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June 24, 2013 – 4:24PM
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Australian shares closed sharply lower as investors remain anxious about US Fed plans to end monetary stimulus.
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- BHP: -3.4%
- Rio: -2.1%
- ANZ: -0.1%
- CBA: -0.5%
- NAB: -1%
- Westpac: -0.6%
- Fortescue: -4.3%
- Woolworths: -0.8%
- Wesfarmers: -0.5%
- Telstra: -1.1%
- Higher crude prices and a substantially weaker Aussie dollar – pushing up the cost of imported fuel – are likely to see domestic pump prices rise considerably over the next few weeks. And indirectly that means that retailers also need to brace for more conservative and price-conscious consumers.
- A petrol price above $1.50 a litre will become more commonplace across Australia in coming weeks.
- Petrol is the single biggest purchase for most households, and even those without a car will feel the pain through higher delivery costs, higher transport fares and increases in prices of goods with a high transport component such as fruit vegetables, meat and seafood.
- A further lift in fuel prices could cause consumers to become more fearful and cautious about spending, especially on discretionary or non-essential items.
- Japan (Nikkei): +0.3%
- Hong Kong: -1.1%
- Shanghai: -0.2%
- Taiwan: -0.5%
- Korea: -0.8%
- ASX200: -1.3%
- Singapore: -0.3%
- New Zealand: +0.1%
- BHP: -2.22%
- Rio: -0.63%
- Fortescue: -1.31%
- Medusa: -12.93%
- Evolution Mining: -9.3%
- Perseus: -9.03%
- St Barbara: 7.92%
- Resolute: 6.25%
- Health: +0.73%
- Utilities: -1.65%
- Materials: -1.44%
- Industrials: -1.35%
- Energy: -1%
- Financials: -0.98%
- Consumer disc.: -0.93%
Uh oh unbalanced, the market is not up 15% in a year. Take into account the falling dollar, cpi your buy and holds are negative. Oops.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:44PMHow many others are finding this waiting game a pain in the butt? While I have little confidence in Joe Hockeys intention to avoid recession, he will certainly help to restore confidence. Alternatively if Bill Shorten can neutralize The Ruddster then that too would restore some confidence. I just want to finish renovating and sell my house. Expecting up to $100k drop in average house price, over next 2 years.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:36PMIt just cracks me up each time I hear speculators being called investors. They are just front running speculators and the more they loose the happier I am. Because I work for a living, I don’t sit around speculating like a bludger . I don’t get tax breaks because I work every day, but speculators get tax breaks for bludging, so lose away you bludgers. To think of yourself as an investor is delusional – not one cent you pay for a share goes to the company you claim to invest in. Not one cent. All you are buying is a speculative instrument from the last bludger who owned it, in the hope that it will go higher, so you can then sell it to some other bludger. And get a tax break.
Commenter
Boris Johnson
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:29PMMy BF and I are both students and saved every penny so we could spend a year in the UK next year. Lo and behold the penny (dollar) has dropped. Not entirely sure if we convert our savings now or wait….until when? Don’t really want to do any panic buying/selling but sort of started to freak out! Any ideas?
Commenter
Whatdoido
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 4:11PMGo to an inexpensive destination and be treated like royalty.
Commenter
Opinion Only
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:34PM
Nothing is ever for certain. Aus dollar has no reason to rise and every reason to fall.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:40PM
LNC Linc energy down 22 cents at 92.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 4:03PMI loled so hard at those who bought in @ $2.99 a few months back
Commenter
got brain
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 4:16PM
we have all been played for suckers mate in the game of life the biggest scam
Commenter
wanganmario
Location
innisfail
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:18PM
LNC went near $3? WOW – funny stuff. Like the people that bought SIR at $4.50… feeling a bit sick now I bet… Fell another 17% or today alone – Muppets.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:37PM
Given bond yields are up over 0.25%, the market has held up well.
Commenter
Relentless
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 4:02PMWe are heading for a possible Hockey induced ression. Given all the nasty fallout from the 1990′s recession can any one remember the effect on bank dividends. Am reluctantly eyeing off CBA as its div is due in August. Target price is $60.but I am edgy I would factor in a 10% max negative impact on divs.
For the purists: Overseas investors have not forgotten that we are the land of fattened divs. They will be working out an exchange rate where reinvestment is justified. I would expect that at 85-90 cents their fingers will begin to twich. but time is running out.Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:31PMI think you are correct BG that O/S investors may come back swinging for anything that gives 5%+ div. But I do not trade on that sentiment – got me hurt a few years ago!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:50PM
who has money to buy in at these prices
Commenter
wanganmario
Location
innisfail
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:28PMDo I sell now and take the 5K loss against this financial year or do I wait a few days and get a good start on next year’s tax loss?
Commenter
Overweight
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 3:17PMyou can carry over capital losses and offset them against capital gains made in future years
Commenter
panda
Location
perth
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:24PM
True. Capital losses carry forward to future financial years. Be aware, that if you’ve gained dividends, that there is 45 day holding period to get full franking credits. Get certainty from a Chartered Accountant Tax expert.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 3:42PM
Nowz the time to get in for some value whilest the suckers and day traders are selling short and jumping out the window..
Commenter
Ashley
Location
Camberwell
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:15PMHeard the same comment two weeks ago.
Commenter
geoff
Location
burraneer
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:29PM
Isn’t it great to be a buyer. They never learn. Look at many of the comments today saying they are selling now when prices are low lol
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:38PM
Good luck with that. This is a day traders market and going in for cheapies to hold may see some hefty mid term losses. Unless you have another SIR up your sleeve in which I would happily like to know!!!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:38PM
The markets have lost all credibility in my opinion – and the penny dropped for me a while back with the ridiculous overreaction to Cyprus how irrelevant the markets now are.
Glad I sold most of my stock a few months ago and put all my money in cash offset against my home loan. Only way to make your money work for you these days. Shorting in sanctioned fraud IMO and its one of the main reasons markets are the disgrace they are.
I’m not putting a cent into these ridiculous markets for several years now. In fact I’m close to closing my trading account. Just need two more stocks to recover a little and I’m out 100%.
Commenter
DJCJ
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:37PMAgree with you on Shorting. But – until it is plain banned I will do nothing but short this market until she bottoms out and this will be a long while to go yet.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:28PM
so you are a loser in the market who would like to quit but can’t; a bear market i would say.
Commenter
nobody
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 3:44PM
Wow – is that a very negative nobody statement?
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:59PM
Credibility: the quality of being believable or worthy of trust.
Sounds like a very human trait. Don’t get confused between human emotion and a market. Before you know it she’ll walk out the door leaving you a mess with only half of your net worth……..wait…what was I talking about again.
Commenter
Emotional Wreck
Location
It’s not me, it’s you
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:50PM
At the weekend I drove past a park in Shepparton (VIC) which contained dozens of fossilised bulls. Brightly painted in a myriad of random colours they stuck out like the proverbials. A closer look showed them as scrawny and gelded. I wondered if this was the future for previous rampant market bulls. The stark reality for those of us who simply want a fat secure dividend so we can get on with life is the risk of getting gelded by the rampaging bears.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:30PMGelding refers to horses. A Steer is the castrated Bovine equivalent.
–Bovine Reference Police
Commenter
BigHatNoCattle
Location
The Farm
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:24PM
Thanks Hat for the info.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:48PM
Space Hippy raises WSA to superbuy.
Commenter
Space Hippy
Location
70s
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:22PMIs that why would-be sellers outnumber would-be buyers 4:1.
Commenter
mitch of ACT
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 3:24PM
What’s that you say, the boom is over. Oh well, at least we got our share of all the super profits with the MRRT. Oh wait, we didn’t…EPIC FAIL!
Commenter
The price is wrong
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:14PMDo any thirty odd year olds really believe their super will still be there when they retire?
Commenter
Haggis
Location
North of Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:12PMNo the boomers will find another way of keeping the gravy train of generational theft going.
When you retire and take the age pension you should lose the right to vote.
Commenter
Opinion Only
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:48PM
Yes – been switching between shares and cash for the past 3 years. Been 100% cash for about a month. And waiting for the dust to settle before re-investing once again in shares. My super has increased 30% in 3 years (9.21% compound interest), whereas the share market index is up 1.8% from 3 years ago (today). I’m with Australian Super, but actively switch to take advantages of opportunities. Will re-enter the ASX around 4200.
Commenter
Doubter
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:13PM
Yes. Oh and thanks for the once in a generation wealth transfer courtesy of suppressed interest rates/central bank conspiracies/stuff….
Commenter
Shallow
Location
Swimming in it
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:41PM
What does everyone think about gold today? Having fallen to 10 year lows is anyone thinking about buying into gold? If so are you looking at physical gold, an ETF or stock in gold miners? For investors who invest in multiple currencies/international markets is there a particular currency/country you favour buying in? Also anyone who thinks gold will fall further feel free to comment on what your thoughts are on gold. Thanks.
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:10PMCertainly not an expert….At what point do supply costs come into the picture As mines shut down then demand pressures will burst through (we hope). And an 80 cent aud will see gold 15% more expensive at todays prices. My reading is that most demand for gold at present is to be used for jewelry and hoarding. Now if the aud overshoots to 70-75 cents then you would be looking at an extra 25% in costs (or profit).
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:57PM
Goldman Sachs reckon gold is on the way to $1100 oz. So, the question is what will push gold down (or even up) as financial markets endure constant turmoil which is what we’re seeing at the moment. A good sign is to look at what Newcrest NCM are doing. They’re closing 3 of 6 mines, and sacking staff as well as 6 billion in impairment charges. So, they obviously think gold is going to be unattractive for some time (how long is anyone’s guess). Otherwise, if they thought gold would soon bounce back up to, say, $1700, they would continue operations status quo. IMO.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 3:07PM
Yeah some people are saying around a US$1000 an ounce. It’s hard to place too much value on investment bank/broker ratings/price targets. It’s funny watching them all come out and change after events/price movements. I can’t pick the exact bottom so I just try to buy closer to the bottom and sell closer to the top. I’m gonna buy some Australian gold mining companies this week and stop when I’ve got a position of about 3% of my Australian stock portfolio.
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:32PM
It’s because of racism and misogyny. I’m so outraged.
Commenter
Meh
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:06PMYou forgot to mention climate change.
