Markets Live: Stocks close flat

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July 30, 2013 – 4:19PM

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Stocks fight back in afternoon trade and the dollar takes a hit after RBA chief opens door for a rate cut.

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5:02pm: That’s all for today, folks. Thanks for reading this blog and posting your comments.




Here’s our evening wrap of today’s session.









4:35pm: Strong day for Japanese stocks: the Nikkei rose 1.5 per cent as the yen weakened (and after a more than 3 per cent loss yesterday).




Other markets in the region are also higher, with Korea’s Kospi up 0.9 per cent and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.7 per cent.




European shares are set to open higher, tracking stronger Asian markets, although mixed company results and some caution ahead of central bank meetings were expected to limit the market’s advancement.




Futures for the Euro STOXX 50, Britain’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are 0.5 to 0.7 per cent higher.




Wall Street futures are between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent higher.









4:18pm: The stock market has ended flat, finding some life after Reserve Bank chief Glenn Stevens opened the door even wider for a rate cut in August. The benchmark SP/ASX200 index edged up 0.9 point to 5047.2, while the broader All Ords slipped 1.6 points to 5026.3.




Among the sectors, materials rose 0.9 per cent, while financials shed 0.1 per cent and consumer staples lost 1.2 per cent as investors sold off Woolies.









4:06pm: UBS economists Scott Haslem and George Tharenou say they are expecting the federal budget to be downgraded by $20 billion – or 1.25 per cent of GDP.




The downgrade should see the budget deficit clock in at minus $21 billion in 2012-13, minus $24 billion in 2013-14, minus $15 billion in 2014-15, minus $6 billion in 2015-16 and a surplus of $5 billion in 2016-17.




Why? The economists expect a fall in nominal GDP by 0.75 percentage points in both 2012-13 and 2013-14. They also expect real GDP to be trimmed by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points to 2.5 per cent year-on-year.




“But while growth has been slower than expected, the budget downgrade is – again like May – set to be worse than Treasury sensitivities implied based on the reduced GDP growth forecasts alone, especially given a lower Australian dollar – down another 6 per cent since May – should provide some offset.




“Their scenario of a 1 per cent decrease in nominal GDP due to a fall in the terms of trade – assuming no consequent fall in the Australian dollar or interest rates – deteriorates the budget by approximately $3.1 billion in 2013-14, and approximately $5.7 billion in 2014-15. Hence, the hit from lower growth should only have deteriorated the budget by a few billion.”









3:59pm:Australia has been at the heart of the action today, with June building approvals showing that you can bring down the cash rate 200 basis points, but it doesn’t always translate into good housing data, and in this case a clear translation effect on the domestic economy, IG’s Chris Weston recaps:



• June approvals fell 6.9% in June (13% on the year), against expectations of +2%; what’s more, the May print was revised from -1.1% to -4.3%.


• RBA governor Stevens spoke just after lunch and in a pre-prepared speech and subsequent QA session suggested the bank still had room to ease after the recent CPI data. His words were dovish and backed up what he said three weeks ago when he argued ‘if the economy needs a lower exchange rate, it will probably get it’.


• This time he detailed that a lower AUD makes sense, and that expectations for a drop are fair. This is a man at the helm and not in any way concerned with the magnitude of the drop over recent months, happy to massage the local unit lower.


• We have seen the first early names report earnings, with supermarket giant Woolworths (WOW) coming out with a Q4 sales report, which seems to be highlighting some discerning trends; if you also look at annualised sales per square metre, rival Coles is continuing to make ground, with the ratio of its earnings to WOW now 92%.








3:41pm: The July home values index from RP Data and Rismark International will be reported on Thursday, with the daily index pointing to a rise of 1.4 per cent over the month to date across the five city aggregate index.




The strong month-on-month increase in dwelling values follows a 1.9 per cent gain recorded in June and will take the total recovery since the end of May last year close to 6.5 per cent.




The latest two months of data have seen a significant escalation in the rate of capital gain, particularly in the largest capital cities of Sydney and Melbourne where values are likely to be around 2 per cent higher by the end of July.









3:32pm: Here’s a bit more on what RBA governor Glenn Stevens said during the QA session following his speech at the Sydney lunch:




On the impact of a falling exchange rate on inflation: “I think swings in the exchange rates – we’ve had some big ones in recent years – I think it’s unlikely that they’re going to derail us seriously on inflation. I think the framework has a) sufficient flexibility and b) sufficient credibility that I don’t think we’ll have too many dramas on that front, short of a very large depreciation which of course we haven’t yet seen.




On the impact of monetary policy at very low rates of interest: “I don’t think we’re there. I think from the point of view of lower bounds and so on I don’t think those things are going to impair us in the likely scenarios we face. The fact that people have at least in some cases, a genuine desire to get leveraged down, I think has affected the way the economy responds to interest rates but that won’t be a permanent feature. That’s the feature of this phase that we take on board. So I’m not especially concerned right now by kinda running out of ammunition in the near term.”




On the increase in the jobless rate: “I think it’s been rising. We’ve had a year of below-trend growth and the unemployment rate has gone up a bit – that all kinda adds up. I don’t have the impression that it’s materially exceeded the forecasts that we’ve had some months back at this point, but it does appear to still be trending up and the forward indicators – vacancies and so on – still look quite soft. So that will be my description of the labour market. I think that is the description we’ve given in the published material up to now and of course we’ll have an update in 10 days.”









3:28pm: Construction giant Leighton has snared a $2.8 billion contract to build a new luxury casino in Macau.




Leighton’s Asian division will build the 450,000 square metre resort and hotel after sealing a deal with Wynn Resorts, which owns casinos in Las Vegas and Macau. The resort will be built on the Cotai Strip in the international gambling destination.




Leighton chief executive Hamish Tyrwhitt said the project was part of a broader plan to continue to grow the company’s presence in Asia. The deal is the largest ever scored by the group’s Asian division.




Construction is due to be completed in early 2016. Leighton shares are up 2.6 per cent.









3:08pm: Oil and gas producer Drillsearch has forecast more growth this year after generating a record $99 million in revenue in fiscal 2013 on the back of its new operating oil pipeline in the Cooper Basin.




The newly installed Bauer to Lycium oil pipeline in the Cooper Basin’s western flank was producing 10,000 barrels of oil a day by the end of the fiscal year, the company said in a statement. The record sales revenue came after a record June quarter including 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent and $50.7 million in sales revenue.




Increases in oil and gas production were driven by the completion and commissioning of the pipeline re-starting of production at the Western Cooper Wet Gas Project.




The company’s shares are 2 per cent down at $1.23.









3:01pm: UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, has reported a 32 per cent jump in second-quarter profit on gains at the investment bank and announced plans to buy back the fund set up by the central bank in 2008 to help it shed toxic assets.




The investment bank posted a pretax profit of 775 million Swiss francs, compared with a 92 million-franc loss a year earlier, while earnings at the wealth-management division rose 11 per cent to 557 million francs. Net income increased to 690 million francs from 524 million francs.




Chief executive Sergio Ermotti reported earnings that topped estimates for a second straight quarter after announcing plans to cut 10,000 jobs and scale back the investment bank to focus on money management.




‘‘UBS is a beneficiary of stronger markets through faster deleveraging, improved capital markets revenues, and higher private banking activity,’’ Huw van Steenis and Hubert Lam, Morgan Stanley analysts with an overweight rating on UBS, wrote in a note last week. They predicted a faster-than-planned deleveraging and build-up of capital to allow UBS to make an ‘‘outsized’’ dividend payout in 2015.









