Markets Live: Worst in the region

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November 20, 2013 – 5:00PM

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Australian stocks fall for a third session, with WorleyParsons leading the slump, as investors take profit.

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5:16pm: That’s all from us here at Markets Live, have a great evening.




Click here for a full wrap of the day’s session




5:01pm: An update from our earlier entry at 3.37pm: Citi has underwritten the placement for CapitaLand and is in the process of offering the shares to institutional investors.









4:51pm:Given the uncertainties in the near-term outlook for the Australian dollar, traders are turning to the longer-term outlook for the currency for direction, RBS senior currency strategist Greg Gibbs says.




So what are the factors driving the outlook?




“That’s probably that the US economy is healingand that there will eventually be normalising policy. The Chinese economy is restructuring towards more consumption-led growth and less fixed-investment-led growth, so that means the terms of trade with Australia continues to decline over time. 




“So the currency’s direction is probably still lower over the next year.”









4:26pm: The local market may have underperformed its regional peers today, but CommSec’s Savanth Sebastian points out that, including dividends, the All Ords Accumulation Index is just 1.1 per cent away from the record peaks scaled on October 28. And he sees more gains in the near future:



• We expect the sharemarket to continue to lift in coming months on the assumption that the global economy continues to heal and on the expectation that the Australian economy exhibits stronger momentum.


• CommSec remains comfortable with current forecasts for the All Ordinaries ASX 200 indexes. Conservatively we maintain our end year forecast of 5,400 points and our forecast of 5,600 points by June 2014.


• Total returns on shares are tipped to lift around 20 per cent in 2013/14 after 20.7 per cent growth in 2012/13.







The All Ords Accumulation Index









4:18pm: The stock market has closed lower, falling for a third straight day. The benchmark SP/ASX200 index dropped 45.2 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 5307.7, while the broader All Ords fell 43.2 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 5304.6.




Losses were led by the energy sector, which plunged 2.7 per cent. Materials lost 0.9 per cent, financials dropped 0.7 per cent, while utilities was the only sector posting a gain (+0.2 per cent).





3:46pm:Australia has emerged as the largest market globally for cloud-based accounting software developer Xero, powering a near doubling in group revenues for the September half.




Australia revenues in the half more than doubled to $NZ12.3 million from $NZ5.5 million a year earlier, helping to boost group revenue to $NZ30.3 million, an 84 per cent increase.




Globally, paying customers totalled 211,300 at the end of September, up from 111,800 a year earlier, with the focus increasingly shifting to the UK and US markets where the group has been investing heavily to begin building its presence.




Annualised monthly committed revenue stood at $NZ70.6 million at the end of the half, up from $NZ39.7 million a year earlier, it said.




Shares are down 1.5 per cent at $31.73, retreating further from all-time highs of $36.50 hit earlier this month.









3:37pm:Austaland has gone into a trading halt amid suggestions its 59-per cent shareholder, CapitaLand is looking to sell about $400 million worth of shares.




CapitaLand said in January it was reviewing the ownership of the shares, but in March said it had decided to maintain the ‘‘status quo’’.




However, as Australand’s residential business has improved over the past nine months, conditions are now favourable for a share sale.




Australand released a statement on Tuesday night issuing new earnings guidance, which has created a window for CapitaLand to exit.




Shares were down 3 per cent at $3.76 before they were halted.









3:27pm:At least 300 people are expected to lose their jobs as global energy giant BP cuts costs at its Australian business.




A spokesman for BP told BusinessDay: ‘‘I can confirm there will be significant job losses.”




He said that although Australia was still considered a growth market, over the past few years it had become uncompetitive.




The 600-odd employees at BP’s headquarters in Melbourne were today told of the job cuts, the spokesman said. Exact numbers are not yet confirmed although the cuts are estimated to be about 150.




Staff members at BP subsidiary Elite Customer Solutions were also told today that 30 per cent of the 530 jobs would be made redundant and sent overseas.







Moving out of primetime: The Simpsons.




3:20pm:Returning Channel 10 to its roots as a youth-focused TV station would be certain death, its chief executive says.




Ten Network chief executive Hamish McLennan said the “train has left the station” on Ten’s new focus on 25 to 54 year olds, and the new year looked good for Ten.




“There’s been this … desire to push this demographic older for some time,” Mr McLennan told an industry function in Melbourne.




“We’ve been quite overt in terms of saying, ‘It is now 25 to 54 year olds’. We’ve spend hundreds of millions of dollars against that demographic, and going out buying things like the cricket are proof points that we’re committed to it.