Commenter
Meh2
Location
Brisbane
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:31PM
If the market keeps going this way then we will have 70 year olds still working as they can’t afford to retire on their shrinking Super and if the RE bears are correct then trying to down size their house to release some money won’t be an option either. It has already happened in the US and UK
Commenter
MST
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:59PMA 70 year old would not, or should not, be invested in the stock market. They should have it all in a high interest ba….ah…..
Commenter
heybert
Location
Sesame Street
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:10PM
The optimists here will beg to differ! A big balancing act must occur and so far this has not happened in any real way… what is it going to take to bring things back to normal…
Here is an example of laughable:
A. Construction Manager 10 years experience earning $58/hr + Super with no set daily hour limit and paid the same 40hrs for each week worked even if a total of 48hrs was worked – rather stressful and ‘essentially’ personally liable for other peoples stuff ups (safety and delays), and
B. Electrician with 2 years experience charged at $72 inc Super to the project and paid overtime after 7.6hrs for the day – minimal stress and simply following orders.Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:14PM
Unless he/she listened to fund managers and vested advice from one of the thousands of no-idea financial planners of Australia!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:15PM
Re-arranged the letters of you name you have one of today’s top performers excellent long term dividend payers.
You cant judge every stock on the market by the performance of the 200.
Commenter
GS
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:16PM
Hey does anyone know any good investment managers/hedge funds that return 245% a year? Liberator posted today that he/she makes 245% a year return so he/she is not the only one managing these types of returns are they?
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:58PMI know you’re trying to get your point across, but you’re comparing an exceptional return on a single investment with returns on a portfolio (most likely with many securities). Know any fund managers/hedge funds who hold only one asset?
I too hate big noters…….but then I also hate people who constantly post what they’re buying next, or where certain stocks will be in a year.
Get off the Juice Gordy.Commenter
Sceptic
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:12PM
Sure some Bolivian drug lords may offer like return but squeezing the dividend from them may be problematic.
Commenter
Sean
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:14PM
You sound upset with your own trading record, which as far as we know – is nothing.
Here is an idea. Put $5K in to a CFD account, risk 2% per trade with your stop. Make sure you put some smarts in to the long or short position. I run about 80% strike rate this year on the shorts (trade the trend). My gains PER trade are nearly 10% of my trading account total value. Do the math. If you risk the trade but manage the stops, you can EASILY make an 80/20 system. You also have to be awake after midnight… so you can trade the futures at US market open.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:22PM
PS: SIR (which I sold out EARLY, gained nothing and still spewing) went up 50 fold in less than 6 months. You should learn to put some money down Gordon A and take the risk. You might strike it rich.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:26PM
@Liberator 245%? Seriously? You published that on the online national news site for Fairfax? No two ways about it man; that is just plain embarrassing. Expect to be quoted again on that numerous times into the future if you hang around
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:50PM
I am not sure what Gordon A is on about… I have one good year the last 5 and he is going all mental – like taking it personally… funny man/lady. 245% is just the luck of the draw Gordon. Of what I do (all investments, job, incomes etc) the short selling is only 10-15% or thereabouts. So… 245% of a relatively small CFD account is nothing to cry about Gordon. It did not make me rich I can tell you that. It might have offset the capital loss on my home! You can go back 6 months and tally my winning points if you wish. Then cry in your Cornflakes.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:36PM
Gordon Akman. Have a look at Pacific Brands’ PBG graph. Early March 2009, you could have bought them long at just 14 cents. Eight months later, they were selling for $1.42. That’s is a rise of 900% in less than a year. Yes, 245% is possible and just plain stunning and Lib should be congratulated.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 3:38PM
@Gordon Gekko as someone else posted earlier today you should really change your gimmick; the Gordon Gekko gimmick really doesn’t suit your posts. No successful investor would invest 100% of their investment money in one stock. Also, you can praise Liberator’s claim of 245% annual returns all you like. It’s a free country and you and Liberator are free to embarrass yourselves as much as you like.
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:55PM
My psuedo is distinctive. If I change my psuedo, what are you suggestions. And who else agrees with that?
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 4:16PM
Gekko – your name must remain as is. It is brilliant!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:39PM
the future is bright for australia. government just finished the hume hwy – 838 kms after about 150 years and still 60/80 and 100 is some spots. 7 billion to build 7.7kms of road in north west sydney ( which is waiting on private company to bid ) with a monster toll and a fast train on the boards predicted to be up and running in some places by 2070 ish. the most expensine road in australias history planned for melbourne with an equally impressive toll and the pacific hwy not even half done and no second airport for sydney. 457 visas flooding in at 1/4 normal salaries and WW3 in its early stages with China, Russia, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan all squaring up the USA. more record floods than you can poke a stick at and crime going up up and up.
Commenter
smilingjack
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:57PMI drove down it last night and I can assure you the Hume upgrade is not finished. Julia was a little bit too keen to be in Holbrook over the weekend because I still had to drive through the town to get to Canberra.
Commenter
Joe
Location
Geelong
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:42PM
you think you can simply grow your money by parking it in some unscrupulous companies portfolio? You don’t care that your greed is destroying the earth. Do you care about your children and their future? Try investing in your community and your family. Bye bye precious stocks. it was inevitable.
Commenter
josh
Location
melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:57PMIt’s someone else’s problem Josh. My mission here to is to make as much money as possible. Seriously though, anyone who chooses to be born now is a bit of a loser.
Commenter
Wildlife photographer of the year
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:11PM
Do not tell Gordon A this news – he is upset again today for some reason?
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:23PM
just as well we are the envy of the world and not 300 billion in debt
Commenter
Genghis
Location
Lounge
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:50PMI thought we were in debt, thanks to Labor.
Commenter
hr
Location
melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:22PM
Combined national debt of $4T+ or 300% of GDP. Paying this off is proving a little harder than not spending more!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:30PM
Hey does anyone have any ideas about a mania treatment company based in Prahran having an IPO soon? I heard at a dinner party that they might be worth a look because apparently their is a HUGE market for mania treatment products in the Prahran area if you know what I mean…
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:34PMHow bad is the stock balance sheet you hold? Come clean my friend – many shoulders here to cry on.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:32PM
Well I haven’t got a return of 245% in the last financial year like you posted you have. What possessed you to publish that your investments have returned 245% in the last financial year on this national news site? Were you trying to embarrass yourself in front of the nation or weren’t you able to see that result?
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:55PM
Wake me up when it hits 3000. Thats the time to buy back in.
Commenter
Bazza
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:31PMLike your work Bazza. I have a tent, matches and some water purifying tablets ready if drop by that figure.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:07PM
Invest in Abbotts 100 Dams project,you cant lose (snicker)
Commenter
Steeden
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:29PMUS Bonds selling off already today…. should be an interesting week.
Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:29PMDon’t worry…..the U.S. Gov will just print more money to give to people to buy bonds. The problem is that so much printed, borrowed money has bought bonds that they may not be worth anything.
Commenter
Bazza
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:40PM
AllOrds is collapsing towards 3000 at a rapid rate of knots. Short short short forever as the EASIEST WAY to MAKE $$$$ in history!!
Welcome Australia to the eternal darkness of the SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION
Commenter
assad
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:28PMyou sound like a fun person to hang out with on the weekend
Commenter
worried33
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:54PM
assad – I thought I was the most pessimistic chap here… maybe 2nd to Allan! But your near hysteria is actually feasible in that this market can easily test the water again at the 3000 mark! Was pretty close a few years ago and we are in worse shape now than we were back then!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:03PM
@LIberator – 3000 you are joking right?! Really not a chance of this. The US is slowly recovering whether you agree or not and we, at the moment, are simply reacting to the correction that they are having due to reduction in QE. The US market will rise again, and soon, and we will follow, or at least stabilize. 3000 not a chance. Also not sure just what you are so happy about. Sure shorting delivers profits quickly but you can only go to zero, if the buyers dont reappear at some point there is nothing left for you to short….is there?
Commenter
Bill
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:32PM
True Bill – need buyers to keep the shorts working – no doubt about it.
The market just scared the 3000 mark a few years back… to think it cannot hit this level again would be chance only that the current debt levels around the world and money printing by various do not flatten out the top 10 Sovereigns at the same time. I am sure pumping $85B a month through the financial market will keep the USofA looking fine until we get a paper jamb…
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:34PM
This `primitive economy’ of digging stuff up and shipping it off, makes everything possible, including the gold that’s used inside the CPU of the geek’s computer!
Commenter
gotmilkmoney
Location
Geelong
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:06PMWe are not very sustainable here in Austraya that is for sure. Manuf = dead. Argi = dead. Retail is dismal except some over priced coffee shops that are doing well. Construction = dead. Mining is on the back burner but is still realistically speaking, doing ok. So what else do we have?
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:11PM
‘straya has a great ‘connomy!
Commenter
gotmilkmoney
Location
Geelong
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:02PM
not a word to Julia/Swan lest you be locked up for the treasonous high crime of speaking bad about the Stray’an ‘conomeeeeee!!
Commenter
panda
Location
perth
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:33PM
I think we need to STOP using the words wiped and lost. The money is still there, it is just somewhere else for a moment. And if you were left holding the paper then someone front running has the difference. Probably the super computers used to place micro trades a billion times a day. People say casino’s are rigged! Where do you think they learnt their tricks! the money changers baby!
Commenter
Mark C
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:06PMIt has gone from Mom and Dad accountants and our super and into speculators accounts. The superannuation system is corrupt and needs a major enquiry
Commenter
David1
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:18PM
VRT which recently soared, seems to be subject to profit takers. Definetely a share which is pregnant with possibilities, VRT will be watched, like all healthcare shares. Health should be a winner, no matter what, under a new government. (Except public health of course).
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:06PMI’m frightened to have a go long, and Allan keeps putting the pressure on about how many trades we’ve done. I could’ve B CBA at 6530 and S 6600 but I was too scare the thing might fall to 6400. What am I gonna do with this falling market with these Chinese grinning in the background? Ah well, cash is king.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:59PMThose comments are not worthy of that man’s name….even if he is fictitious. Find a new pseudonym Princess.
“Money never sleeps pal”
Commenter
Bud Fox
Location
Rehab
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:45PM
Looks like you paid ~$70 for CBA Buddy! They’re on the way to $60 or less for a 6% yield or better.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:24PM
LOL people never learn. They bought into Myer and lost 65% and now iSelect , another middleman, add no value, spiv’s offering. Short. $$$$.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:56PMIf you are shorting middlemen. What about the middleman that is Flight Centre?