2:50pm: A look at the region shows most share markets are up today:



• Japan (Nikkei): +1.4%


• Hong Kong: +0.7%


• Shanghai: +1.05%


• Taiwan: +0.9%


• Korea: +0.7%


• ASX200: +0.05%


• Singapore: +0.2%


• India: flat


• New Zealand: -0.5%








2:40pm: The financial advisers who put their clients into LM Investment Management’s frozen funds stand to collect millions in commission before their clients see any return, Michael West writes:




The latest administrators report for LM Investment Management shows commissions of $10 million are subject to claims by financial advisers. However, the actual investors themselves have not been deemed by the LM group administrators to be creditors. Rather, their savings rank behind the fees of the very people who put them into these dud investments in the first place.




BusinessDay revealed yesterday LM founder Peter Drake had taken at least $46 million in loans before his mortgage fund empire collapsed earlier this year. These have not been repaid and Drake appears headed for bankruptcy.




In light of the loans to Drake and the feeding frenzy by the administrators and their lawyers, the prospective returns for investors in the LM suite of funds is diminishing with every week that passes.




Since the collapse in March this year, the administrators FTI Consulting have charged $2.4 million in fees, or $130,000 a week. Disbursements came to another $2 million.




Read more









2:30pm: Next round in the dockets debate: Woolworths boss Grant O’Brien has defied calls by the competition regulator to shut down its heavily discounted petrol shopper docket schemes, arguing the retailer is offering huge help to families as they balance their household budgets.




The entrenched position now taken by both sides, the nation’s biggest supermarket chain and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, has intensified the heat around the issue and could mean an eventual court case to decide the matter could be a likely outcome.




Addressing investors on the release of Woolworths’ sales results for fiscal 2013, O’Brien said his petrol shopper dockets discount were here to stay.




‘‘No one has come to me and said stop doing what you are doing, and nor do I expect anyone to,’’ O’Brien said. ‘‘Customers have been benefiting from this and have done for a decade and a half and will continue to benefit going forward especially in this environment where there is such pressure on household budgets.




‘‘How can it be a bad thing to to have discounts?’’




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2:20pm: Some more from the QA session after the RBA chief’s speech: in response to a question about China’s softening economic data, Glenn Stevens said he felt the country’s growth was still delivering what policy makers had wanted – a shift towards GDP figures of about 7 per cent.




He said perceptions of disappointing numbers coming out of China could be in part due to high expectations of growth that needed to be adjusted.




He added that the key question for China was not about growth but about whether authorities could managed the build up in the country’s exposure to the shadow banking sector.









2:01pm: The RBA chief says swings in the dollar won’t derail the benign inflation outlook, while the central bank still has ammunition to stimulate the economy.




Stevens earlier said recent declines in the dollar, down some 13 per cent in the past three months, were not surprising and the currency could fall further.




It’s currently trading at 90.8 US cents, down 1.25 cents from before the Stevens speech.







Speaking out: Glenn Stevens. Photo: Glenn Hunt









1:33pm:The Aussie has slipped below 91 US cents now, bottoming out at 90.85 US cents. It’s back up a bit, to about 90.96 US cents, but if Mr Stevens’ intentions during his lunchtime speech today were to put a bit of downward pressure on the local currency, he’s been very successful.




That’s a loss of 2 US cents since early yesterday. The Aussie was buying 92.87 US cents in the very early hours of Tuesday morning.




1:22pm: Roving BusinessDay writer Glenda Kwek, who is in the audience at the RBA governor’s lunch, reports that Mr Stevens started his speech at a Sydney charity lunch …  with a joke.




After Mr Stevens’ last off-the-cuff comments at a Brisbane speech about the RBA’s July board meeting, the dollar fell more than 2 cents.




Mr Stevens this time has joked about that joke, saying that the large turnout at the lunch was unlikely to be because they wanted to hear his jokes.









1:20pm: Some more from the RBA governor, who noted the importance of a recovering in business confidence.




‘‘It is now well understood that the mining boom is shifting gear and that we are entering a new phase. We would like to see a ‘rotation’ to other sorts of demand as the resources sector demand slows,’’ he said.




That rotation would likely involve more net foreign demand for Australian output other than mining, he said. For a smooth rebalancing to occur, Mr Stevens said several ingredients were needed, including business confidence.




‘‘It is somewhat concerning that the business community’s confidence has been quite subdued in recent times,’’ he said.




‘‘To the extent that substantial structural change has been occurring, and there is inevitable uncertainty over the international outlook, it is quite understandable that some business segments have found the going hard and don’t feel very confident.




‘‘Unfortunately, it is not a straightforward thing to turn sentiment around.’’









1:13pm: In his speech, Stevens played down concerns that rising home or asset prices might stand in the way of a cut, saying that low rates were intended to nudge investors toward taking slightly more risk.




“There are clearly signs of policy working in this respect, though not, to date, by so much that we see a serious impediment to further easing, were that to be appropriate from an overall macroeconomic point of view,” he said.




The central bank last cut rates in May, aiming to enliven sectors such as consumer spending and home building. Consumption had been unusually subdued as households chose to boost their savings in the wake of the global financial crisis.




1:11pm: In fact, the Aussie has moved down in two stages today, falling from 92.03 ahead of the building approvals data to 91.55 in the moments after it. The local unit was buying 92.45 late yesterday.









1:09pm: That didn’t take long. The dollar has dived on the release of the speech by RBA governor Glenn Stevens, who said there was still room for more rate cuts.




“We have been saying recently that the inflation outlook may afford some scope to ease policy further if needed to support demand,” Stevens told a charity lunch. “The recent inflation data do not appear to have shifted that assessment.”




The dollar fell from 91.6 to 91.06 US cents pretty much as soon as Stevens started talking.









12:55pm: Scott Haslem at UBS has taken a look at the residential building approvals data out earlier today. He notes that, although approvals slipped nearly 7 per cent in June, they remain 5 per cent higher for the year.




He also points out that the series showed a 13.1 per cent jump in May, and said Victoria led the weakness, hitting a 3-year low while ‘‘SA fell 10 per cent, reversing most of last month’s 14 per cent rise’’.




He writes:



• Overall, today’s data provided a negative surprise in the housing space, with a much sharper than expected correction in June that largely eliminated the upward momentum evident as we entered Q2.


• Together with the unwind of the recent improvement in the non-residential building approvals – now no longer showing a positive trend – today’s data are certainly no impediment to a further RBA rate cut next week, if they so choose (UBSe -25bp to 2.5%).








12:40pm: In a little more than 20 minutes, RBA governor Glenn Stevens will deliver a highly anticipated public address. As always, this will be heavily scrutinised for any hints or clues concerning the interest rate agenda.




Some are suggesting he will authenticate the markets pricing of a rate cut for next week, but IG’s Evan Lucas doubts he will hint at cuts:



• We find this a little presumptuous considering Glenn Stevens’ history. He is the ultimate poker player and after the slight misinterpretation of his ‘deliberation’ comment last month, he is unlikely to suggest which way the RBA is leaning heading into next Tuesday’s board meeting.


• He is more likely to address global concerns, specifically China and the residual sluggishness in the surrounding regions in the post-GFC environment.








12:32pm: Some more on building approvals: CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian says the figures aren’t too concerning, even if they have sparked speculation about the state of the home building sector.



• It really is a volatile reading. There certainly seems to be a lot of conjecture about how well the home building market is going.


• What it really highlights is we’ve got normal levels of building across the economy. It certainly does not mean the sector is collapsing.


• The RBA will certainly be looking at the housing sector very closely, but I don’t think these numbers will be the defining reason why the Reserve Bank cuts rates.


• It’s still very early days for the sector, but I think the low interest environment is starting to provide a degree of support for the sector.








12:16pm: This morning’s building approvals monthly data has fallen well below expectations, signalling a decline in construction activity within the economy, says CMC Markets manager William Leys.