“So we won’t have a business if we were to revert back to where we were; we would absolutely go out of business and that would not be good for this audience or this industry at all.




Ten shares are up 1.9 per cent at 27.5 cents.




Read more









3:14pm:The size of a contract held by Leighton subsidiary Thiess for work at the Lake Vermont coal mine in central Queensland has been expanded by $550 million.




Thiess will provide engineering and operations expertise to increase coal production at Jellinbah Group’s mine from six million tonnes to eight million tonnes per year, the company said.




Leighton shares are down 2.7 per cent at $16.23.









3:02pm:Ainsworth Game Technology shares have jumped more than 5 per cent today after the poker machine maker said that – based on the strong performance so far – it expects to report a 40 per cent lift in net profit for the six months ending December 31, subject to foreign currency movements.




The company reported a $22 million net profit for the equivalent period last year.  




Shares which hit a record high of $4.79 last month, jumped 25 cents from $4.25 to $4.50.









2:49pm:‘‘You deliver bad news, you expect to get punished,’’ was the succinct way Worley Parsons chief executive Andrew Wood explained the thumping his company’s share price has suffered on its profit warning out earlier in the day.




The selling hasn’t slowed with the shares down 24 per cent at $16.43 in mid-afternoon trading.












Reg Kermode Photo: Sahlan Hayes




2:35pm:Where’s Reg? this was the big question at Cabcharge’s shareholder meeting today with the company founder and executive chairman, Reg Kermode, unavailable to witness corporate history with the taxi payments provider receiving a third consecutive ‘strike’ against its remuneration report.




Cabcharge director, Neill Ford, stepped into the chairman’s role at the meeting and offered apologies on behalf of Mr Kermode saying the absent chairman was ‘‘disappointed’’ he was unable to attend.




It has been another tough year for Cabcharge with its shares plunging earlier this year when the Victorian government announced it will halve the 10 per cent fee Cabcharge receives for processing payments, which potentially sets a national precedent.




After the meeting Moelis Company analyst Adam Michell maintained his sell recommendation on the company with a $3 price target saying the fact that the company is trading on a multiple of seven times this years earnings and has a dividend yield of 7.2 per cent is a ‘‘misleading indicator of value.’’




Shares which were worth more than $14 in 2007 are trading 3 cents higher at $3.80 this afternoon.




Cabcharge received a second strike last year but shareholders voted down the resolution to spill the board. The company is the first to receive three consecutive strikes, but will need to cop another one next year before the board faces another spill resolution.




2:29pm: Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson says a debt peak significantly above $370 billion in 2015-16 is likely.




At the Senate Estimates today, he said the government’s aim for an increase in the debt limit from $300 billion to $500 billion debt ceiling is ‘‘prudent’’.









2:27pm: Here’s Peter Martin’s take on the latest OECD economic outlook for Australia, which expresses concern over further budget cuts due to a soft local economy:







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2:20pm: The region’s share markets are mixed today, with some markets profiting from another dovish speech by Fed chief Ben Bernanke while others have been hit by profit taking:



• Japan (Nikkei): -0.1%


• Hong Kong: +0.3%


• Shanghai: +0.15%


• Taiwan: -0.3%


• Korea: -0.5%


• ASX200: -0.9%


• Singapore: +0.05%


• New Zealand: -0.6%



‘‘There is evidence of profit taking,’’ Ric Spooner, Sydney-based chief market analyst at stockbroker CMC Markets, said in an e-mail. ‘‘Upcoming data beginning with tonight’s release of U.S. retail sales has more capacity to shift thinking on the timing and pace of the Fed’s taper program.’’









2:06pm: Earlier today, WAM Capital chairman Geoff Wilson was wary of the sharemarket’s near-term outlook, telling his shareholders much of the upswing is already in share prices at present levels.




Contango Microcap chairman Mark Kerr was a little more sanguine at the annual general meeting of his shareholders earlier on.




“We have already started to see funds move out of bonds into equities and we expect this trend will continue,” Kerr said. “This should support equity valuations across the globe, including in Australia, over the coming year.




“In Australia we expect a gradual recovery to around trend growth in 2014 supported by the RBA’s rate cuts and the lower Australian dollar.




“In addition, the clear election result should boost consumer and business confidence which will support spending and investment in the economy over the coming year.”