Commenter
tango8
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:10PM
iSelect don’t even compare all the insurance companies. The cheapest providers don’t even show up in their search results. The ones that pay the most in commission get listed… so what’s the point of their website?
You can bet brokers pumped this to mum dad investors who enjoy the iselect commercials on tv! Instead of using Jennifer Hawkins, they used that fat bald guy from the ads, ripping off “The Office”.
Commenter
GS
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:15PM
I think Myer is looking like a good buy at $2.26. I also like Cash Converters around $1.05.
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:22PM
They will try their best to hold the price up – about 2 weeks then down she goes.
Just like Facebook – a zero sum company that adds very very very little.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:29PM
We should all stop wearing blue ties until the market recovers.
Commenter
PM
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:53PM11:29 am What “r” says the PM
Here’s one example among many,
‘Bell Potter’s always colourful Charlie Aitken has flagged Westpac as being a prime pick this morning, saying that the collapse in the Australian dollar will pull eastern Australia out of its prolonged recession’
This is what happens when the PM and RBA governor both deliberately state they are collapsing traditional sectors to make way for a mining boom that will last for a decade.
That is why they use the word ‘complex’ rebalancing which means they stuffed up and have to fix it real quick.
Commenter
Opinion Only
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:49PMThe 12.14 pm blog quotes the PM as saying that the “economy is growing stable and strong”. Please, someone tell her she’s dreaming
Commenter
Daryl Kerrigan
Location
brissie
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:34PMThe closer Tony gets to PM the worse the markets. When Tony starts cutting the markets will drop big time.
Commenter
Bazza
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:37PM
you still listen to anything this PM has to say?
Commenter
Klouds123
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:26PM
She also reckons she has a chance of being re-elected prime minister. delusional
Commenter
panda
Location
perth
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:36PM
Oh goody, another market crash….Don’t forget you’ve got to stay in for the long haul……lol
Burn, baby, burn….market inferno…….
Commenter
street professor
Location
sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:28PMQantas shares are becoming a bit of a worry, well down since mid May, lost a third of their value. Any clues why?
Commenter
timjackelton
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:24PMThe Omaha Oracle hints that airlines will always be a dead loss, no exceptions.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:42PM
The price of jet fuel is also taking off, even if travel is up. I tip more the market sentiment than anything else though.
Commenter
gotmilkmoney
Location
Geelong
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:49PM
Falling $A, falling sharemarket, falling interest rates, overseas holidays are getting to be dearer so less long-haul travel by Australians. Then add to that more competition, higher fuel prices and the prospect of lower credit card surcharges. Never invest in airlines. They are just one major incident away from a crash in value.
Commenter
mitch of ACT
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:53PM
have my order in for a small parcel at $1.23. Should fill sometime this week .
Commenter
got brain
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:05PM
The company literally insolvent, any clue?
Commenter
one week strike
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:22PM
Grumpy staff, with rubbish movies and annoying marketing of Australia ad nausea. Tight with alcohol and tighter with baggae and fees. Time to go
Commenter
Genghis
Location
Lounge
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:53PM
Nathan Tinkler leaving WHC gave a boost to its price. So too, we could assume that when Rudd leaves we can expect a positive outcome. Rudd is not dissimilar to the Verroa mite. Sucking the life out of a failing ALP. He is undermining all facets of ALP honey making. Its not really his fault though. He shows the danger of putting small minded individuals into positions of power. Unfortunately, like Verroa, the parliament is infested with small minds!
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:12PMJust picked up some more Physical Gold and Silver, takng advantage of recent price drops and exchanged some Fiat for Metal
Commenter
JohnO
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:12PMNice call JohnO.
I’m waiting till I see gold break 1250-1200 and silver maybe sub 17USD.
The USD rally has a little bit more to run, which will help put downward prices on commodities.
Once they’re in those price ranges i’m loading up the boat with phys and shares…. Good luck.Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:20PM
It will make very nice jewelry if you know a person to make it for you cheap!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:21PM
Smart move John, I’m doing the same. A few commenters on here may have a go at you, but you’ll be grinning in the long term.
Commenter
Fred
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:25PM
Do you goldies recommend buying from Perth Mint? If so why?
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:07PM
To ‘Bearly Gruntled’, I’ve done a fair bit of business with the Perth Mint over the years. Never had a problem with them
Commenter
JohnO
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:00PM
Buying gold in A$ is tricky. With a falling A$ and falling gold, I don’t buy it. And if gold was to surge then most likely would A$ too. So there just isn’t a way to win, unless there was a breakout in gold only. The you’ll be laughing.
Besides with all this deflation talk I wouldn’t buy gold yet. I do believe worldwide debt will eventually lead to a double-digit inflation and it might happen so fast you will get whiplash and then it will be too late to buy gold. But timing your gold buy perfectly is just impossible. You just got to be lucky.
Someone asked about Perth Mint.. I have used their depository services before. They could work on their customer service skills. The phone service is so blunt that I found myself apologising – and I’m the bloody customer! Not going to use them next time, but that is mainly due to the fact that I don’t want to buy gold in A$.
Commenter
hr
Location
melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:16PM
Interest rates are low, where can our money go?
Commenter
Knee Jerk
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:10PM70% clearance rate! Take the the agent, they can show u the light
Commenter
in domain
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:24PM
70% clearance rate means jacksh*t in terms or growth in house prices. It just means that property is sold because sellers are keen to sell.
Commenter
hr
Location
melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:50PM
hr – spot on.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:41PM
Seems to be a death of spruikers today. Where are unbalanced, five. pete of Prahran and supplements boy?
Not to worry we can listen to the Spriukbot Telephunken U-47.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLTfsUsyotcfeature=player_embedded
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:06PMOh wow a Frank Zappa reference, with leather?
Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:23PM
you do mean dearth I presume our congenial and literate friend
Commenter
edumacated
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:32PM
If the world’s selling… who’s buying?
Commenter
MrSteve
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:02PMBuying – you mean shorting. We are taking the sell down and making coin on the way. Trade the trend – not fundamentals!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:22PM
People who like to buy when prices are low?
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:25PM
People content to sell at a loss later on. “It can’t go any lower!”
Commenter
Ride em’ cowboy
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:03PM
Who’s buying ?
‘Greater fools’.Commenter
Robert
Location
Brisbane
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:26PM
Superannuation fund managers. Yes, zero risk and continuous fees and commissions. Australian savings going down the gurgler and straight into private pockets! A total farce
Commenter
panda
Location
perth
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:38PM
My property prices didn’t crash. Shares are for mugs.
Commenter
Anne
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:59AMReally? I guess you didn’t make 125% on shorting fmg. No you have your money tied up in assets returning 1.5% pa. You are actually subsidising your tenants about $25K per annum. Good for you.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:25PM
Have you sold your properties Anne? If not then you don’t know if, or by how much, their prices have crashed. Come back to us when you’ve made your sales.
Commenter
Davo
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:26PM
don’t speak too soon
Commenter
worried33
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:27PM
Just read this and weep. Jealous you didn’t make a killing in the Sydney property matket in the last 10-15 years?
http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/property-prices-on-rise-as-buyers-scrap-over-auctions-20130621-2oo9o.htmlCommenter
Property Smart
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:09PM
LOL. She’s seething with rage!
Commenter
brow beaten son
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:53PM
Sydney property hasn’t beaten inflation for 6 years. In other words you’re going backwards.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:40PM
Uh oh, here we go. Who’s ready for another killer week? One has to wonder where the bottom will be though, doesn’t seem to be any good news on the horizon! Don’t buy into the bull traps!
Commenter
panda
Location
perth
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:53AMAnd this is the week that all of the dogs get dumped to offset capital gains in other stocks for tax purposes. That will only drive the indexes and all other stocks down as well.
Commenter
mitch of ACT
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:59PM
Ding dong 4700.
Quick take some supplements and get into fmg before it’s too late! Oops five is down 10% since last week.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:48AMNext stop 4400!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:39PM
Gee aren’t the bulls nasty in a falling market. The recent diatribe from unbalanced being a perfect example. Buy and hold he says. Yeah good one unbalanced, Your portfolio has made no capital gains since 2003 in real terms. He also claimed the market was going to 6,000 this year. Isn’t going the wrong way and isn’t is clear as he so indelicately put it who doesn’t know s**t from clay.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:46AMWhere is out good friend unbalanced? Been very quite lately – I am ‘guessing’ margin calls got the better of him/her!!!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:31PM
The problem with holding the stock in a falling market is the long trader misses the opportunity to buy MORE stock at lower prices. That’s why cutting losses is so important in a falling market and keep out until it settles down at a lower plateau. As an example, look at NCM, they’re now under $10, so I can now buy 26% more stock than when they were at $12. As well I think they have a way to go further yet.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:42PM
How much did you lose shorting ANZ earlier in the month at $26? Do you make 245% a year return like Liberator or more/less?
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:55PM
Gordon A – I short the index and not individual stocks, but, since you are new to all of this and obviously never read any of my previous comments, the ED may let your obvious half truths slide for a little while longer (keep digging that hole!). When you are done, please wipe up the milk, pick up you pencil case, pack your bags and throw the harp in the bin on the way out.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:48PM
Aww.. Liberator. This website isn’t all about you. This was Allan of Prahran’s comment I posted on. It was Allan of Prahran who posted on this site earlier this month that he was going to short at ANZ when it was at $26. It’s you and Allan that make stuff up like “I lost 40% on a house purchase at Broadbeach” or “I was buying the ASX 200 index or ASX 200 stocks when the ASX 200 was 6000″. I was surpsised the ed published that actually. If you can’t hang with the big dogs stay on the porch, cry baby.
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:07PM
Nope. Short CBA and NAB. 7% in the money. I post my trades. You – zip. Try harder.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:43PM
You implicated me.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:47PM
One thing I’ve learned from my whipping in the GFC is to just hold on tight and DON’T sell no matter how low it goes or you’ll kick yourself when you miss the rebound. You might have to hold your stock for a couple of years waiting for it, but if you haven’t over invested and didn’t use leverage/margin loans that shouldn’t be a problem.
Commenter
JohnW
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:45AMthe better option would be sell and buy in cheaper, therefore you own more stock for the same amount of $$$ outlay, plus can minimise tax by capitalising on negative returns.
Commenter
worried33
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:29PM
The danger is that the share prices of some stocks fall so far that they breach their banking covenants. The banks then foreclose and put the company into administration. Expect to see a dozen or so small miners, in particular, disappear in the next month or so. This prospect almost guarantees their demise.