“The release has not yet triggered much reaction within the equity market, possibly because investors see the bad news as being largely offset by an increasing likelihood of a rate cut next round.”









12:05pm: Japan’s industrial production fell in June by the most since March 2011, when the nation was hit by a record earthquake, as automakers cut output after a gain the previous month.




Output declined 3.3 per cent in June from the previous month, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo, a steeper fall than any economists forecast in a Bloomberg News survey where the median of 29 estimates was for a 1.5 per cent drop. In May, output climbed the most since December 2011. Production slid 4.8 per cent from a year earlier in June.




Today’s report adds to challenges for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who must decide whether to proceed with a consumption-tax increase that threatens to arrest a rebound in the world’s third-largest economy. Weakening production would undermine his calls for higher wages to bolster his reflation efforts after temporary boosts from monetary and fiscal stimulus.




‘‘The fall in production is likely temporary and will be offset by the expected July increase,’’ says Masaaki Kanno, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase and a former Bank of Japan official. ‘‘I don’t think there has been a change in the underlying trend for industrial output.’’









12:03pm:Warrnambool Cheese and Butter Factory now comes with added cream.




Higher prices for dairy products and the lower Australian dollar have enabled the dairy producer to upgrade its profit guidance.




The company still expects its annual profit for the 2012/13 financial year to be lower than in the prior year, but the result is likely to be an improvement on the guidance that the company provided in April.




WCB said on Tuesday that it now expects that its 2013 net profit will be about 52 per cent below that of last year.




‘‘The recent improvement in trading conditions and overall business performance have provided a welcome lift in 2013 full year profits, and we expect the continuation of these factors will contribute to improved earnings in 2014,’’ WCB chief executive David Lord said in a statement.




Investors aren’t too impressed, though, with shares down 1.1 per cent.









11:46am:A bit more here on Woolworths, which also warned that losses for its troubled home-improvement joint venture Masters would blow out beyond previous guidance to $157 million for the 2012/13 financial year. Rival food and hardware retailer Wesfarmers Ltd tumbled 1 per cent.




“People didn’t like the report that came out, but even so we are seeing a bit of weakness across other stocks as well, today there’s a bit of modest underperformance,” said Damien Boey, equity strategist at Credit Suisse.




Meanwhile, Sundance Resources jumped 2.5 per cent to $0.08 after the company said it expects to wrap up talks with potential partners by the end of 2013 to fund its $4.7 billion Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project between Cameroon and the Republic of Congo. That is about six months later than the company flagged to Reuters in May.




11:44am: And just in case anyone is wondering, Credit Suisse puts the chances of a rate cut of 25 basis points at 77 per cent, down fractionally from yesterday’s 79 per cent.




Glenn Stevens speaks at a lunch today. That’s something to look out for early this afternoon.









11:43am:Chinese stock-index futures gained, signaling the benchmark index may snap four days of losses. Futures on the CSI 300 Index expiring in August climbed 0.8 per cent to 2,161.




The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.7 per cent to 1,976.31 yesterday. The index has fallen 0.2 per cent this month, adding to a 13 per cent loss for the year, amid concern slowing economic growth will hurt earnings.









11:38am:The Australian dollar fell below 92 US cents after the release of weaker than expected building approvals figures.




Economists had forecast a rise of two per cent in approvals for June. The currency was trading at 91.85 US cents, down from 92.04 US cents just before the data’s release.









11:35am:Today’s main bit of data is out. Approvals for the construction of new homes fell 6.9 per cent across Australia in June, official figures show.




Local councils approved the construction of 12,778 new homes, including houses, townhouses and apartments in multi-unit buildings, in June.That compares to 13,727 approvals in May, seasonally adjusted.




Over the year to June, building approvals were down 13.0 per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists had forecast a rise of two per cent in approvals for June.









11:21am:Gold is little changed as investors eye the US Fed meeting, set down for Wednesday and Thursday US time.




Bullion for immediate delivery was at $US1,327.81 an ounce from $US1,328.03 yesterday, when it fell 0.4 per cent. Prices, which gained for the past three weeks, are up 7.6 per cent this month, the most since January 2012.




Gold lost 21 per cent this year and Goldman Sachs forecasts lower prices through the end of 2014 on concern that an improving US economy will prompt the Fed to curb stimulus. Some investors have lost faith in the metal as a protector of wealth amid a rally in the dollar and stock markets.




‘‘Bullion has been put under significant pressure from uncertainty surrounding the timing of quantitative-easing tapering since the start of this year,’’ James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities.




‘‘Investors take a wait-and-see approach ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting,’’ he wrote, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee.









11:13am:The big banks are lower, with CBA backing away from fresh all-time records set yesterday:



• CBA: -0.35%


• ANZ: -0.61%


• NAB: -0.35%


• Westpac: -0.08%








11:11am: Just following up the post on Japanese shares, which have seen a modest turnaround today.




Japanese stocks have rebounded from a one-month low, with the Topix Index, the best performer among the biggest developed markets in 2013, gaining 0.4 per cent after slumping 7.7 per cent over the past four days.




While reports showed Japanese factory output fell more than economists expected in June, the jobless rate was a lower-than- estimated 3.9 per cent.




Japanese factory production fell 3.3 per cent in June, more than the 1.5 per cent decline projected by economists in a Bloomberg survey. The data outweighed the jobless rate’s drop to a better-than-expected 3.9 per cent.









11:11am:The ASX200 is hitting fresh lows for the day. The benchmark index is now down about 0.4 per cent, or 20 points, to 5026. The All Ords is down about the same amount – down 0.4%, or 19.2 points, to 5008.7.









11:04am: And now for the sliders on the ASX50:



• Transurban: -4.58%


• Sydney Airport: -2.61%


• Woolworths: -2.04%


• Computershare: -2.03%


• Insurance Australia: -1.53%


• Wesfarmers: -1.33%


• Iluka: -1.26%








11:02am: Now for some of the early winners on the ASX50:



• Newcrest: +1.32%


• Toll: +0.86%


• Origin: +0.84%


• Amcor: +0.77%


• AGL: +0.54%


• APA Group: +0.42%








10:59am:Tokyo stocks have opened flat as a set of fresh Japanese economic indicators showed a patchy recovery for the world’s third-largest economy.




The benchmark Nikkei 225 index added 7.24 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 13,668.37 at the start on Tuesday, after four days of losses that have seen the index surrender 7.6 per cent.




‘‘Markets remain braced in wait for a busy week of data from the United States, with few other incentives on which to trade,’’ said SMBC Nikko Securities general manager of equities Hiroichi Nishi.









10:48am:Some more on Woolies. CBA retail analyst Andrew McLennan said the fall in Woolworths’ share price this morning following the release of its full-year sales results could in part be a reaction to the weak Big W figures.




Mr McLennan said the Big W figures had been hit by poor weather, which in turn affected clothing sales. But he said the food and liquor sales results were fine.




“We know the market was quite a bit weaker in the fourth quarter. The fact that they haven’t fallen by too much compared to the third quarter is a reasonable outcome,” Mr McLennan said.




“However, they are talking about deflation accelerating a little bit, so clearly any of the bulls on the supermarket stocks that were thinking inflation is coming back is going to be [disappointed].”







No deal: Woolworths has not signed the international agreement to improve working conditions in Bangladesh. Photo: Reuters




10:46am:The Australian share market is slightly lower in early trading as investors await a key economic meeting and the release of data in the United States later this week.




‘‘We’re looking at a fairly cautious trading day ahead of some key market events coming up over the next week or so,’’ CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy said.




‘‘Just as we saw yesterday, we’re expecting another light-volume day.’’