1:58pm: The company developing a spray-on skin treatment developed by Australian of the Year Fiona Wood is all but certain to receive a first strike when shareholders meet on Friday.




Avita Medical’s two biggest shareholders have announced they will vote against the loss-making biotech’s remuneration report, citing concerns over the pay of chief executive Bill Dolphin and the performance of the company.




A strike will be recorded if more than 25 per cent of shares are voted against the remuneration report.




Combined, Australian Ethical Investments and Bioscience managers control almost 28 per cent of Avita stock.




If the company records a second strike next year, it must ask shareholders if they wish to spill the board.









1:39pm: Pumpkin Patch, the New Zealand-based children’s clothing retailer, expects annual earnings to be in line with 2013 although it says it faces more downside risk for the remainder of the year.




The retailer’s profit before reorganisation costs will be about $NZ8.5 million ($9.6 million) in the year ending July 31, 2014, largely unchanged from a year earlier, chairwoman Jane Freeman told shareholders at Wednesday’s annual meeting in Auckland.




The company will recognise a $NZ1.5m charge in the first half as it cuts staff, but will have lower costs in the future. The shares fell 2.2 per cent to 90 cents on Wednesday.




Sales in the first four months of the year were ‘‘materially impacted’’ by the Australian federal election, and New Zealand’s trading conditions have remained challenging, she said.









1:29pm:Shares in mine sector engineer Monadelphous may have further to fall if broker JP Morgan is on the money.




It has told clients to be “underweight” the shares, reckoning $14.95 is what they’re worth.




That’s well north of their $16.97 level in trading a little while ago, down 5.6 per cent on the back of the Worley Parsons downgrade.




Monadelphous “has a strong track record of earnings growth and a reputation as a top-tier ‘build to spec’ contractor,” it told clients in a note.




“But, Monadelphous will find it difficult to defy the headwinds from Australian resources and energy customers delaying/cancelling project work and seeking ways to cut costs.”




Rather, it reckons Downer EDI with its exposure to the production end of the resources sector or others such as Lend Lease with a limited exposure as better plays.









1:20pm:Consumers are increasing their spending ahead of the Christmas season, a Commonwealth Bank business sales indicator released today says.




The measure, which tracks credit and debt card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank point-of-sale terminals, says spending increased by a seasonally adjusted 4.1 per cent in October, reversing September’s 1.4 per cent decline.




Spending rose 0.4 per cent last month in trend terms, the report found.




“With consumer confidence improving and property values rising strongly, the outlook for household spending is looking increasingly healthy,” says Commonwealth Bank’s executive general manager for local business banking Adam Bennett.




“That’s good news for retailers, especially with the critical holiday trading period just around the corner.”




Economists have said that the RBA would be monitoring consumer spending, especially during the festive season, to look for a pick-up as non-mining business investment continues to remain subdued.









1:09pm: From our friends over on the Money section:




Were your finances wrecked by the GFC? Did your portfolio of ‘blue chip’ stocks fall faster than a lead balloon?  And now, five years on, what can you do? Money presents five different post-GFC scenarios and talks to the experts who’ve come up with some great solutions.




It’s here.









1:02pm:The Reserve Bank’s assistant governor Guy Debelle is at a financial conference in Sydney at the moment.




He’s just talked about the increasing cost of financial intermediation and the provision of financial services generally.




He says these increased costs have “very much been the intent” of policymakers, and not “to re-use one of the most overused expressions around at the moment,” an unintended consequence.




He’s also talked about the recent, ongoing reactions from global financial and equity markets to any talk of the US reducing its reliance on unconventional monetary policy.




Debelle says the Reserve Bank would “certainly” welcome moves by the US to return to traditional monetary policy tools – because that would mean US economic activity was improving.




“This is a good thing. It’s unambiguously a good thing,” Mr Debelle said.




“The alternative is worse … It’s a hell of a lot worse that the consequences associated with an exit [from unconventional monetary policy].”




He says the dollar will likely remain higher as long as the US continues with its $US85 billion dollar bond buying program, but he welcomes the day when that program runs down.









12:53pm: Fed chairman Ben Bernanke responds to a question on whether quantitative easing benefits Wall Street but not Main Street.




He says he does not believe Wall Street was the main beneficiary of the central bank’s quantitative easing program, adding that the unprecedented bond-buying program was tied to improving the economic position of Main Street, ie. the average American.




He said the Fed has played an important role in maintaining the momentum of jobs growth since the financial crisis, with eight million positions created.