Commenter
mitch of ACT
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:14PM
Exactly. No one ever lost their capital buying stocks low and selling them high. Lots of clowns have lost a lot of money making short bets though. Like all time and event based bets; the losing bets lose 100% of their capital… You know the type, the ones who have mania episodes telling everyone about their 100% gambling record lol
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:32PM
Gordon A – no one on this forum has claimed 100% strike rate. Another baseless claim for the new comer. I would only be guessing if I said you must have some hefty losses on your plate…
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 3:57PM
So what happens if Rudd takes leadership calls an early election and wins? We take our money and run?
Commenter
Andrew137
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:43AMIf that happens, forget the money lib and have a few beers!
Commenter
gotmilkmoney
Location
Geelong
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:52PM
11:29am @WBC Buy Recommendation:
The 12 months sell-target is right under a common gap in the chart that opened up between the 22nd and 23rd of May between $31.19 and $30.87. The rest of the Bell Potter statement is noise…..
Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:40AMwhee, down it goes! liquidated my entire asian portfolio last week, only marginally ahead of where I started the year. chalk that one up to experience. not game to hold over a weekend. it’s not really the fed but the murky china rumblings that worry. still want more aussie exposure but holding off buying more just for now. market jumping at shadows. be careful out there today people.
Commenter
green sheep
Location
back to sleep
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:25AMThe problem is people like the Liberator that are getting rich off the market plummeting!
Commenter
hlnbidoffer
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:53AM
Good call. You at least get to keep what you started with. I know a few – they took a solid hit before bailing…
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:05PM
to hinbiddoffer-you can do the same-go long when stocks go up and go short when they go down!
Stop whingeing.Commenter
tosin
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:25PM
Trade this market to a sub 4000 minimum. Debt seems to continue to grow as a % of GDP across all combined sectors. Until that flattens out and turns the other way – you can probably expect markets to be somewhat unresponsive (except on the bad news!).
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:09PM
I am not quite certain why this happening. I was led to believe by all and sundry that Abbott and Hockey’s pending election victory would stabilise the economy and give confidence to the markets. What has gone wrong? Doesnt the rest of the world appreciate the genius we are going to unleash on 14 September?
Commenter
Andrew
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:23AMThe unfortunate thing is Abbott and Hockey OR Julia and Wayne, not much choice. Regardless who get in we are stuffed by the politicians.
Commenter
FromTheEast
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:41AM
obviously we should all be getting in now b4 the smart overseas money realises and really clean up.
Us being on the ground floor so to speak, with the “inside knowledge.Commenter
J.
Location
Syd.
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:46AM
Abbott/Hockey. Gillard/Swan – none of them can make an iota of difference to what lies ahead. Let’s face it, Australia has been floating above the quagmire below, not because of Labor, but despite it. But the air is fast leaking out and the aftermath won’t be pretty. USA sub-prime crisis? At least they let the market correct. Aus pollies have kept kicking the can down the road so far that the ultimate result will make US meltdown look like a hiccup.
Commenter
Davo
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:56AM
If by “genius” you are referring to a drastic cut-back in government expenditure at the same time that the private sector is cutting back, thus precipitating a recession, then no wonder the market is falling.
Commenter
mitch of ACT
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:06PM
If any one believes that our internal circus has any impact upon the share-market they are on drugs! This is a run because helicopter Ben Bernanke is stopping the free money to prop up the bankrupt US economy. Its not in recovery the only reason that Wall St was climbing was because of FREE MONEY the US Fed was using TO BUY ITS OWN BONDS…….. Are we getting the real picture the only option left for them is like Cyprus to issue very expensive haircuts to its citizens. Don’t for one moment think we won’t get crew cuts too, government options are thinning out. Labor can’t tax their favorite people the welfare crowd, so tax hikes aren’t likely!
Commenter
Nick 0f OZ
Location
blacktown NSW
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:18PM
You think hot shot speculators around the globe give 2 hoots about who is PM Andrew? Most of them couldn’t find Australia in a map.
Commenter
Klouds123
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 2:42PM
I am sick of ASX…
Commenter
CeylonPsych
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:17AMX2
Commenter
hlnbidoffer
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:02PM
Those who sold low will be losers..
Such an overreaction…CeylonPsych June 21, 2013, 11:40AM
Commenter
Hubris
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:11PM
Shorting does require that you sell low. So a low selling win! Best engineered practice ever this short selling stuff… we create no value, hold no stock, but still make money…
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:33PM
x3^
Commenter
sean
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:19PM
Once upon a time investors were told to look at balance sheets other financial info invest in blue chip coys with strong cashflows low debt. This has now been replaced by spin the bottle the herd mentality. Brokers were telling clients to invest in high yielding stocks like banks. They neglected to tell them about loss of capital if the mkt implodes. No wonder retirees etc are keeping their money in low risk cash. This mkt is a traders mkt a shorters dream. Look at FMG – chase it to the bottom.
Commenter
Seb Gonzo
Location
New Farm
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:08AMI started buying Fortescue last week with my first bite at $3.18. It’s up the top of my list of buys this week so hopefully it keeps falling. Why would you be scared if you don’t need to sell for years if it doesn’t suit you? Also, your advice for retirees is a recipe for poverty. The stock market has always been, and always will be, the best place for their money. They can just selectively sell as needed because if your balance isn’t that high you can’t live off bank interest, bond yields or stock dividends etc. Sadly many people get bad advice and sell at the worst times.
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:17AM
Sympathy. Solution? There is a massive chimphunt in the Ozarks for Raven. Raven was able to outperform every usa broker in 1990. True he was fed bananas before each selection dart, but a champion none the less! Last reports he was holed with his Ozarkian cousins.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:23AM
Sorry Gordon, that advise is a little outdated. You can’t buy and hold anymore, especially close to retirement. It doesn’t work.
Pick selectively, put in sell orders if prices push to low. You can’t appreciate the capital that you have, if you buy and hold and end up with nothing. With a capital protection investment strategy, you always have something for later to invest.
Time to get on with a change and look at things with different views.
Commenter
Funky Advise
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:48AM
But there has been no change to long term investors. We are just seeing the usual market volatility as we emerge from a bear market but have not yet hit the bull market (which I thought would be 2013Q4 but now looking like mid 2014).
3 months ago I said the market would trade sideways b/w 4900 and 5100. I now think fair value is 4800-5000 given China weakness. Sure its below that but I think that’s mainly due to the AUD diving which like many I didn’t expect (US investors have lost 20% are are baling at least until the AUD finds support!).
The market has always been divided into investors and traders. Investors look at fundamentals which are long term views (I see QE3 tapering as a good thing long term but is clearly a bad thing short term) whereas traders trade volatility and market emotion.
Personally I think good on Lib and Allan if they are making a $ in this market. They have traded well and that’s the game they’re playing. But for me I only care that I remain positively geared and I make a profit at the end of my investment horizon which is about 6 years now.
I just need one more bull run………..
Commenter
Life Is Good
Location
The Real World
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:15PM
@Gordon Akman. There really is no end to your wisdom…….yet again you unwittingly contradict yourself. You say:
“Why would you be scared if you don’t need to sell for years if it doesn’t suit you?” And then: “Also, your advice for retirees is a recipe for poverty. The stock market has always been, and always will be, the best place for their money.”
HINT: Retirees do actually need to sell down to live off their super, so they can’t just choose to hold on for years. Holding a large portion of money in highly risky assets at that stage in their life is the WRONG thing to do. (Ask any boomer retiring post-GFC who had far too much allocated to Equities).
But as you say: “Sadly, many people get bad advice”……..such as from self styled experts in newspaper blogs?
Oh the Irony.Commenter
Sceptic
Location
Nowhere near the Gold Coast
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:22PM
@Sceptic tell me more about how holding all your money in cash when you are 60 works out for you in your 70s and 80s and beyond if you live that long. That’s a very funny story bro – tell it again lol
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:40PM
FMG @ $2.91 – ouch.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:04PM
Helicopter ben jumped the shark last week.He has triggered a unfolding bond market bust all because he believes the us economy is doing well even with U.S unemployment going nowhere at 7.6..
Commenter
michael
Location
richmond
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:01AMBond rates may move up a little more from here, but they’ll rally by years end.
It was not Bernanke that broke the bond market, it was sovereigns (i.e. politicians) running deficit after deficit after deficit.
Bernanke is deflating and delevering the banking/shadow banking system by reducing the amount of collateral available to the market.Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:20AM
Towards the end of Friday’s blog figures were posted showing there had been more job losses in agriculture than in any other industry.
This is a disgrace. So much for Australia becoming ‘the food bowl of Asia’.
This is almost entirely explained by Liberal and Labor governments of the last twenty years scrapping all tariffs on agriculture, while everyone else in the world has substantially kept theirs. Other countries may preach about free trade, but we’re the only suckers who fell for it and followed through. As a result our farmers are at a disadvantage before they start. We’re the only country in the world who through our trade policies make our own food MORE EXPENSIVE than imported food!
This is how Bob Katter summed up our idiotic, suicidal adherence to cutting our tariffs when everybody else keeps theirs: – “we’re the only virgins in the brothel”
Commenter
Fred
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 10:52AMAlways have said that we plebs need access to the the finacial dealings of all politicians. Especially after they retire.
Commenter
Bearishly Disgruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:14AM
Why prop up something if it doesn’t work, like QE or our car industry. Changes is always the best. It is better to be the only virgin in the brothel than to sell your soul. Bob Katter is a politician, stop listen to him blindly ( LOL). He only look after himself
Commenter
Funny
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:36AM
Don’t put your faith in any of them. Governments destroy jobs, period.
The sooner Australians wake up the joke that is the gross over-government (Nanny state / Welfare State) the better off we’ll all be. Start by abolishing the Central Planners in Canberra and decentralize power back to the states, and more-so to the local councils.Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:58AM
@funny – but it should work. We have the most efficient farmers in the world.
The reason it doesn’t is because through our trade policy we ACTIVELY DISADVANTAGE ourselves. I’m not talking about propping up anything, and definitely not welfare. I’m talking about a level playing field.
Why make our own produce more expensive than imports? We are effectively ‘taxing’ our own producers out of business!
Australia is on track to be a net importer of food within a couple of years! What a joke! And in the meantime we are hurrying up the process by selling our most productive farms to the Chinese. Hats off to the Chinese for at least engaging in some long-term thinking.