10:36am:A survey of 60 miners by business advisory firm Newport Consulting, released this morning, has found that almost half of the respondents were ‘‘not optimistic’’ about their prospects, an increase of 34 per cent from last year. In 2010, just 7 per cent of miners interviewed held such views.




‘‘This year’s report suggests that business confidence in the sector is in free-fall, with leaders clearly displaying a gloomy outlook and significant antipathy towards Australian government policy, together with a lack of confidence in the economy and global market,’’ Newport Consulting said in the report.




The miners said tough and volatile conditions, falling demand and lower commodity prices were driving their pessimistic outlook.




In addition, 44 per cent of the 60 miners surveyed said they were reducing capital investment.




Newport Consulting managing director David Hand said despite the negative prospects, miners could improve their outlook by focusing on extracting more value from their current assets, and if the federal government provided a more supportive policy environment and supported infrastructure growth.









10:32am: Sector by sector on the ASX200 now, materials are higher as the market shows a 0.2 per cent loss:



• Materials: +0.46%


• Utilities: +0.24%


• Energy: +0.23%


• Consumer staples: -2.11%


• Industrials: -0.87%


• Consumer disc.: -0.62%


• Info tech: -0.59%


• Health: -0.21%








10:30am:Woolworths shares fell as much as 4 per cent on the release of the sales result. The shares dipped to $32.41 before recovering to a loss of 2.9 per cent, or $32.78




10:24am:Here’s a bit more on Woolworths.




The firm said Australian food and liquor saw sales increased 6.6 per cent for the 2013 financial year to $40.03 billion. It’s New Zealand supermarkets division lifted by 6.9 per cent, while its petrol division rose by 1.2 per cent.




Big W saw sales grow by 4.9 per cent and the home improvement division by 49.6 per cent. Its hotels division soared by 22 per cent for the year.




Earlier this month, Woolworths forecast bigger losses for its hardware chain Masters. It forecast Masters to record earnings before interest and taxes for 2013 financial year to rise to a pre-tax loss of $157 million.









10:20am:The Australian share market has opened flat, weighed down by the retail and financial sectors.




The benchmark SP/ASX200 index was down 6.2 points, or 0.12 per cent, at 5,040.1, while the broader All Ordinaries index was down 7.7 points, or 0.15 per cent, at 5,020.2.









10:16am:Woolworths’ sales for the year to June 30 have risen 4.3 per cent to $59.16 billion, despite weak consumer confidence and low inflation, the company says.




The supermarket chain said its transformation program had been “rewarded with a strong sales result”.




“Momentum continues to increase in Australian Food and Liquor with comparable sales growth for the second half higher than the first half and the prior year,” Woolworths’ chief executive Grant O’Brien said.




10:08am:Early take – Aussier stocks are higher … just. Up about 0.1 per cent.









9:58am: Another interesting corporate story for this morning, OzForex is considering an initial public offering that may raise as much as $500 million, three people with knowledge of the matter said.




OzForex is meeting investors to gauge their interest in a potential IPO that could take place as early as this year, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified as the process is private. The company’s owners, which include Accel Partners, are also considering a sale of OzForex to a single buyer, the people said.




At $500 million, the IPO would be the largest in Australia in three years. The country’s benchmark SP/ASX200 index has advanced 19 percent in the past 12 months as the central bank cut interest rates to spur economic growth amid a slowdown in China.




Read more.




9:53am: In local corporate news today, Woolworths is due to report its fourth quarter sales. Australia’s top supermarkets group recently tweaked up its profit forecast to expect net profit for the year to June 2013 to rise 5-6 per cent from a year earlier.




Also, Sundance Resources said it expects to wrap up talks with potential partners by the end of 2013 to fund its $4.7 billion Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project between Cameroon and the Republic of Congo. That is about six months later than the company flagged to Reuters in May.    









9:53am:Australian bond futures prices are lower ahead of an update from the US Federal Reserve on the winding back its stimulus program.




The Fed ends its two day policy meeting early and is expected to make an announcement on the winding down of its $85 billion-a-month economic stimulus plan.




St George economist Janu Chan said Australian bond futures weakened in line with US Treasuries overnight.




‘‘While the Fed is expected to keep policy unchanged, guidance on when the Fed will slow down its asset purchases will be watched closely,’’ he said. ‘‘US treasuries fell, suggesting investors were increasing bets that the Fed would continue to prepare markets for reducing its stimulus program.’’




At 8.30 AEST, the September 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.220 (implying a yield of 3.780 per cent), down from 96.255 (3.745 per cent) on Monday. The September three-year bond futures contract was at 97.320 (2.680 per cent), down from 97.350 (2.650 per cent).









9:44am:Australian shares are set to open steady as investors tread water ahead of a US Federal Reserve statement which could shed light on when the central bank may start rolling back its stimulus effort.




Local stock index futures rose 0.1 per cent to 5,014.0, but that was a 32.3-point discount to the underlying SP/ASX 200 index close. The benchmark crept up 0.1 per cent on Monday.




On Wall Street, stocks dipped broadly, with all three major indexes moving lower.




“I think today we saw some better-than-expected economic data in Europe and here, and that’s got people concerned that we are going to see a withdrawal of QE,” said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Equity Management LLC in San Francisco, referring to the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program.




“There’s a concern that whatever the FOMC says or does will lead to a dramatic reaction in the market, much like we saw in June.” 




9:36am: Good morning folks. Welcome to the Markets Live blog for Tuesday.




Contributors: Thomas Hunter, Jens Meyer




This blog is not intended as investment advice




BusinessDay with agencies














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Featured comment:



• 
  

  
  

  Somebody said yest.”No upside to Banks”
  Really, do not understand this reasoning at all. Why Oh why are so many in denial re the Banks? Compare the charts vs the ords or ASX200? Figures do not lie.I do lnow that I have taken a lot of profit from CBA and WBC over the past 3 years
  The Banks, Rock sound, led by the best CEO,s P/E where they should be
  Divs, the best.
  Chief exec that huge bank Goldman Sachs?, forget his name, said”stop yer whinging Aussies and he was right, what the hell are y,all bitchin about
  Um well,
  Plan A when I get out of Europe—talking of banks:))
  Install a batt bank, 24v 800 amp hr– I already have the inverter charger 100 amp at 24v 3000 watts AC and then some solar panels and then get off the grid
  Somebody needs to be held acc for our juice prices
  Nuke power in trouble in De because the country is now running on alt power and guess what, there is SFA sun here in winter, so what’s wrong in Aus?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  stuarth44
  
  Location
  
  Lyon France
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 2:16PM

  
  




• 
  

  
  

  “you can bring down the cash rate 200 basis points, but it doesn’t always translate into good housing data”

  
  

  www.theage.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-stocks-close-flat-20130730-2qvsm.html#ixzz2aVVYAVod

  
  

  Littlelandlords have brought forward the price increases for the next 10 years resulting in 2020 prices in 2010. They have been encouraged to do that by NG and capital gains tax breaks and 30 years of capital gains.

  
  

  Those capital gains were financed by debt, one of the highest mortgage debt to GDP ratios and in the world and a quintupling of household debt.

  
  

  Now renting is cheaper and there is no where for prices to go but down. Piper had to be paid some time Glenn. As if you didn’t know.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 4:26PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Allan, there was a photo of an aging man who had been waiting for house prices to fall. That was 1985. Brisbane houses then were $150,000. You sound like you have unlocked the secret to briging em down. One guy use to sleep under a pyramid another use to shout at rocks. Both methods seem to work, at least they said so. Do you have a better method.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Waiting
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 4:14PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Top was in June 2010. Where have you been?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prices
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:27PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    No house prices in most of Australia on average had one great run between 2003 and 2010 (apart from Sydney which was before that and Perth which was after). If you actually had a clue about investing money you would own your own home outright and not be one of the 1 million loss making littlelandlords around Australia.

