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February 4, 2013 – 10:50AM
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The Australian share market is higher after US stocks rose to five-year highs on Friday.
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- Companies still remaining to report with the largest expected earnings growth for FY 2012 include Aurora Oil Gas +81.0%, Caltex Australia +74.9%, and QBE Insurance +44.4%.
- Companies still remaining to report with the most upward revisions for FY 2012 in the past month include, OZ Minerals 8 upward revisions, Alumina 8 upward revisions, and Iluka Resources 7 upward revisions.
- Companies with the greatest potential upside based on Capital IQ consensus target price include, Maverick Drilling Exploration +187.7%, Gryphon Minerals +164.3%, and Saracen Mineral Holdings +97.49% (*data as of 1/30/13).
- Discovery Metals: -4.8%
- Sirtex Medical: -1.62%
- Navitas: -1.19%
- IOOF: -1.18%
- Acrux: -1.11%
- Invocare: -0.94%
- Crown: -0.85%
- Mirabela Nickel: +4.44%
- Saracen Mining Holdings: +3.85%
- Gindalbie Metals: +3.51%
- AWE Ltd: +3.46%
- Independence Group: +3.17%
- Boart Longyear: +2.5%
- TD Securities inflation for January – 10.30am
- Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) building approvals for December – 11.30am
- ANZ job ads for January – 11.30am
- Dun and Bradstreet business expectations survey
- Tuesday: Cochlear, Transurban report results, RBA rates meeting, AiG performance of services index for January, ABS house price index
- Wednesday: Retail sales for December quarter, Primary Health Care results
- Thursday: AiG performance of construction index for January, NAB business confidence for December quarter, official jobs data for January. Australand, Tabcorp, Telstra and News Corp results
- Friday: RBA statement on monetary policy, Newcrest results
10:51am: A good question from reader ‘Retd1′:
10.15 – did everyone sell so they could watch the Superbowl??
10:43am:Early gains have moderated. After rising 0.61 per cent in opening trade, the ASX200 has retreated to a gain of 0.2 per cent. The All Ords has followed a similar trajectory.
10:38am: The first bit of data is out for today. Inflation remains at a slow enough pace for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to again cut the cash rate, but expectations are that it won’t this month.
The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in January for a 2.5 per cent annual pace, which was in the middle of the RBA’s two to three per cent target range. Underlying inflation, the RBA’s preferred measure, which excludes volatile price changes, was at 2.2 per cent for the 12 months to January.
10:36am:Qantas plans to broaden the number of destinations it flies to in Asia as part of its new alliance with Emirates.
The Australian carrier’s outlined its new four-phase strategy for the Asian market. The new destinations being considered include Beijing, Seoul, Mumbai, Delhi and Tokyo-Handeda.
Qantas also plans to provide more frequent flights to Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as change the time of those flights and increase capacity on those routes. Qantas said the improvements to its Asian services would begin on March 31 and be rolled out in four phases.
Qantas shares are down 0.3 per cent in early trade to $US1.535.
10:34am:SP Capital IQ has released some interesting numbers ahead of the official launch of earnings season. In the February issue of their earnings report, they point out that 166 companies have reported earnings in FY12, with 37 per cent beating expectations. They also note:
10:30am: In technical terms we are in a cyclical bull market now that the market has breached the 20 per cent level, Matthew Kidman writes:
The bears, though, will say it is just another sharp rally in a secular bear market that has been in train since the market topped on November 1, 2007.
So should you buy the sharemarket now that it has motored 23 per cent higher in six months or have you missed the whole thing and is it better to wait for a pull-back?
Read his view here
The SP/ASX 200 is now up more than 23 per cent cince the surge ignited back in June 2012. Photo: Louie Douvis
10:27am: Here are the worst-performed companies on the ASX200 in early trade:
10:25am: Here are the best-performed companies on the ASX200 in early trade:
10:16am: The Australian share market has opened more than half a per cent higher.