Commenter
Fred
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 12:24PM
The ASX is now back to where it was in Dec 2005. What a Rort. Yes I know GFC. ASX is now where it was in Sept 09. What a Rort.
Commenter
ASX 200
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:32AMI was placed in handcuffs and forced to invest in the ASX. I wanted to invest in other asset classes but they put my head in a cage and forced me to invest more in the ASX. What a rort. I have no control over my life. I am forced to invest in the ASX. What a rort.
Commenter
ASX 101
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:55AM
ASX 101 I have read your comment, studied it, understand it and now can come back to you with three words. STILL A RORT.
Commenter
ASX200
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:09PM
Read it, studied it, understood it. The next step is deciding what you are going to do about it. (Aside from playing the ‘IT’S A RORT’ sound effect again hehe)
Commenter
ASX 101
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 3:43PM
Newcrest, is $10 floor? Looks precariously perched at that level? Any show of hands at $7.50?
Commenter
jacee
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 10:24AMI’m definitely building a small position in gold miners around these prices i.e. around 2-3% in my US stock portfolio and about the same in my Australian stock portfolio. I already made my position in the US buy buying Barrick Gold around US$17. I was gonna go Newcrest in Australia but I’m also looking at Perseus, Alacer, Silver Lake etc. Gold is getting clowned currently though so no need to rush. The only reason I bought Barrick last week was because I decided to become fully invested in the US so bought Barrick with my remaining USDs. Now that the AUD has fallen a decent amount I doubt I will be buying anymore USDs for a while…
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:11AM
Could go there to 7.5 or even lower. If gold continues to fall.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:27AM
What is the production cost of gold? Surely at these prices some mines become uneconomical. As an outsider it looks like there is a lot of downward momentum. So at some point supply and demand comes strongly back into play. The present shakeout though seems to be very ugly.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:49AM
$6 bucks or less… I would not want to be buying any individual stock in this market.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:07PM
@Bearly Gruntled: the thing is the gold price ($1400) has not changed in AUD terms. For some reason though, gold miners seem to be getting absolutely smashed despite this.
Commenter
Erik
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:00PM
Dow up Aussie Down Dow Down Aussie Down Aussie SSS up Aussie Down Aussie $$$ Down Aussie Down. Chinese problems Aussie Down Aust Banks Record profits X 9 + more to come Banks Down Aussie Economy Strong? Aussie Down Labor in charge Aussie Down Gillard gone on Thursday Aussie ????? Election Now Yes please.
Commenter
Aussie Market
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:19AMYou seem to have a preoccupation with a high dollar being a proxy for a string economy? Can you let me know it’s level when Howard was in?
Commenter
Andrew
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:19AM
2 minutes after open and it falls anther 30 points from the already 20 points down at the open… ASX going well for the real stock investors!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:19AMIt sure is. The stock market has been great to people with even a basic financial understanding for generations. You do realize stock investors only lost money if they sell at lower prices don’t you? Stock investing isn’t like your short bets where you lose 100% of your capital invested with your miss-steps…
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:22AM
I am up 245.1% this FY on my short trading… and I do not invest in any other way. Except the big old home I purchased several years ago which has been ZERO growth and likely a 5%+ drop in real value!
Again GA – you spoil us with yet another baseless accusation. You really do hate short seller’s that much?
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:14PM
LOL what rubbish. When a company folds, as many have, you lose 100%. And while your money is tied up after you bought in at AORD 6,000 you have no capital to buy in cheap. That’s called opportunity loss. I think you’ve been hypnotised by the Spriukbot Telephunken U-47. ROFLMAO!
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:18PM
Liberator, don’t you listen to “Doctor” Wilson? Your investment in property can only go up in value. It’s guaranteed. There is no vested interest in his opinion, only genuine investment advice. Please adhere to it.
Commenter
Davo
Location
Sydney
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:51PM
Liberator…did you say 245.1%? That’s two hundred and forty five point one percent UP? That’s 12 times better than Greg Coffey’s typical annual of 20-25% as hedge fund boss. Cool baby!
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 1:09PM
Wow Liberator. I’ve seen you post some embarrassing stuff but this might even take the cake. Tell us more about how you make 245% a year trading lol Is that compounding as well? You might be on the way to becoming the world’s first trillionaire! lmao!
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 1:45PM
245.1% – on my shorts and that is for this year almost ALL of my ‘investing’. But – I only trade 15% of my net worth in the CFD account… which is not that much. A lucky 6 months this FY on shorting. I will get another good short in this week.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 4:45PM
AMP down 45 cents. Another good week for shorters, but I’ll be sitting on the fence watching as a long bear. Now the beard has spoken, the next worry is China. What’s really going on in there with the so-called “credit bubble” and can they be trusted?
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 10:13AMAMP looks to be good buying around $4.50 in my opinion. It will be back up to around $5.50 within 12 months I reckon.
Commenter
Gordon Akman
Location
Broadbeach
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:23AM
The last thing we need is for China to copy western banks. The chinese government does have a lot of coercive muscle that it can call upon. If things get out of control there ,then it will indicate a greatly weakened central government. Not a good prospect. Meanwhile what is a mere plebian dividend hunter like myself to do? None of us will pick the bottom of the market, but so what? Have any of you old pro’s got a formula for when a dividend stock becomes acceptable even in a market trending down.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:32AM
The current panic selling is just out of control, with no end in sight. For ordinary investors with long term positions, this is incredibly frustrating…
Commenter
hlnbidoffer
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 10:45AM
Be careful with any financials. You’ll understand why by years end.
Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:02AM
Advice from Gordon A is a sure way to lose your capital… general enough for you?
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:15PM
“AMP looks to be good buying around $4.50 in my opinion”
You thought is was good value at $5. Now you’ve lost 10% in a day.
Commenter
Allan
Location
Prahran
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:20PM
@Gordon Akman. So AMP June-14 $5.50 calls are roughly 20 Delta at the moment (stock $4.47, implied vol ~40%). You’ve got a 1 in 5 shot of being right with these parameters. Feel free to remind us all what a genius you are in a years time. (Not before).
Commenter
Sceptic
Location
Nowhere near the Gold Coast
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:27PM
At what point does the latest rout stop ?
Bulls and Bears alike would love to know.
Commenter
The Oracle
Location
Oberon
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:11AMI may be able to help.
On June 12, I wrote “a falling Aussie dollar and falling Aussie markets means a double whammy for foreign investors.
Wait until the AUD bottoms out before wading in; it may be a long wait.”I see that Marcus Padley on Inside Business yesterday, agreed with me, considering that 40% of our markets are overseas controlled.
He seems to think that AUD 80c may be the bottom.Commenter
Head Scratcher
Location
Canberra
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:23AM
Your name suggests you should know!!
What about july/august??Commenter
tosin
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 10:41AM
Only the day traders really care.
Commenter
tango8
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 10:43AM
Not sure – the sad part about markets is they no longer deliver what they were created for. Now it comes down to day trading and nuking by insto’s. The market should be divided in two – one for the REAL investors who want to hold stock in real terms (no electronic trading or bog boys allowed) and the other should be a day traded garbage market where the chart readers can go hell against each other (just like they are doing now).
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:47AM
@Liberator
That’s what we need a Tobin Tax for.
To put a disincentive on algorithms seeking out 0.1% arbitrage a million times a minute. Would go a long way to stabilising the market in my opinion.Yes, this rout will continue until the dollar finds another support level. But I think Marcus was a bit too pessimistic with his 80c prediction. I think it will find support somewhere in the 86-88c range. Until then, steer clear.
Commenter
Jimmy
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:12AM
Routs will never stop. Stocks will respond to the current environment in which they operate based on the news being either bad or good. For example today , AMP announced poorer results, so it fell 45 cents. Gold is tipped to fall to $1100 oz(Goldman Sach), so Newcrest will close 3 of 6 mines, write off 6 billion impairment, sack people, close an office. Iron Ore has fallen, and many think China is slowing, so RIO, BHP, and FMG have fallen drastically since Feb. On the up side, we see Ramsey Health (RHC), Resmed(RMD) and CSL either hold or rise over time because the health sector is doing well in Australia.
Commenter
Gordon Gekko
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:23AM
@ Tosin.
Yes, I am an Oracle, but even I admit to outright confusion over ongoing economic events. I must admit, I saw nothing but a massive bubble being blown by Ben and his mates, which now appears to be a correct observation, but the convergance of various nasties is even leaving me somewhat amazed.
Now, where’s that next rabbit ?
Commenter
The Oracle
Location
Oberon
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 2:07PM
Short at 4705. Weekend was also a cracker after the close Friday night in particular.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:02AMClosed – 20 points taken. Last trading week for FY – how is everyone doing?
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:48AM
Was delivering training on Friday so didn’t follow the blog. Have we seen this article on Friday ?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/06/1-in-8-homes-sold-for-a-loss-over-march-quarter/
Commenter
got brain
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 9:48AMFurther to this and from information I hear from people within the REIQ is that people are selling down at values MUCH less than their unrealised highs of 2010 etc. This is especially so for the Gold Coast, Logan and North Brisbane areas. Homes that were say a $600K valuation in 2010 are selling for $550K etc and so the relative house sale price remains only slightly subdued overall. The real problem lies in the sales of the entry level homes – they are not worth selling beceuase most people paid $30K-$50K too much for these cheap and nasty investments.
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 9:58AM
They had a better article over the weekend.
All hail the Spruikbot!
Commenter
Opinion Only
Location
Melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:02AM
Yes, seen it. The anecdotal comments are an even more dire picture of what’s going on. It hasn’t even started IMO. The tragedy is the government will use my money to bale out what they created. Aghh.
Commenter
JohnB
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 10:11AM
As a tax payer – you had all better prepare for the next 5-7 years. Fed debt will go to 50%+ of GDP (we all know what happens when a country passes this do we not!).
As for bail outs – well this is already happening. People should also read the legislation Labor has packaged over the last 3 years and tell me how many times you read the word ‘assistance’ or ‘care’ or ‘support’ – we are already bailing out the poor performers / underachievers. We need to fix some of the dogged old legislation before adding in the new!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:36AM
I am anticipating a subdued R/E market when cuddly Joe starts chewing the treasury cud. In fact I need to step things up in order to sell my place asap. How many QLD houses being sold belong to Newman’s handiwork. View this on a national scale and bubble buster Allan of Prahran dream will come true. Will there be more cheap houses than you can poke a stick at? Enter the generous First Home Owners Grants.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:49AM
@Bearly et al.
