Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
is facing attacks from the opposition for being too soft in
trade and border disputes with China ahead of a visit to the
world’s second-biggest economy that comes months before a
general election.
Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate for the main
opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, told an audience four days
ago that Singh’s weakness had encouraged China’s army to
encroach on Indian territory. “We remained weak when we needed
to be strong,” Modi said, referring to tensions along the
3,500-kilometer (2,175-mile) border shared by the world’s two
most populous countries, which account for a third of humanity.
Modi’s criticism signals a tougher line in relations with
China that could stoke tensions if he manages to unseat Singh’s
government in elections due by May. A military standoff in April
marked the most serious incident between the nuclear-armed
neighbors in a quarter of a century on the Himalayan border
where India and China fought a brief war in 1962.
“A BJP prime minister would be stronger on China in terms
of sovereignty and territorial issues,” said Srikanth
Kondapalli, a professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru
University in New Delhi. “They will build up military assets
and increase infrastructure on the border. The Chinese won’t
like that, and there could be an initial dip in relations.”
Trade Deficit
Singh’s three-day visit, the second for bilateral talks
since he took power in 2004, will include meetings with
counterparts Premier Li Keqiang and President Xi Jinping to
discuss reducing border tensions, boosting trade and easing visa
requirements. The leaders will discuss ways to increase commerce
to a target of $100 billion by 2015, according to India’s
Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh.
India has grown more reliant on China over the past decade,
with two-way trade growing to $66 billion last year to account
for about 8.3 percent of the South Asian nation’s total
commerce, up from about 4.9 percent a decade ago. India’s trade
deficit with China increased to $39 billion last year, climbing
at about four times the pace of total commerce between the
nations during the last 10 years, government statistics show.
“For Singh, this is the last lap,” said C. Uday Bhaskar,
a New Delhi-based analyst at the National Maritime Foundation, a
research group that specializes in security affairs. “On the
two main issues, security and the economy, he has had limited
success negotiating with China.”
Singh hailed stable relations with China over his tenure
for facilitating economic growth, according to an Oct. 20
statement before he left New Delhi. He will travel to Beijing
today after a stop in Moscow.
‘Historical Issues’
“India and China have historical issues and there are
areas of concern,” Singh said. “The two governments are
addressing them with sincerity and maturity, without letting
them affect the overall atmosphere of friendship and
cooperation.”
The two countries may reach an agreement to reduce military
tensions that will probably require both armies to give notice
to the other side when going on patrols and avoid tailing each
other, according to a foreign ministry official with knowledge
of the talks, who asked not be identified because he is not
authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
In April, India alleged that Chinese troops had crossed
into Indian-held territory, triggering a three-week escalation
in tensions that ended with an agreement negotiated by army
commanders. China denied any wrongdoing.
China’s Attention
China would welcome an agreement to relax visa restrictions
and plans to sign cooperation deals with India, Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in Beijing on Oct. 18. She did not
provide details on the agreements.
Indian officials tend to pay more attention to China than
vice versa, according to Li Mingjiang, associate professor at
the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“Whenever China does something, such as developing new
military technology or security policy, strategic observers in
India think they are directed at them,” he said. “Whereas the
Chinese would argue they are aimed at the U.S.”
To be sure, whatever is said on the campaign trail normally
gets toned down once a leader is elected, said Paranjoy Guha
Thakurta, a New Delhi-based analyst who co-authored a book on
Indian politics.
‘Love-Hate’
“The two countries have had a love-hate relationship with
each other,” he said. “There is a growing realization that
even as China and India compete with each other, they will have
to increasingly collaborate with each other. There is no other
way forward.”
The BJP has gained strength after picking Modi as its prime
ministerial candidate last month. It would win 162 of 543 seats
up for grabs, compared with 102 for Singh’s Congress party,
according to a poll released last week by C-voter polling
agency, India TV and Times Now television.
While Chinese leaders will deal with whoever comes to
power, they will probably face a stronger government if Modi
wins, according to G. Parthasarathy, a visiting professor at the
New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research who formerly served
as a diplomat under both Congress and BJP-led governments.
“No government can be weaker on China than the present
one,” he said. “They are starting from a very low base.”
To contact the reporters on this story:
Andrew MacAskill in New Delhi at
amacaskill@bloomberg.net;
Bibhudatta Pradhan in New Delhi at
bpradhan@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Daniel Ten Kate at
dtenkate@bloomberg.net
Singh Attacked for Being Weak on China in Pre-Election Visit
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