Bernanke says that low interest rates are supporting US households, with 60 per cent of Americans owning their own homes. At the same time, he adds the US auto industry is humming at pre-recession levels.




Bernanke takes a small swipe at Washington DC, saying there would be even better support for the US economy if there was also accommodative fiscal policy.









12:45pm:Investors in Commonwealth Property Office Fund are in limbo today as they await the next instalment of the bidding war that has erupted between GPT and the Dexus/Canada Pension Plan Investment Board consortium.




With GPT entering the fray yesterday with its $1.24 equivalent cash/scrip offer, (Dexus is offering $1.21), the market is on tender hooks to see whether Dexus will engage in the auction and return with a higher offer.




Analysts think that Dexus will match, followed by a further increase from GPT. One said this will be GPT’s third attempt at a takeover after failing on Australand and the Lend Lease industrial assets and he doesn’t think GPT’s Michael Cameron would walk away easily.




John Kim at CLSA said he believed Dexus will likely match GPT’s offer ($1.23 per CPA share based on GPT’s closing price) including a higher cash component of 73 cents (vs. GPT’s 72 cents per share).




‘‘We estimate this would be 2.0-2.3 per cent earnings per security accretive in the 2014-15 financial years,’’ he said.




‘‘Given equal bids, we believe the independent directors of CP, the Commonwealth Managed Investments Ltd (CMIL) would likely recommend the Dexus offer, which places value for management rights, while fulfilling its fiduciary responsibility.’’









12:34pm:Rupert Murdoch’s divorce from his wife of 14 years, Wendi Deng Murdoch, is nearly final and the sides are close to amicably resolving the matter.




That’s according to a person familiar with the situation who spoke on Tuesday on condition of anonymity because the matter is personal.




The person said the pair will appear in a New York court on Wednesday to formalise the agreement.




The divorce won’t alter the succession plan for the pair of media companies that 82-year-old Rupert Murdoch controls through a family trust – 21st Century Fox and the recently spun-off publishing company, News Corp.




Wendi Deng Murdoch, 44, is not a shareholder, according to the person. Their two school-age children, Grace and Chloe, are beneficiaries of 8.7 million non-voting shares being held in a separate trust.









12:24pm: Warrnambool Cheese and Butter Factory says directors continue to believe that terms of final Bega offer are materially inadequate and do not reflect fair value.




WCB directors maintain their unanimous recommendation that shareholders reject the Bega offer.




WCB shares are up 16.8 per cent at $9.25, while Bega is down 0.2 per cent at $4.66.










12:14pm:Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is taking questions now following his speech. He says in response to a question that the Fed’s quantitative easing program and low rates policy should be treated as separate by financial markets.




Bernanke repeats his comments that the Fed was continuing to maintain accommodative monetary policy as low as the US economy needed it and that financial markets had conflated the two Fed tools of its bond-buying program and low interest rates.




After the end of the bond-buying program, “we expect that rates will remain [low] long past the employment thresholds and beyond until such time there is good evidence that the economy can sustain higher interest rates“.









12:01pm:Qantas chief Alan Joyce’s lobbying in Canberra today comes as Macquarie Equities downgraded Qantas to ”neutral” from ”outperform” due to softness in the domestic market taking its toll on the airline.




The broker has downgraded its estimates for Qantas’s underlying pre-tax profits to a $440 million loss this financial year from its previous forecast of a $149 million profit.




The Macquarie analysts believe weakness is more widespread across Qantas’ businesses than previously thought, with its domestic operations still recovering from excess seat capacity, and yields from its regional operations weaker because of tougher competition from Virgin.




Shares in Qantas are up 2 per cent to $1.1475 while Virgin shares have fallen 0.7 per cent to 38.75 cents.









11:55am:Cabcharge appears to have received its third consecutive strike on its rem report with proxies going 33m for and 29m against (120m shares on issue). A poll has been opened.




Exec chairman Reg Kermode wasn’t on hand to witness corporate history – apologies were made for his absence.




Shares in Cabcharge are up 1.9 per cent to $3.84.









11:40am: Bitcoin is on the map in more ways than one – and it looks like it is becoming a Chinese craze.




You can watch it trading across the globe, and possibly draw some intriguing conclusions about where this fast-moving digital money is going. For the last week, a site called fiatleak has offered a map that its creator says draws information from all the major online bitcoin exchanges, like Mt. Gox and BTC-e, and shows what country’s residents are buying bitcoins, in real time.