The housing market will be (somewhat) saved by people being allowed to access their super to pay off their grossly overpriced homes. However this wont stop the market going south, and south hard. I don’t know what the next lot of people in power will do to “rescue” the industry, apart from probably not realizing the reason why there’s no demand is because prices are too high and the private economy holds too much debt.
The only thing I am sure of is the next few years (starting in the next few months, no later than say March next year) are not going to be nice for a lot of folk.
Budget margins are going to be squeezed all over (public and private), and i’ll put my money on stagflation being the result as the government will try the old inflate the debt away trick once more….. Whether that will work or not I am unsure of.Commenter
Bye Bye Fiat Money
LocationDate and time
June 24, 2013, 11:09AM
We will soon be bailing out home owners because they have become too big to fail.
Commenter
hr
Location
melbourne
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 11:28AM
BG and BBFM – I have come to the realisation that I cannot sell my home (not without a considerable loss) and can only hope that rates drop a little more, lock in 5 years as cheap as possible and ‘pray’ that rental costs remain steady enough to cover my remaining mortgage repayments!
Commenter
Liberator
Location
SEQLD
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:19PM
@ Fiat .. They have yet to play the high inflation card. In the Whitlam era my house went from $6600 (yes) to $18000 in 3 years, in Brisbane. As a goldie I suspect that you are anticipating this anyway. For years I have been telling anyone who will listen that the yanks need to devalue their currency. Thereby they would reduce their debts in usd. However I had no idea how they would do it. QE does present an opportunity here, but it needs to continue until inflation really starts to bite. Oh, you say, Ben will end QE. Oh well lets bring in a new guy who won’t stop.
Commenter
Bearly Gruntled
Location
Onwards to the 80 cents dollar
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 12:38PM
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4:52pm: We’re calling it in here at blog central. Have a good evening.
Click here for a full wrap of the day’s session
4:37pm:It’s now almost 30 years since the float of the Australian dollar and rarely has it been stronger than in the past few years.
Only now are investors, surprised at the rapidity of the recent drop, waking up to this fact. The economy is starting to feel it too, with Ford closing down local operations, local tourism struggling as Australians head overseas and now Holden giving an ultimatum to staff: accept pay cuts or risk losing your job.
Many people explain away this strength with the phrase ‘‘commodities boom’’, but it’s more complex than that.
There are five key influences on the Australian dollar and each in its own way offers a clue as to how low the dollar might fall.
4:27pm: It wasn’t a pretty sight for blue chips today:
4:20pm: Here’s a look at the biggest winners and losers on the ASX200 today:
4:15pm: The market has closed down sharply, but up from the day’s low. The benchmark SP/ASX200 dropped 69.7 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 4669.1. While the broader All Ords lost 72.7 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 4651.1.
4:08pm:European stock index futures are pointing to a lower open, adding to last week’s sharp losses, as investors fretted about the prospect of reduced US monetary stimulus and worries over China’s banking sector.
Futures for Euro STOXX 50, for UK’s FTSE 100, for Germany’s DAX and for France’s CAC were down 0.2-0.9 per cent.
4:03pm:Australian 10-year government bond yields have hit a 15-month-high – but what’s driving this sudden spike?
Last week, the US Federal Reserve signalled a possible end to its stimulus program, which has involved a multi-million-dollar bond-buying program.
US 10-year Treasuries spiked – rising 14 per cent last week, with yields for 10-year Australian government debt soaring sharply as well.
“The US sets the global price of capital so there is a very high correlation between our bond yields and Treasury bond yields,” Deutsche Bank’s head of fixed income David Plank said.
“So when Treasury bond yields collapsed and fell to 1.5 per cent, they dragged our bond yields below 3 per cent. Now that they are moving higher, we’re following them higher as well.
“In the last few years, the Fed has been actively buying bonds, and now that it’s talking about lessening that from later this year, it’s caused a sell-off in bonds. So the causation is running from higher bond yields to lower equity prices, and not the other way around.”
Mr Plank said investors now had “nowhere to hide”, as lower bond yields have helped to underpin the strength of equities and other assets.
“As bond yields start to go up, the support that equities and credit have received from lower bond yields start to disappear,” he said.
The yield on the 10-year government bond has spiked.
3:51pm:Gold’s plunge below $US1,300 an ounce for the first time since September 2010 that erased $US55 billion from the value of investors’ holdings this year may extend to below $US1,200, according to technical analysts.
The $US1,300 level was seen as significant to some who study charts because it was the 50 per cent retracement of bullion’s rally from October 2008 to its record in 2011, one of the levels singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis.
The next targets lower are $US1,265 to $US1,250, and then $US1,227, according to Commerzbank AG. Prices may fall toward $US1,155 in the next few weeks or months, UBS AG says. That’s near the $US1,157 July 2010 low that MIG Bank calls a ‘‘key support.’’
The metal is heading for its biggest annual drop since 1981 after some investors lost faith in it as a store of value.
‘‘The trend is still negative,’’ said Luc Luyet, a senior analyst at MIG Bank in Lausanne. ‘‘If $1,157 is reached, it should be within one to two months.’’
Gold for immediate delivery reached $1,269.46 in London on June 21, the lowest since September 2010. It traded at $1,286.39 and is down 23 per cent this year. Prices are heading for a third successive quarterly drop, the worst run since 2001, when the metal’s 12-year rally began.
3:43pm:Information known to fallen timber company Gunns’ board would have ‘‘seriously disturbed’’ investors, a court hearing in the insider trading case of former chairman John Gay has heard.
The author of a report for the Australian Securities and Investment Commission says a management report from October 2009 painted a different picture of the company to the information made public.
Wayne Lonegan, a corporate valuer, has told the Launceston Magistrates Court a comparison of figures from the 2008-09 and 2009-10 financial years would have affected the share price.
‘‘The company had been historically profitable,’’ Mr Lonegan said.
‘‘What they’re now looking at … is a very significant deterioration.
‘‘That’s a very serious situation.’’
Mr Lonegan said stockbrokers were forecasting a modest downturn in profits, while Gunns management was expecting a decline of more than 100 per cent.
Gay has pleaded not guilty to two charges of insider trading in which it is alleged he sold 3.4 million shares, worth around $3 million, with knowledge about Gunns’ performance that was not generally available.
3:35pm:Wotif shares were slammed on renewed profit worries following a strategic review with the appointment earlier in the year of a new chief executive.
The review was released a few moments ago, flagging soft earnings amid stagnant transaction volumes. The year to June net profit is now seen at $50.5-51.5 million down from $58 million last year.
As a result, the shares were dumped, and are down 2.7 per cent at $4.61, off the low of $4.51 as quick bargain hunting emerged.
Immediately prior to the release of the outcome of the review it was trading at around $4.88, up 1.7 per cent.
3:17pm:China’s stocks fell to the lowest levels since December, led by financial and consumer shares, as Goldman Sachs Group cut its forecast for the nation’s economic growth amid concern over elevated money-market rates.
The CSI 300 Index entered bear market territory after declining 4 per cent to 2,221.5, taking its slump from its February 6 peak to 20.4 per cent.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index retreated 2.6 per cent. The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index of the most-traded Chinese stocks in the U.S. advanced 0.9 per cent on June 21.
The Shanghai Composite Index declined 3 per cent to 2,010.77 at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break, poised for the lowest close since December 4. It slumped 4.1 per cent last week, the most in four months, as concerns grew about a cash crunch after interbank lending rates surged to a record. Both Goldman Sachs and China International Capital reduced their 2013 economic growth forecasts for China to 7.4 per cent.
‘‘Financials are dragging the market down as investors fear the credit crunch would expose the risks among banks,’’ said Mao Sheng, an analyst for Huaxi Securities. ‘‘The banks’ problems are long-term structural problems, so there are still a lot of worries about them even as money rates fall today.’’
2:59pm: Casino operator Echo’s plans for a “world first” resort in Sydney is more a red herring than anything else, writes BusinessDay‘s Elizabeth Knight.
Investors should be more focused on whether Echo can make a return on the $1.1 billion it plans to spend on hotel rooms, parklands, bridges art and water slides. These features bring the tourists in but the gaming is the part that makes the returns.
The lion’s share of this new Echo investment is not earmarked for gaming facilities – which could ultimately reduce margins.
But paying for it won’t be the problem. There are more than six years of Echo’s exclusive licence left and little capital expenditure needed on its existing facilities.
If it doesn’t need to begin spending in earnest on the latest plans for a few years, it should be able to fund the mega expansion out of cash flow and debt. And while it won’t admit that equity raisings or asset sales are being contemplated it must be a handy comfort buffer.
2:46pm: Incoming Metcash boss Ian Morrice will conduct a review into the wholesaler’s grocery operations, as well as its online offering and relationship with suppliers.
This comes as the company’s flagship food and grocery division reported a drop in market share in the face of nationwide price deflation and a cut throat battle for shoppers between the major supermarket chains.
Although the market share decline was small and not uniform across all states it looks like Metcash has been outed as the main victim of the current price war between Woolworths and Coles, losing customers to the retailers and possibly newer retail entrants such as Aldi.
Mr Morrice, who will replace long serving Metcash CEO Andrew Reitzer at the end of the month, said the wholesaler needed to help its independent grocery stores drive better volume from its stores as new players such as Costco and Aldi snapped at its heels, while the established supermarkets, Woolworths and Coles, strengthened their offering with deep discounting.
Metcash shares are up 7.3 per cent to $3.69.
2:26pm: Unfortunately for motorists further increases in pump prices are likely, CommSec ecopnomist Savanth Sebastian says:
2:24pm: BusinessDay’s Michael Pascoe offers some perspective as the financial year winds down:
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Replay video
2:11pm: Don Williams, the chief investment officer of Platypus Asset Management, said he was treating the recent falls in the Australian stock market as a seasonal correction.
“It starts in March and it runs for about three to five months. [Our market is] down by about 10 per cent. There is potential for the market to go lower, but we think it will pull up somewhere between 10 and 15 per cent. We think the bulk of the move is behind us,” Mr Williams said.
“The earnings environment in the US is obviously better than in Australia, but I don’t think the Australian market will go back to 4000.
“I think we would need a shock or an event far worse than what we have seen in the last few weeks to trigger that. We are expecting it to pull up somewhere around 4500.”