    
    

    Look how a financially competent investment by this couple worked out:

    
    

    http://www.nytimes.com/1998/07/13/nyregion/staggering-bequests-by-unassuming-couple.html?pagewanted=allsrc=pm

    
    

    See how their legacy is donating hundreds of millions of dollars to good causes? It’s quite different to littlelandlords who bitterly spout on here how they are going to increase their rents to stem some of their HUGE losses lol Karma sure is a beauty.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:34PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Oh and I would pay $150K for a house in Brisbane even today. But if you like it..

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:34PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Interesting that rates are coming down,but Personal debt is out of control and the Government keeps borrowing and everyone thinks that rates will staydown forever.Money is leaving in Billions,only one way to get it back”,Higher Rates”and higher dollar.Stockmarket a poor mans gamble!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  paulie
  
  Location
  
  next suburb over
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 4:02PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yes many Australians can’t even afford to pay their electricity bills on time or put petrol in their cars yet some deluded people seem to think the average Joe earns so much money (if they haven’t been one of the poor people laid off as unemployment rises) to pay for ever larger mortgages and rent increases.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:40PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The RBA would much rather talk the AUD down instead pushing rates lower. Anyway, if Shane Oliver reckons a cut is on the cards, it’s a sure bet it won’t happen.

  
  

  On the other hand, Stephen Koukoulas, has accepted a cut as a sure bet. And if we are on the subject of dodgy advice, let’s face it, he’s never been wrong.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Adam I
  
  Location
  
  Keilor
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 3:56PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Another strong day from the Big Fella…on the way to $80…The bloke who keeps adding to his $60 shorts was last seen heading to his local CBA branch for yet another loan! OMG!!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  which bank?
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 3:40PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Close CBA 64.05 short again 65.50. Thanks for paying me back 95% of the dividend.

    
    

    www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-italy-worries-spark-selloff-20130226-2f2lv.html#ixzz2aVXcpESS

    
    

    Avg $70.40.

    
    

    Stop making stuff up.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prices
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:29PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “The financial advisers who put their clients into LM Investment Management’s frozen funds stand to collect millions in commission before their clients see any return.”

  
  

  www.theage.com.au/business/lm-frozen-funds-commissions-before-client-earnings-20130730-2qw7z.html#ixzz2aVCSutwH

  
  

  And that in a nutshell is what is wrong with financial services – run by spivs and rent seekers, charlatans and outright crooks.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 3:06PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Allan here is LM Investments Peter Drake’s house on the market:

    
    

    http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-mermaid+beach-113601955

    
    

    It’s a nice house but $20 mil? That’s Sydney Harbor money. Ludicrous. I think it might sell for about $12 mil in this market if involved parties get VERY LUCKY.

    
    

    Take a good look littlelandlords. Take a long hard look. This is what happens when you get spruiked “property prices only go up”, “Guaranteed rental yield”, “Guaranteed rental yield + big asset price growth”. This is where your money goes. To people like Peter Drake and associates of LM Investments.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:42PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  $A to be pounded back to 80c in short order. Not to late to short it. Who got on at $1.03+?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 3:03PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    nah, not quite that good. Got on board on a smidgen over 97c.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:16PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I did in late April. No talent involved I assure you, just an uneasy feeling that things couldn’t stay the way they were and I could see my investments devalue by anything up to 15%. As it is, the two thirds I held on to did devalue, of course. Life’s like that.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Panhandler
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:35PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Exactly Allan. Hm.. let’s see. The AUD/USD has traded between US$0.61 and US$1.10 in the last 5 years alone. Yet many Australian investors went long AUD assets at around or above parity. HOW DUMB AND FINANCIALLY INCOMPETENT CAN YOU BE. Why are you now surprised your AUD assets are getting CRUSHED relative to other EASILY accessible USD denominated assets?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:36PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I NEVER say there is talent involved when it comes to anything I do.

    
    

    You could say I’m a muppet.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:46PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Pushed a big slab of my super offshore at $1.06. Sometime in the next 30 years I will bring it back.

    
    

    

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Roger
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:56PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  What Stevens may as well be saying is, “House prices aren’t rising as rapidly as we want them to, and we must do anything and everything to prop them back up again. We must not surrender to lower house prices. We must fight them on the beaches etc. etc.”

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Don’t Prop Up the Ponzi
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 2:55PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    House price have not been rising for 3 years now… rates wont help it!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:52PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I tend not to bother listening to the reserve bank or any government organisations economic predictions. I remember the reserve bank raising interest rates right into the GFC, I think they walk around with blinkers on. And cast your mind back to the last couple of budgets and treasuries predictions???

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  buysell
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 2:47PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Where is glass half full fellow today?
  After all the kind remarks for him yesterday
  regarding him calling all and sundry fools has made him to crawl back into hjs shell. Oh never mind ,he’ll be back tomorrow trying to get the housing prices to collapse. It’s been 3 years now and we’re still waiting.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  pest from the west
  
  Location
  
  Lowood. QLD
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 2:17PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    pest. You need to do some research. House prices are down since 2010… except Sydney? Or is the ABS chart wrong?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:23PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Figures do not lie”

    
    

    LOL which figures are those? Resource boom over and nothing to fill the gap. And no, Asia doesn’t need Australia’s “financial services”. Australia is heading for a significant fall in its standard of living. Ross Garnaut has already explained it to you.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:30PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    .Aww… UBS predicting $71/MT. Iron ore is not rare you know. No reason to stay in WA anymore.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:41PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yep and Sydney hasn’t beaten inflation for 10 ears. Pest is just grumpy he has to dig holes in some godforsaken hellhole.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:43PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    House prices will never collapse in the land down under. Speculators will come and go but the great Australian dream is alive and well. We as a people are not that dumb that we will sell for a loss. Houses are bought to make homes for families through the passage of time. DYOR clowns!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Captor
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:11PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    LOL Clown: “Houses are bought to make homes for families”. there are over 1,000,000 yes you read that right over one million littlelandlords making rental losses.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:21PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Which ABS Chart is that Lib? Just had a look at their website and it says up 2.6% in year to March 2013.

    
    

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Real World
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:24PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Houses are bought to make homes for families through the passage of time. DYOR clowns! “

    
    

    If that was true we would not have inflated market and the most expensive realestate in the world. If you DYOR you would figure out that in current market investors and speculators outnumber “families ” by wide margin, and to investor and speculator house is just another asset to be got rid off when things go down hill.. and down hill we are headed.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dj77
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:30PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    But down since the peak in June 2010. Comprehension fail. Oh and that’s -10% in real terms.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:38PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    POOR parrot Lib is that your idea of a collapse ? 2% fall you say. More like a breather. If you expect a straight line aiming upwards that explains your whining bleats .
    When I first bought my house in Sydney the
    prediction of $1,000,000 prices for homes at the end of the century. No-one believed it then including your parents. Unfortunately it looks like they have imprinted on your brains their pessimistic views.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    pest from the west
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:55PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    LIG – here is a good article. RBA is worried big time.

    
    

    http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/sp-ag-140313.html

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:02PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Only person whining is you pest. -10% in real terms and rental losses. Ouch.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prices
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:31PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Fair call Allan, as I wqasn’t clear. What I meant was that, while priced dropped about 4.4% from their Dec 10 high to its low in March 12, it has actually started rising again and is up 2.6^ in the last year.