The benchmark SP/ASX200 index was up 27.3 points, or 0.55 per cent, at 4948.4, while the broader All Ordinaries index was up 26.5 points, or 0.54 per cent, at 4968.4.
On the ASX 24, the March share price index futures contract was up 16 points at 4895, with 6752 contracts traded.
10:14am: The ACCC is taking legal action against Visa in the Federal Court in NSW for misuse of market power.
BusinesDay’s Lucy Battersby is about to read the legal documents and will file more details shortly.
10:07am:Early take – shares off to a solid start. Up about 0.3 per cent in opening trade.
9:56am:The Australian share market is expected to start the week in the black today after positive economic news from the US and China over the weekend, CommSec chief economist Craig James said.
Mr James said the Chinese services gauge, which was at 56.2, ‘‘had reached expansion territory’’. In the US, the ISM manufacturing gauge, consumer sentiment, construction, spending, employment were all higher and should be give a boost to the Australian market, he said, adding that oil, gold, base metals and iron ore prices were also all up.
The bright start to the week was also reflected in the rise of the Australian dollar this morning.
‘‘The Australian dollar finished US trade around $1.0405 and [at about 8am today] it was $1.0425, so it’s put on almost a quarter of a cent in our timezone this morning – that’s a pretty strong rise,’’ Mr James said.
But he added that investors were still expected to exercise some caution ahead of the start of the earnings season today and the Reserve Bank’s board meeting tomorrow.
The market would be watchful of retail sales data to be released on Wednesday, labour force data to be published on Thursday and the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement, which will be issued on Friday, he said.
Results from Telstra, News Corp, TabCorp and Transurban Group were expected to dominate the first week of earnings season, Mr James added.
9:54am: On the RBA decision tomorrow, more commentators are starting to call the end of the rate cutting cycle. Here are a couple of well-known economists on that point:
RBA rate cutting cycle almost certainly over. In next few months, there may well be speculation unfolding over the timing of the first hike
— Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) February 3, 2013
#RBA also likely to sound less dovish/more confident which is likely to encourage expectations that rates have bottomed
— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) February 3, 2013
9:50am: The centrepiece of the week will be tomorrow’s RBA decsion on interest rates. A Bloomberg survey expects the official cash rate to be kept on hold at 3 per cent, with only four of the 28 respondents forecasting a rate cut to 2.75 per cent. That’s followed on Thursday with unemployment data for January.
9:48am: Looking at the calendar, it’s going to be a solid week on the newsfront. Here’s a quick look at what we’ve got in store today and through to Friday:
Today:
This week:
9:45am:Australian bond futures have sold off following weakness in US Treasuries. Westpac senior market strategist Damien McColough said local bond futures prices opened lower on Monday after a selloff in US Treasuries on Friday.
Mr McColough said three-year futures prices had now fallen below their recent support level of 97.100, and were likely to continue to move lower.
‘‘I think you will find the technical levels have now broken and the target from here would be 97.000,’’ he said. Mr McColough said domestic events would drive the local market this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly interest rate decision on Tuesday, the release of retail trade figures for December on Wednesday and the release of employment figures for January on Thursday.
At 8.30 AEDT, the March 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.495 (implying a yield of 3.505 per cent), down from 96.500 (3.500 per cent) on Friday afternoon.
The March three-year bond futures contract was at 97.100 (2.900 per cent), down from 97.130 (2.870 per cent).
9:33am: A bit of housekeeping to get the week rolling. From tomorrow, we’ll be launching the blog each day at around 8.30am to catch all of the earnings reports as they happen. Like we always have, we’ll publish individual stories as each company updates the market, but we will also have a rapid response to each of the announcements published the blog with links to the full coverage.
So tune in to Markets Live from 8.30am each morning to get the latest company results.
9:29am: Good morning folks. Welcome to the Markets Live blog for another.
Contributors: Thomas Hunter, Jens Meyer, Max Mason
This blog is not intended as investment advice
BusinessDay with agencies
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Snidery Mark
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February 04, 2013, 10:46AM
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