2:02pm: While we’re looking at China, the tumble in its share markets seems to be the biggest worry of regional investors today.
The Shanghai Composite is down 3 per cent, while the CSI 300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen listing has plunged 4 per cent.
“The Chinese market changed the mood completely. The Nikkei stopped rising and gave up its earlier gains immediately after the Chinese market opened (in Tokyo’s mid-morning),” says Kyoya Okazawa, head of global equities and commodity derivatives at BNP Paribas in Tokyo.
“Global markets have just started pricing in the end of China’s high-growth period and investors are backing away from emerging markets,” he adds.
Japan’s Nikkei is currently down 0.35 per cent.
1:56pm: In another worry for China’s central bank, companies are getting more creative in the business of money lending as they struggle to keep profits ticking over in a cooling economy, raising concerns they are adding to the mountain of debt risks building in the world’s No.2 economy.
Big state companies in industries struggling with over-capacity but with easy access to credit are borrowing funds, not to invest in their business but to lend to smaller firms sometimes at several times the official interest rate, part of an informal lending market in China that authorities are taking aim at.
China’s central bank increased pressure on banks to rein in such informal lending and speculative trading last week in money markets, letting short-term interest rates spike to extraordinary levels.
In the $US3.7 trillion so-called shadow banking market, the fastest growing area is in so-called entrusted loans, which are arranged by banks on the companies’ behalf, and in bankers’ acceptance notes, tradeable securities that give a steady flow of cash.
“Can we use the money to expand production? Definitely not,” a deputy general manager at a state-owned steel firm in the eastern Shandong province told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“We will lose more if we produce more. We can only rely on other channels,” he added, noting the firm loses an average 100-200 yuan per tonne of steel sold.
1:44pm: As the remarkable success of Psy’s Gangnam Style was unfolding, Julia King and Chris Charlton were having a remarkable Korean experience of their own, Michael West writes in one of today’s most read stories:
They were hoping for a worldwide hit but they got a Korean horror story instead. In August, King and Charlton had just gone on the board of ATM company iCash to oversee its exciting expansion in South Korea.
ICash had sold its fleet of Australian ATMs for $16 million, a business that delivered profits, and bought into NeoICP, a Seoul company with a promising non-bank cash payments system.
For King, a professional director and former chief executive of Louis Vuitton, and fellow director and accountant Charlton, NeoICP has proved to be the corporate hospital pass of the year.
Not only did iCash buy a lemon but they paid scrip for that lemon and, using its scrip, that lemon is now bidding to wrest control of iCash via a reverse takeover. The battle for board ascendancy will be put to a shareholder vote on July 22.
Worse, while iCash is bleeding cash and the vulture funds hungrily circle, King has fielded another requisition for board changes. This time, embedded among the Korean names on the ASX release was one Garry Bonaccorso.
Read more
1:30pm: Australian bonds have plunged again amid a global selloff, sending the yield on benchmark 10-year government notes up 22 basis points to 3.98 per cent, heading for the biggest one-day jump in four years.
The rate last week surged 39 basis points, the steepest five-day gain since November 2001 – the last time weekly broad-market bond losses exceeded 1.3 per cent. The gap over similar- maturity US Treasuries was at 1.40 percentage points after touching 1.07 on June 19, the least since November 2008.
‘‘Our 10-year yields definitely won’t be able to fight the global move, however, we do expect them to outperform the US,’’ says Westpac rates strategist Timothy Jung. The gap between the two may narrow to 1 percentage point, he says.
‘‘This is all about tapering and what the Fed is going to do having a knock-on effect around the world,’’ says Derek Mumford, a director at Rochford Capital. ‘‘We can look for yield-curve steepening, with the short-term rates coming down as there’s still potential for the RBA to cut rates and longer-term rates pushing up.’’
1:17pm: While retail may have seen strong jobs growth over the last year, the sector still faces a number of difficult challenges that will weigh on growth in sales over the coming years.
“Over the decade leading up to the 2008 Global financial crisis consumer spending had benefited from significant tailwinds. Indeed the RBA describes this period of consumer spending as an “…unusual one…” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Alex Joiner.
“But more recently it notes that “…a return to the very strong growth of some years ago is unlikely.” This is because the sector now faces significant headwinds.”
Mr Joiner said recent trends have shown a marked slowdown in not only nominal growth, but also in the amount spent per capita.
“Nominal sales are being weighed down by the need of retailers to continue discounting to keep sales volumes turning over. This has been due to increasing competitive pressures, particularly from the rise in internet shopping,” Mr Joiner said.
1:05pm:The Australian dollar could be due for bounce higher after falling to an almost-three-year low last week.
The commitments of traders, as recorded in the latest US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, show that even more traders were holding short positions in the Australian dollar.
If some of these traders chose to take profits from their short positions, the dollar could experience a bounce higher in the short-term despite its longer-term downward trend, US-based FXCM currency strategist Ilya Spivak said.
“We hit another record in terms of net short as of last week,” Mr Spivak said.
“We are looking at a net short of 63,500 contracts at this point, which is very substantial.”
Mr Spivak said the rate of growth in short positions was decreasing.
“The sense seems to be that the level of intensity behind Aussie dollars selling has somewhat slowed in its conviction and I think it’s possible we could be getting to be a situation where a correction could happen.
“I think the extent to which people are net short sets the stage for them to want to take some profits if that begins to make sense.”
The dollar is currently trading 92.07 US cents.
12:52pm: In a country synonymous with larger-than-life mining tycoons and Outback heroes, the geeks are quietly inheriting the earth.
As coal magnate Nathan Tinkler, the poster boy for Australia’s fading 10-year minerals boom, publicly battles against bankruptcy, software entrepreneurs Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar are riding high.
The former college buddies behind fast-growing software firm Atlassian unceremoniously bumped Tinkler off the top of Australia’s “young rich list”, leading a charge in the country’s blooming technology industries.
The tech start-up and biotech sectors are at the forefront of a push to transform Australia from an exporter of iron ore to an exporter of ideas.
“It’s a pretty primitive economy,” said internet entrepreneur Matt Barrie. “We basically dig stuff up out of the ground, put it on a boat and ship it.”
As part of ambitious plans to change that, the government has announced millions of dollars in new venture capital funding and large-scale reviews of the technology sector. The $38 billion National Broadband Network (NBN) will bring high-speed internet to almost all the 23 million population.
12:37pm:Victoria’s two big gaming companies have won court action against the state government over levies of more than $42 million imposed on them.
The Victorian Supreme Court today ruled in favour of Tatts and Tabcorp in their joint legal action against the Victorian Treasurer Michael O’Brien, challenging his determination that they each pay health benefit levies of about $42 million for the 2012/13 financial year.
The companies say they operated gaming machines in Victoria for only 46 days of the financial year, losing the right to operate poker machines in venues other than Melbourne’s Crown Casino on August 15, 2012.
Tatts shares are down 1.1 per cent to $3.08, while Tabcorp is flat at $3.19.
12:20pm: The market still hasn’t found the bottom for this session, with both the ASX and the All Ords now down 1.6 per cent.
The ASX’s gains for 2013 have shrunk to a mere 14 points, taking it within 4 points of the lows it plumbed on June 13.
The All Ords is now trading in the red for 2013, falling below the June 13 lows to 4646.3.
12:14pm: The Prime Minister thinks reporting of the economy has been unreasonable, avoiding the ‘r’ word while getting stuck into those who have been using it.
She told the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia this morning that the economy is “growing, stable and strong”, an assurance that will be welcomed by a Reserve Bank so worried about the transitions under way that it has cut its cash rate seven times in the past 18 months.
It is now lower than it was during the global financial crisis, and the Reserve is holding open the possibility of cutting it again.
Julia Gillard herself acknowledged in her speech “some complex transitions under way”. Something will have to replace mining investment as an economic driver as the boom winds back. She pointed to housing investment and bigger export volumes.
Here’s some more
12:06pm:iSelect has commenced trading, but it looks like the much-hyped IPO isn’t having a great debut.
Shares are down 20 cents, or nearly 11 per cent, at $1.65 in the first minutes of trading.
12:04pm: The mood swings on the Nikkei may be weighing on the dollar, which has just dropped more than a quarter of a cent to 92.10 US cents.
‘‘The outlook is for improving economic data in the US,’’ says CBA currency strategist Richard Grace. ‘‘The US dollar’s going to remain on an upward trend, but in the short term it’s going to consolidate a little bit.’’
12:01pm:Japanese shares are swinging between gains and losses, with exporters reversing gains even as the yen weakened.
The Topix is now down 0.2 per cent, after earlier climbing as much as 1.2 per cent, while the benchmark Nikkei 225 is nod down 0.3 per cent.
11:58am:Bluescope Steel could be a significant beneficiary of the lower Australian dollar, Deutsche Bank told clients this morning.
Bluescope guidance is that each 1 cent move in the Australian dollar against the US dollar is worth around $4 million to pretax profits. The investment bank reckons it could be twice this, however.
“We reviewed our forecasts on a divisional basis, and believe BSL’s sensitivity to a depreciating AUDUSD is more than double company guidance… we think it is closer to $9-10million. “We take into account additional factors which the BSL sensitivity does not (eg the impact to domestic prices), and we believe the recent AUD depreciation is very positive for BSL.”
It has a ‘buy’ recommendation on the shares with a $6.17 price target. Its shares are this morning down 0.5 per cent at $4.45.
11:55am: Here’s how the region’s markets are doing so far:
Note that the Japanese market is bucking the trend, profiting from a weakened yen.
‘‘Volatility is going to be the order of the week for the markets,’’ Vasu Menon, head of content and research at OCBC Bank in Singapore, told Bloomberg TV. ‘‘China has had a credit binge for way too long. The government is trying to rebalance the economy, trying to downsize the shadow banking system. All that means credit is going to remain fairly tight.’’
11:42am: The US Federal Reserve’s plan to cut back on how much cheap money it pumps into the world’s biggest economy is still weighing on markets, as investors worry about the impact on growth and adjust their portfolios.
“The valuation adjustment for tapering of Fed stimulus is well underway,” says Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. “While it may have further to go, a substantial valuation adjustment has already occurred in the Australian market.”
Stocks with exposure to the United States have edged higher – helping to cap broader losses – supported by a weaker Australian dollar as earnings from abroad are boosted when repatriated home.
Blood products maker CSL has climbed 1.5 per cent while pallets maker Brambles is up 0.3 per cent.