    
    

    Lib, I actually think that RBA article supports my view, esp. the conclusion which states:

    
    

    “A range of indicators suggest that low interest rates have been supporting the established housing market, and prices have been moving higher in many markets, though they remain below earlier peaks in most”

    
    

    I agree that property prices are unikely to rise much in a low inflation/low interest rat environment (there’s a great RBA paper supporting this), but I can’t see property dropping 30% even if Oz has another recession.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Ral World
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:54PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Somebody said yest.”No upside to Banks”
  Really, do not understand this reasoning at all. Why Oh why are so many in denial re the Banks? Compare the charts vs the ords or ASX200? Figures do not lie.I do lnow that I have taken a lot of profit from CBA and WBC over the past 3 years
  The Banks, Rock sound, led by the best CEO,s P/E where they should be
  Divs, the best.
  Chief exec that huge bank Goldman Sachs?, forget his name, said”stop yer whinging Aussies and he was right, what the hell are y,all bitchin about
  Um well,
  Plan A when I get out of Europe—talking of banks:))
  Install a batt bank, 24v 800 amp hr– I already have the inverter charger 100 amp at 24v 3000 watts AC and then some solar panels and then get off the grid
  Somebody needs to be held acc for our juice prices
  Nuke power in trouble in De because the country is now running on alt power and guess what, there is SFA sun here in winter, so what’s wrong in Aus?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  stuarth44
  
  Location
  
  Lyon France
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 2:16PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    How did this gibberish get picked for the featured comment? Are you drunk Stuart?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    geoff
    
    Location
    
    burraneer
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:36PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I remember in 2007, when the index peaked, many people thought banks had more upside. They turned out to be right because after falling 60% and needing taxpayer backing, the banks are now much higher. Add in the massive capital raisings and their market caps are much higher.
    There’s always potential for more upside, problem is the downside risk. Why would you buy at these prices, just to get a 4-5% return. You can get risk free returns close to that.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    buysell
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:40PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Stu
    The upside to banks is the dollar dropping. In world terms they make the most profit and as our currency declines… foreign cash will flood the bank sector for the healthy divs. This is the risk I saw a month+ ago with shorting. The Aussie markets could stagnate for 10 years but the banks will reap and sow profits till death to us part. If the ASX can retain this 5k+ mark AND the dollar hits 80c… who knows… a local rally could eventuate. End of the day, local industry is going to die a slow death.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:45PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Buysell
    Clearly you have it wrong
    The guv, guaranteed the deposits to tune One mill per person
    The banks in Au have never ever needed assistance and because of capital holding base, never will
    The banks dropped with sentiment, that is all, like sheep, aussies all bolted for the gate
    So I held, bought more wbc at botton 14 dollars As for the other comment above yours
    Not worth the ink to reply

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    stuarth44
    
    Location
    
    Lyon France
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:55PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Greetings to Stu. Did you sell in May and go away. I wish I had have done so. Enjoy your trip.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Wally
    
    Location
    
    Flynn
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:31PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Lib:)
    Well need that, because when I left Au in May, it was .78 Eu , now ,68, personally I do think the dollar has dropped too far, but with Uncle Glenn around, sure it,ll go South more

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    stuarth44
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:33PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Joe Hockey is pushing hard to convince the car industry that he will return the FBT benefit to this industry. MMS is looking better all the time.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Wally
  
  Location
  
  Flynn
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 2:03PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hockeynomics in all its glory.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Flying pigs, flying whales, not much difference really

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:34PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Could always get your man Swannie in as his adviser @Mitch…the Surplus Kid lol

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Joeconomics
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:48PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Of course he is. Those porsche leases are going to cost a motza for his rich mates….

    
    

    Don’t worry. He’ll replace the lost income by slash and burning payments to the disabled, unemployed and retired, who are just leaching of the system

    
    

    Capitalism at its finest!!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Real World
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:31PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  You were a little harsh yesterday Gordon – I actually converted a swag of underperforming stocks to ETFs denominated in US dollars in April so got the full benefit of the recent AUD devaluation. My move yesterday was to take a little profit from the bank stuff I own – which at a third of my portfolio is a little heavy at present, I am thinking – and cover myself for Stevens’ speech today and the Federal Reserve stuff later in the week. So far my investment yesterday in USD is worth over 2% more than I bought it for. So far so good, I think. Pretty much everything is green for me today. We amateurs have to start somewhere.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Panhandler
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:57PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Fools rush in where (market) angels fear to tread!” Today’s market is picking up as of late, please see above.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Prophet
  
  Location
  
  Wally Street
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:52PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Stevens played down concerns that rising home or asset prices might stand in the way of a cut, saying that low rates were intended to nudge investors toward taking slightly more risk”

  
  

  www.theage.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-dollar-dives–no-joke-20130730-2qvsm.html#ixzz2aUtB8k2l

  
  

  LOL what a goose. No wonder Note Printing was so corrupt.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:49PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Spot on Allan, spon on…once again!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Prophet
    
    Location
    
    Wally Street
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:56PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Add to JBH shorts $18.75. Gift. LNC short 14% in the money. Who got on?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:47PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    This week, I picked shorts in CBA, ILU, ORI, NCM. So far 3 blacks and 1 red.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gekko
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:55PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The stock market is being rehaped slowly by the digital revolution.Each day a clue emerges -Eg Pixie photos- on the way the world is going.Invest folks in companies that are embracing digitalisation from equipment to apps/strategies etc.Avoid the companies theat are not adapting they will be decimated quicker than anyone will realise.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Charlie and Lola
  
  Location
  
  richmond
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:41PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Ok, the dollar is under 91 cents. This represents a 15% discount on local house prices to overseas buyers over April. Is there anything stopping an overseas buyout of local housing which would help to inflate your bubble.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Wally
  
  Location
  
  Flynn
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:39PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Who would live in those houses bought by overseas buyers. If rented out the houses would have to be managed locally. Fees costs would not make the exercise worthwhile. A declining economy could see the value of those houses fall. Overall sounds like a great way for overseas investors to lose money.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:21PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    yes there is. the prospect of another 15c drop. Possible?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Green Sheep
    
    Location
    
    lighthouse
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:49PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Some more from the RBA governor, who noted the importance of a recovering in business confidence.”

  
  

  Cutting rates does not increase confidence, it signals economy is in a gurgller.

  
  

  Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-waiting-for-stevens-20130730-2qvsm.html#ixzz2aUob4pkt

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Dj77
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:34PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “saying that low rates were intended to nudge investors toward taking slightly more risk.”

  
  

  So nation with highest private debt per capita needs to be nudged into more risk? In other words people have started to be responsible and save hence the rate cuts to “force them” into risk. If anybody needed a proof of last ditch to save ponzi scheme in this country here it is. Never felt better deciding to move to USD even if I did miss the dip.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Dj77
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 1:31PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  How low do interest rates have to go before housing picks up. The prospects are for years of low rates which should be encouraging first time buyers. At a 6% return and all the headaches of renting why bother. Was it Allan who wanted landlords to provide more housing.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Wally
  
  Location
  
  Flynn
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 12:44PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Exactly. “Emergency level” interest rates yet house prices are falling lol Can you work it out yet? Do you comprehend that a nothing house in a nothing suburb that sold for AUD$500k while the AUD was around parity with the USD is one of the biggest jokes in international finance in recent memory? Come on get your guitar out and play and sing along:

    
    

    Down, down, prices are down
    Down, down, they’re staying down
    Down, down, deeper and down
    Down, down, prices are down…

    
    

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embeddedv=GdV4pr4frd4#at=33

    
    

    LMFAO!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:53PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Because even if rates are ZERO, repayment on 650K median Sydney unit is over 500pw over 25 years. That is at Interest Rate of ZERO.

