for holders of subordinated debt is now ‘‘less probable,’’ Moody’s said.
11:15am:European Central Bank head Mario Draghi is defending the bank’s offer to purchase government bonds, saying it’s key to defusing fears the eurozone might break up.
Germany’s Constitutional Court will hear arguments challenging the program next week.
No bonds have been bought, but the mere offer has lowered bond-market borrowing costs for indebted countries such as Spain and Italy, lowering fears they might not be able to pay their debts.
Draghi rejected criticism that the bond purchase program took pressure off governments to reform their finances.
Draghi said in the text of a speech on Monday in Shanghai that governments that want the help must meet strict conditions, or else reform without the help from the purchases. He said that ‘‘either way, they have to persevere in their reform efforts’’.
11:05am: China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 54.3 in May from 54.5 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reinforcing the view that the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is losing steam.
A reading above 50 indicates activity in the sector is accelerating, while one below 50 indicates it is slowing.
The services sector index followed the bureau’s manufacturing PMI on Saturday, which ticked up to 50.8 in May from April’s 50.6. The official survey focuses on bigger and state-owned firms.
11:02am: Macquarie Private Wealth will part ways with more executives over the next three months, as it undergoes a significant restructure following compliance failures identified by the corporate regulator, the AFR reports.
The retail stockbroking and financial advice arm of Macquarie Group has set a deadline of August 31 for several executive directors to leave the business, the Fin quotes sources as saying.
Some staff were given the option to remain until that date so they would be eligible to receive Macquarie share options earned for the previous year, the paper writes. However, some executives will not be paid hefty redundancy packages, sources said.
Among those expected to leave the Australian business are the head of Macquarie Private Bank Jay O’Neil, Macquarie Private Wealth (MPW) chief operating officer Natasha Yeoh and MPW’s head of risk Brad Veale.
The looming exits will follow the recently announced departures of Macquarie’s former banking and financial services (BFS) boss Peter Maher, BFS chief investment officer Craig Swanger, executive director Matt Rady and communications executive Irene O’Brien.
10:57am: Some more eco data out: inflation remained subdued in May leaving the door open for further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank.
Inflation rose 0.2 per cent in May, lifted by the prices of fruit, vegetables, rents and books. It was offset by a drop in the prices of fuel, local holiday travel and accommodation, found a survey by TD Securities released today.
The latest data came as the manufacturing sector contracted for the 23rd consecutive month in May, according to the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Manufacturing Index, also released today.
In the 12 months to May, inflation rose by 2.2 per cent, near the bottom the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2 to 3 per cent. Inflation had risen 0.3 per cent in April and 0.2 per cent in March.
Read more
Inflation in May.
10:38am: And these are the biggest winners:
10:36am: Here’s a look at the biggest losers on the ASX200 this morning:
10:34am: The Australian dollar has bounced back from near multi-month lows against its US counterpart after the better-than-expected report on manufacturing activity in China over the weekend.
The dollar is trading 96.11 US cents, having fallen to 95.49 US cents in offshore trade on Friday. It skidded nearly 8 per cent in May to a 19-month trough of 95.28 US cents, the largest monthly drop since late 2011.
The currency is also buying 96.5 yen and 73.98 euro cents
The Aussie found some reprieve after China’s official PMI rose to 50.8 in May from 50.6 in April, beating market expectations and raising optimism its economy may be stabilising. HSBC final PMI is due out later today.
10:21am: And despite hopes for the miners propping up the market after stronger than expected Chinese manufacturing data on Saturday, materials are leading the losses, down 1.7 per cent.
Consumer discretionary stocks are down 1.3 per cent, energy has dropped 1.2 per cent, while financials are up 0.5 per cent.
10:15am: The stock market has opened lower. The benchmark SP/ASX200 fell 28.7 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 4897.9, while the broader All Ords lost 31.1. points, or 0.6 per cent, to 4882.9.
9:59am: The first bit of economic data for today is out: Australia’s manufacturing sector contracted for the 23rd consecutive month in May, though there are some positive signs for the industry.
According to the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Manufacturing Index, the sector shrank at a slower pace in May, compared to a sharp contraction recorded in April.A recent fall in the Australian dollar would help the sector, Ai Group chief executive Innes Willox said.
‘‘The welcome drop in the Australian dollar in recent weeks will provide breathing space for many exporters and will help lift confidence,’’ he said. ‘‘However, the dollar remains well above its post-float average and there will need to be sustained falls if we are to see a real impact on import-competing manufacturers and exporters.’’
9:58am: The better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data released on Saturday should lift local mining stocks when the market opens and offset some of the effect of the negative lead from Wall Street.
“I think we’ll have a soft start but maybe not quite as weak as the fall on Wall Street would suggest,” he said. “The Chinese data should help us out a bit.”
Oliver said while most economists believe the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold, he believes they may cut it by 25 basis points.
“It makes sense to cut again to keep the downward pressure on the Australian dollar,” he said.
9:57am: Today marks the start of a busy week in local economics news, with the major releases including inflation and job ads data today, the RBA’s June rates meeting tomorrow and first quarter GDP data on Wednesday.
In economics news today:
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Markets Live: Shares at day"s low
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
waiting for an 88 cent dollar
Date and time
June 03, 2013, 1:31PM