11:29am: Bell Potter’s always colourful Charlie Aitken has flagged Westpac as being a prime pick this morning, saying that the collapse in the Australian dollar will pull eastern Australia out of its prolonged recession.
With NSW the most populous state, and given Westpac’s strong position in that market, that has fed his optimistic view of its outlook.
“Westpac is the mega cap way of playing NSW. Seven million people coming out of a ‘feels like’ recession shouldn’t be under-estimated,” he told clients this morning.
With a grossed up fiscal 2014 yield of 9.3 per cent “Westpac is paying you to take the risk in its equity”, was the way he put it.
The broker’s banking analyst has also upgraded the bank to a “buy” with a $30.75 12-month price target, partly on the argument that only NSW and Queensland have declining ratio of insolvencies to new company registrations.
Westpac shares are down 0.1 per cent at $27.68, outperforming the broader market.
11:15am: For the fans of big billion numbers, today’s loss has shaved some $21 billion off the market’s capitalisation.
11:13am: We just hear that Cricket Australia has sacked head coach Mickey Arthur, and that on the eve of the Ashes.
The former South Africa coach, whose contract was due to run until the end of the World Cup in March 2015, was informed of the decision over the weekend, our webiste is reporting.
CA is expected to confirm his axing later today. It is not known who will replace him, although highly rated Queensland coach Darren Lehmann is in England and has just completed a coaching stint with Australia A.
Read more
11:09am: Aussie stocks are down to a 1.5 per cent loss for the day, with the ASX200 trading at 4668.4, just 12 points above where it opened the year.
At current levels, the ASX200 has booked losses of more than 4 per cent since Thursday.
The All Ords is also down 1.5 per cent, trading 9 points below where it ended last year.
11:00am: Rivkin global analyst Tim Radford said the local falls also had been notched up despite the falling Australian dollar and a rise in commodity prices.
‘‘A level of strong buying support is emerging at around 4,700. So, we could again see shares sell off at the open, only to be supported by buyers mid-session and push shares higher into the close,’’ Mr Radford said.
10:59am:Graincorp shares could be worth more than the $13.20 a share takeover offer on the table, given the scarcity value of the grain handler’s assets, shareholders were told Monday.
US bidder ADM is offering $13.20 cash a share for Graincorp shares, which Grant Samuel estimates to be worth as much as $13.97.
ADM is to pay $12.20 in cash with the balance of the offer to be paid in the form of dividends paid by Graincorp.
In mid-morning trading on the ASX, Graincorp shares were up 3c at $12.50, against the backdrop of a broadly weaker sharemarket.
10:52am: Aussie stocks have just dipped back towards the day’s low. The ASX200 just slipped to a loss of 1.15 per cent, close to the opening low of 1.21 per cent.
10:45am: Leighton has secured a $1.3 billion deal with Fortescue Metals for work at the Kings deposit at the Solomon Hub, making it the construction company’s biggest ever single contract award.
Its shares are 0.5 per cent lower to $15.04
The deal takes the total value of work under the Solomon Hub agreement to $2.8 billion, the largest single contract award in the history of Leighton Contractors, the company said in a statement.
Leighton secured the full service, five-year plus two-year extension option contract to deliver whole-of-mine management at the Pilbara iron ore project in September 2012.
The initial award was to mine the Firetail deposit, valued at $1.5 billion. Fortescue’s decision to award the Kings deposit activates the full scope of the contract.
10:41am: A quick look at the big miners, which are helping to drag the ASX lower:
10:38am: The ten worst performed stocks on the ASX200 this morning contains more than a few gold miners:
10:34am:Gold stocks are lower this morning after as hedge funds cut bets on a gold rally by the most since February after the Federal Reserve laid out plans for reducing stimulus.
US investors reduced their net-long position by 29 per cent to 38,951 futures and options by June 18, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Holdings of short contracts jumped 14 percent, the most in eight weeks.
‘‘There’s certainly a rush to the exits in gold,’’ said Jim Russell, a senior equity strategist in Cincinnati at US Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $US110 billion of assets.
‘‘The nudge up in the Fed’s expectations economically suggests they may unwind their program a little quicker than investors thought.’’
10:30am:AMP shares have been punished on the downgraded profit outlook. They lost as much as 10.24 per cent to $4.47 but have since clawed back a few per cent to $4.57, a mark last seen in late November last year.
Read more here.
10:24am:Aussie stocks have bounced off an opening low of 1.21 per cent, climbing back to 0.9 per cent. All but one section is trading in the red:
10:20am: Ric Spooner at CMC Markets writes that ‘‘the valuation adjustment for tapering of Fed stimulus is well underway”. In note this morning he says:
While it may have further to go a substantial valuation adjustment has already occurred in the Australian market. The strength of buying in bank stocks off Friday’s lows and similar levels the week before suggests investors chasing dividend yield are starting to see real value around those prices.
From a technical point of view it would take a rally past the May high at 5249 to provide conclusive evidence that the downward correction has ended. Any rally we do see at this stage is more likely to be a corrective bounce in an ongoing move lower.
10:16am: In counterpoint to the Aussie open, Japanese shares rose, with the Topix index headed for its sixth increase in seven sessions, as exporters climbed after the yen continued to fall against the dollar.
The Topix added 1.2 per cent to 1,112.75, with all 33 industry groups rising. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average increased 1.4 per cent to 13,417.72, with all but 13 stocks advancing.
10:14am:The Australian share market has opened more than one per cent lower.
The benchmark SP/ASX200 index was down 56.1 points, or 1.18 per cent, at 4,682.7, while the broader All Ordinaries index was down 55.1 points, or 1.17 per cent, at 4,668.7.
On the ASX 24, the June share price index futures contract was down 42 points at 4,646, with 10,689 contracts traded.
10:13am:Supermarket group Metcash has lifted underlying full year profit by 6.9 per cent to $281 million but has lost market share in its core grocery business as it beds down major restructuring and new acquisitions.
The company promised a review of its food and grocery operations as it recorded revenue of $13.1 billion for the year to April 30 and a reported net profit after tax (NPAT) of $206 million.
The result is up $129 million on the previous year, when the company recorded restructure costs and impairments.
The retailer behind the IGA and Franklins supermarket chains suffered a 2.3 per cent fall in sales in its core food and grocery business to $9.1 billion as it closed stores but achieved 35 per cent earnings growth, to $47 million, in its liquor business.
10:09am:Early take – Aussie stocks are down heavily in early trade. The ASX200 has lost 0.7 per cent as markets open
10:01am:Mining giant Rio Tinto has decided to retain its diamonds businesses following a review which considered a range of options, including divestment.
Rio Tinto Diamonds and Minerals chief executive Alan Davies said the medium to long-term market fundamentals for diamonds remained robust, fuelled by growing demand for luxury goods in Asia and continuing strong demand in North America.
‘‘We have valuable, high-quality diamonds businesses that are well-positioned to capitalise on the positive market outlook,’’ Rio said in a statement on Monday.
‘‘After considering a number of alternative strategic ownership options it is clear the best path to generate maximum value for our shareholders is to retain these businesses.’’
For Rio, diamonds have not lost their sparkle.
9:58am:Picking up where we left off? Credit Suisse equity strategist Damien Boey said he expected the weakness in the Australian share market to continue into this week after last week’s mixed close.
“The issue here is that the Fed seems pretty serious about wanting to end quantitative easing and the market has clearly been in a stage of digesting whether that’s a good sign or a bad sign,” Mr Boey said.
“So the market initially thought that the if the economy is strong enough for the Fed to tighten then that’s actually a sign of good growth. But now the market has clearly turned the other way, and you can see that we’ve had wholesale liquidation of not only equities, but bonds have sold and gold has sold and everything has sold.
“So people are in a lot of cash at the moment. … I think we have a bit more [weakness] to go because we haven’t even reached a conventional sell-off yet.”
9:57am: Here is some analysis on the AMP profit warning. BBY banking analyst Brett Le Mesurier said the earnings updates was confirmation that “times are really tough for them, and tougher than they expected”.
9:53am: Also in corporate news this morning, GrainCorp is recommending its shareholders accept Archer Daniels Midland Australia’s takeover offer, in the absence of a superior one.
Releasing its official response on Monday, GrainCorp said that under the agreement, its shareholders would receive $13.30 per share.
That would comprise a payment from ADM Australia of $12.20 a share and permitted dividends totalling $1.00 per share.
The dividends are expected to be fully franked, providing an additional value of up to 43 cents for those eligible for full franking benefits, the grains processor and supplier said.
Recommending the offer, GrainCorp directors said the cash payments of $13.30 per share ‘‘represent a significant premium to GrainCorp’s trading prices, prior to the announcement of ADM’s initial takeover proposal’’.
9:46am: In corporate news this morning, insurer AMP expects its first half underlying profit will be lower than estimated and come in between $415 million and $435 million.
AMP said it was providing the guidance update for the first half of 2013 following poor claims and lapse experience in its Australian wealth protection business in the second quarter, particularly in May.
Experience losses were $32 million for the five months to May 31, comprising $26 million in insurance claims.
The latest figures ‘‘reflect the ongoing volatile nature of experience across AMP’s insurance portfolio, which has in-force premiums of more than $1.7 billion,’’ AMP said in the statement.
‘‘The industry is experiencing increased pressure on insurance claims and policy lapses.’’
AMP said it anticipated some strengthening of best estimate assumptions for income protection claims at the half year, although the financial effects should be largely offset by future premium rate increases.
9:41am:The Australian dollar is slightly lower this morning as the US dollar continues to strengthen following last week’s news that the US central bank may wind up its economic stimulus program.
In early trade, the local unit was buying 92.12 US cents, down from 92.34 cents on Friday.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says the Aussie dollar’s fall to 92 US cents represents a 10 per cent drop from last year’s average cross rates, but this can translate as a three per cent profit increase for some local companies.
“It won’t surprise me if we see some earnings upgrades for companies with overseas exposure,” Mr Oliver said.
9:39am: Good morning folks. Welcome to the Markets Live blog for Monday.
Contributors: Thomas Hunter, Jens Meyer, Max Mason
This blog is not intended as investment advice
BusinessDay with agencies
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12:11pm The Prime Minister thinks reporting of the economy has been unreasonable.
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Markets Live: Miners drag on index
Commenter
The Oracle
Location
Oberon
Date and time
June 24, 2013, 10:11AM