    
    

    Even if RBA cuts to ZERO, due to borrowing costs banks can not go past 4.0-4.5% as seen in USA. In short borrowing cost are as cheap as they can get and yet people are staying out of market ,,, this tells you what??? Rates are irrelevant if something cost too much. That explains why construction is dying and only upgraders and silly late come would be investors are buying few overpriced shoe boxes in Sydney. Nasty wake up call coming in 2014 but it will be too late for most.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dj77
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:53PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The houses are too expensive….Not manny want to have a big mortgage hanging around his neck with not so strong employment prospects? In the end a house is worth as much
    as prospective buyers want to pay for it!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    The Romaniac
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:54PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Interest rates is only one variable. House prices have to come down significantly before movement in inetrest rate will help the housing market. Even at zero inetrest rate the mortgage is too high because houses prices are the highest in the world. Rise in unemployment and flat wages makes it even worse. We are selling houses to outsiders and locals have been made there tenents by courtsy of our pollies and selfish buisiness men. Jack Nasser rightly said we are not patriotic enough and pollies are the least of them who refuse to look after own people and selling assets to foreigners. .

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    xyz
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:00PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I don’t think it’s an issue of “how low interest rates can go” but rather how low the VALUES of real estate must go for housing to pick up. I personally won’t purchase anything even at 0% interest rate…sorry. I require at drop of around 60% from today’s values. Today’s new generation is much much smarter and they will never ever get involved with such huge mortgages, they will never sacrifice their sanity, health and life to boost the banks’s (and their investors) profits. Most will remain either single or in a lifetime relationship, avoiding marriage, deciding either not to have any kids or much much later in their life, independent, smart, tech savvy, flexible, adaptable and uninterested in providing the “old” generation’s free easy lifestyles, No Siree. How do I know? I AM one of them.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Prophet
    
    Location
    
    Wally Street
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:12PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    What headaches do you refer to in regards renting? My experience over the years has been that renting is much easier. All repairs / issues are dealt with by landlord. He can stress about property market, interest rates, water rates, council land rates, etc.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Irish Phil
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:12PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The fate of housing all depends on how the economy goes. Who in their right mind would buy a house if they weren’t secure in their job and which bank would lend them the money. Given the downturn in the economy following the end of the mining boom housing won’t pick up until the economy does. That isn’t good news for suppliers of building materials and retailers of household furnishings. No use increasing grants to home-buyers, that just gets added to the cost of the house. Only the builder benefits.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:27PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Jeez. Change the record.

    
    

    Did you guys cut and paste your posts from yesterday?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:39PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Mitch of ACT building material and DYO providers like Bunnings and Masters etc actually do quite well in property markets like this. People think that if they buy some materials from Bunnings or Masters and do really bad quality renovations on their homes (yes they do renovations even though they aren’t a qualified, builder, electrician, plumber etc) that they will then sell their property for more. But surprise surprise people buying property don’t want damaged messed up properties with building, electrical, plumbing “renovations” etc that need to be ripped out and re-done because they either haven’t got the proper approvals for the work or it is of such low quality it needs to be ripped out/knocked down and re-done by someone who is actually licensed and qualified to perform the work.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:18PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Is there anybody out there shorting iron ore producers? I shorted AGO few days ago when it was $0.9 and I reckon iron ore prices will go back to $120 mark. Current prices are not sustainable plus already there is a reduction in iron ore shipments to China.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  P. Rav
  
  Location
  
  Short Iron Ore
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 12:41PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I think this trade was in the last few months. FMG was worth $3 + recently because of high prices and high volumes. I then sold at $3.63. You are probably late to this trade in my opinion.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:57PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    very risky to short this one IMHO, maybe you can look at this…

    
    

    Atlas Iron (AGO)

    
    

    Brendan Fogarty says iron ore prices have been volatile this year. The price was around $US155 a tonne in March and fell to $US110 in June. Recently it was trading at $US130 a tonne. Due to the weaker Australian dollar, Fogarty says the iron ore price in Australian dollars is close to its highs.

    
    

    Fogarty says listed producers have been slow to react to this recovery, with most stocks only now starting to recover from significantly sold off positions. He says a strategy is to choose your preferred iron ore listed exposure and wait for a share price reaction if and when the producers beat the current downbeat earnings expectations.

    
    

    “My preferred mid cap iron ore exposure is Atlas Iron,” he says. “With an estimated FOB (free on board) break even cost around $A80 a tonne amid near term production growth, I expect Atlas to be one of many mid cap iron ore producers re-rated in a more stable iron ore price environment.”

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Looking for Value
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:00PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Interesting, thanks for the feedback guys with iron ore price projections this is a very tempting trade. Back to gold old days when AGO was $0.7.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    P. Rav
    
    Location
    
    Brisbane
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:38PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  This inactivity is so boring. Where is the daily euphoric 80 point gain followed by a painfully slow deflation for the rest of the day? I’m starting to miss the boom and bust ASX of yesteryear!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  panda
  
  Location
  
  perth
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 12:22PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Index trading is always boring. Lots of activities and HUGE short term swings beneath the surface.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:59PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    If back door benny doesn’t suggest QE will be tapered in the near future, we can then expect a big rise.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    boo
    
    Location
    
    coogee
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:46PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Healthy food and healthy price chart for Freedom Food (FNP), time to take some profit off the table. Also taking some profits on GBT.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Small Cap Man
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 11:42AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Why profit taking? You don’t think they will go higher?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Short Iron Ore
    
    Location
    
    Brisbane
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:46PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    they will continue to rise as more and more of the population begin to look into what they are eating.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    tim_r
    
    Location
    
    Brisbane
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:19PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Based on their charts they probably will. But you can make them go even higher by selling some, say half. I have found thru painful experience that the easiest way to spur a share price on is to sell what you have and watch the price soar beyond the sale price you achieved. Works in reverse when you buy.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:42PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Agree with Mitch, rarely pick the highs or lows to buy or sell. Learnt years ago that some shares are influenced by politics, like it or not. MMS has got to be one of the prime examples of a hot tip. Libs have invested too much politics into this issue and as others have said they are a hot favourite to win, like it or not.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Wally
    
    Location
    
    Flynn
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:14PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I’m selling half as Mitch says. I’ll keep riding them unless they drop 15%, then I exit and look for other strong trends.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Small Cap Man
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  10.11am It is Groundhog day.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Jonaze
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 11:38AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    If you completely ignore the days that don’t fit the Groundhog Day hypothesis, then it certainly is Groundhog Day.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    par for the course
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:02PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hullo nice to see you haven’t fallen off the perch.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    pest from the west
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:07PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Wrong as usual.
    Completely understandable that you’ve positioned yourself underneath the perch. That must be where you got your positive outlook and lust for life from.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    par for the course
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:57PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Cheers Pest. Bin O/S.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Jonaze
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:59PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  LMAO at the building numbers. God am I going to go to town on the property spruikers today!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gordon Akman
  
  Location
  
  Broadbeach
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 11:32AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Why? According o Economics 101, low supply usually leads to higher prices.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Real World
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:59AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Have you not read the memo from Dr Willson ?? Its only Sydney property market that matters… if its not in Sydney its not part of Straya. And Sydney has been BOOOMING… according to Dr.Willson!

    
    

    I mean the volumes may be incredibly low , and lack of FHOB (despite emergency low rates ) suggest that its only upgraders buying and selling, which may influence median price index in non realistic way… but who cares we can all retire at 40! This guy at the seminar I went guaranteed it!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dj77
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:09PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    *Puts real estate spruiker’s hat on “Buy now or you will miss out! There’s never been a better time to buy!”

    
    

    *Puts musician’s (and anyone with even a basic understanding of asset prices, wages, interest rates, forex etc) hat on

    
    

    Down, down, prices are down
    Down, down, they’re staying down
    Down, down, deeper and down
    Down, down, prices are down…

    
    

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embeddedv=GdV4pr4frd4#at=33

    
    

    LMFAO!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:02PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “low supply usually leads to higher prices”

    
    

    Supply is not restricted so that argument doesn’t wash. There is no impediment to building except lack of sales. Why? Because prices are too high and have rolled over and everyone knows it, especially FHB’s. Only sales going through now are baby boomers selling to each other.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:45PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Tell me why this would not make sense. Gold Coast property prices are in some cases at a 30% reduction from their highs. 80c AUD attracts more overseas visitors and keeps Aussies in Oz. Occupancy up, room rates up, developer interest up, construction activity up, employment up, pressure on rents through competition for available rooms by locals employed locally in hospitality, tourism and construction. Commonwealth games in 2018 bringing global exposure and every GC R/E agent spruiking their white shoes off. Could it be a perfect storm brewing for the astute property investor with an eye for quality apartments with flexibility to holiday let or rent.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Unusual Suspect
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 1:52PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    lol@Unusual Suspect. Even the Ed putting everything you need to know in bold font on this thread yesterday and today and still you no comprende

    
    

    Let me help you some more why your spruik only belongs amongst the lesser lights in the halls of convention centre paid littlelandlord property investing seminars (no those sharks won’t be giving you a refund and the losses are yours alone to enjoy)

    
    

    1. It is not true Gold Coast property prices are “in some cases at a 30% reduction from their highs.”. The biggest falls in Gold Coast property prices are 60$ and higher (in fact the losses average 60% along Hedges Avenue aka millionaires row). There was a mansion on Sovereign Islands recently where the land was bought for $9.44 million in 2005, $12 million was spent on building costs (so far – isn’t even anywhere near complete) and it sold for $5.3 million. See how different reality is to your spruik of “in some cases at a 30% reduction from their highs”?

    
    

    2. Spruikers and property investing infomercials have been still referring to buyers at these prices as “astute” despite people not even being able to get out at the fairy tale prices of 2010 (forget growth and profit – try HUGE LOSSES).

    
    

    Please keep going property bubble price spruikers – it is important for retail investors to hold you to account for your shameless market place spruiking.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:26PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  If ALP are at $3.10 I might be tempted at that price. Those are pretty sporting odds right now.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Oh_Mighty_Zeus
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 11:27AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I put a $100 on at 3.15. Not overly confident but with Tony Abbott now having to speak publically about policy, the ALP’s chances are continuing to improve!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Real World
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:01PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    you can have unlimited with me…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    hunter the punter
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:09PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Labor will win. Always back self interest. Disastrous for Australia but good for the individual (for now, temporarily, anyway).

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:23PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Hunter: Unlimited odds? Sure!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Oh_Mighty_Zeus
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 4:02PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  3 comments in a hour? Huh? Ya all scared…aren’t ya? Ya don’t know which way its gonna go – up or down – do ya? I’m loaded with shorts of all kinds.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gekko
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 11:14AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Not at all scared but agree that I have no idea how the market will move in the next week or so (other than generally track sideways which it has done since March as I noted it would back then). I still see a reasonable rally into the end of the year though.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Real World
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:05PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    it is not going anywhere until his worship speaks about the fed’s intentions on Wednesday evening..just shows how fickle the markets are

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Captor
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:33PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Just bought back into Emeco Holdings Limited (EHL) at $0.25.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gordon Akman
  
  Location
  
  Broadbeach
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 10:58AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  There is now zero upside for the ASX… only soft non-bank reporting and cuts to growth projections across almost every sector…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Liberator
  
  Location
  
  SEQLD
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 10:48AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    There is a raft of companies the lower $AUD will help earnings

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:20AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It all comes back to price. There’s plenty of stocks out of favour that you only need a little bit of good news and they go up, 10, 20 30%. Even with short term spikes the prices are still fractions of their price when they were in favour.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:30AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hey Lib, 10 contracts today at 5060 closed 5040. Get back in here mate !

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    got brain
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:47AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hey brain! All of my spending capital has been tied up in another lucrative deal!! I cannot short just yet! Watch the dollar dropping, it will prop the banks up! I will have a big cash injection coming in 3 weeks 2.5 days time! Hopefully the yups can push this beast over 5100. Will keep you informed.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 2:22PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  MMS is down 7%, so Labor edges ahead….

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  tango8
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 10:35AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I will take that bet…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    hunter the punter
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:00AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It will bounce again. A day traders wet dream

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    boo
    
    Location
    
    coogee
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:04AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I would go with the bookies opinion.

    
    

    At present on Sportsbet

    
    

    2013 Federal Election Win

    
    

    Coalition at: 1.35
    Australian Labor Party at: 3.10

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Antonius
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:07AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    If ALP are at $3.10 I might be tempted at that price. Those are pretty sporting odds right now.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Oh_Mighty_Zeus
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:23AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yeah I know, I was only really half joking. MMS does seem cheap when the bookies still have a Coalition comfortable win.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    tango8
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:30AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Antonius. 1.35 on the Libs is well below the true odds. It should be 1.46 if Lab is 3.1. Betfair’s got 3.6Lab 1.37Lib.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gekko
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:31AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The Noalition will NOT reverse Labor’s FBT amendments. No gov’t in my long memory has reversed a revenue or savings decision of their predecessors. They just say thanks for the extra cash or savings under their breath and move on.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:37AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I love those opinion polls because the last two I was involved in regarding politics I
    can truthfully say I lied through my back teeth. I may very well be part of the 3% error
    but my choices leaned very heavily to the labor mob . I would rather cut my arm off than put my X next to any of these pretenders . And krudd , well I can’t believe anyone could forget what a useless globe trotting goose he was.
    One thing I know is this , males can not
    be changed. My wife tried it on me and it didn’t work. Old dogs ,new tricks , you know how it goes.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    pest from the west
    
    Location
    
    LowoodQ LD
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:38AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Got to agree with Mitch.

    
    

    There is a problem with the MMS as a proxy for the Aussie election trade; even if the Liberals get in there is not chance in l they will undo the changes.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Roger
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 3:58PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Hmmm WOW reports a healthy earning increase yet stock gets whacked 3-4% lower.

  
  

  not sure i understand the logic of this.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Maybelle
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 10:28AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hmm. I almost bought it yesterday. Maybe I should now? I thought the same. The report seems okay.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 10:58AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    High expectations built into share price. ASX 200 companies will need big surprises on the upside and positive commentary to go higher.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    buysell
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:03AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Its Healthy Earnings has already been priced in a while ago, now it’s time for some quick profit taking and the market is selling because it knows it won’t be so lucky in a few months time; furthermore, WOW’s Masters is a total flop, expensive and will never compete with Bunnings; I’ve checked it out myself a couple of times, and walked out with…….that’s right, Nothing!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Visionaire
    
    Location
    
    Market
    
    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:07AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Metcash (MTS) is getting clobbered as well, down 17c or 4.63% After all, those extra sales at Woolies have to come from somewhere. The grocery retailers just feed off each other by price-discounting in an economy where the population numbers are slow-growing. Thats why Woolies is branching into hardware, anything for extra revenue altho I think that shows they have a screw loose.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 12:14PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Groundhog day.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  geoff
  
  Location
  
  burraneer
  
  Date and time
  
  July 30, 2013, 10:08AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    best sort of days to grab a bargain…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Looking for Value
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:03AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Just as long as you don’t wish you could take it back for a full refund tomorrow. There is no enthusiasm in the market at the moment, nothing to drive prices higher. I’m not expecting good news from the upcoming reporting season. Prices already reflect the expected results and those rices are bound to decline as the economy falls further.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    July 30, 2013, 11:33AM
    

  
  



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