There are also sites that list all major bitcoin exchanges, but they don’t show it as a global phenomenon as vividly.




One striking thing about the map:  even at the height of the American and European trading days, when it’s 3 am in China, Chinese transactions far outstrip activity in euros. The United States dollar transactions are still more popular than Chinese at that time, with about twice as many transactions. China was barely involved in bitcoin a year ago, however. The Chinese presence can also strengthen when it is daytime in China and night in the United States.




“You can watch China and the US play Ping-Pong on this,” said Andrew Hodel, who built the site. “You see the psychology, as the bitcoin goes over a threshold number in dollars or yuan.”









11:32am: Myer chairman Paul McClintock said this morning that following a subdued and volatile trading environment in the lead up to the federal election in September there had been some signs of an improvement in consumer sentiment.




However, the chairman warned shareholders at the department store’s annual meeting today that the retailer remained cautious about the year ahead given the continued economic challenges, as well as the disruptive impact of major refurbishments and higher costs that will hit the company in fiscal 2014.




The chairman said in his address that consumer confidence had risen since the federal election, evidenced by improved first quarter sales for Myer, but there was a lot of work to be done by the new government.




“We welcome the election result and commentary from the new government about its desire to engage in a constructive dialogue with business. We look forward to being a part of that.”




Shares in Myer are up 0.4 per cent to $2.85.









11:25am:The savage sell-off in Worley Parsons shares spilled over to others in the sector, with Monadelphous down 54c at $17.43 as Bradken shed 14c to $5.98, UGL 19.5c to $6.885c.




It also hit retail investor darling ALS, which shed 14.5c to $9.23.5c, pushing it back to its lowest levels since August. ALS is to report September half earnings Monday.




Only on Tuesday, Monadelphous warned of a year of consolidation after two years of strong revenue growth.




While there are a number of contracts under bidding, margin pressures are high, amid greater competition for work, shareholders were told at Tuesday’s annual general meeting.









11:20am:Virgin Australia Holdings is considering legal action against Qantas Airways chief executive Alan Joyce over an email sent to more than 30,000 Qantas employees on Monday.




It is understood Virgin has engaged high-profile lawyer Leon Zwier to provide advice on a potential defamation action against Mr Joyce.




Mr Joyce wrote to Qantas employees on Monday urging them to pressure the government to intervene in what Qantas claims is a de-facto foreign takeover of Virgin through a $350 million equity raising announced last week.




It is believed the Virgin board, due to hold its annual meeting in Brisbane on Wednesday, thinks the Qantas note implies it is not acting in the interests of all shareholders. The Virgin capital raising has sparked an extraordinary war of words between the two airlines.




Read more









11:10am: After the strong run in the sharemarket since the start of the quarter, is the best pretty much in the price at present? That would appear to be the view of one of the market’s savvier performers.




“In Australia and overseas, equity markets have performed strongly over the last 18 months,” WAM chairman Geoff Wilson told shareholders at today’s annual meeting.




“The SP/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index is now up more than 20 per cent for the calendar year to date and up approximately 40 per cent since the Index’s low in June 2012.




“Last month, the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rose 3.9 per cent. Equity markets globally have been buoyed by unprecedented levels of government stimulus … coupled with low interest rates.




Australia’s primary capital market remains strong with numerous Initial Public Offerings announced or completed.




“After a very strong equity market performance since June 2012, our medium term outlook is more subdued. Low interest rates and ‘easy money’ have driven-up asset prices. Price earnings ratios have expanded in anticipation of stronger earnings growth… there are few signs of an improvement in earnings while new equity is being issued at a rapid rate.




“A key insight emerging from our recent meetings with companies is that there has not been a sustained increase in economic activity as anticipated following the federal election and trading conditions remain challenging.




“We are cautious about the performance of the equity market over the remainder of 2013/14.”









10:59am: So what should we make of the comments by the head of the People’s Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan that the world’s second-largest economy will gradually exit from regular intervention in the foreign exchange market?




Commonwealth Bank currency strategist Peter Dragicevich says despite the rhetoric from Governor Zhou, there is still no concrete timetable on when the reforms will be rolled out.




“Everyone’s assumption is that reforms will take place, but to put it pretty simply, today we are none the wiser than we were yesterday on terms of any timing. This is a long-term process that’s likely to continue,” Dragicevich says.




“We had expected the Chinese to widen their daily trading band at some point. We thought it could happen possibly this year. But in terms of moving down that track we’re still a long way away from all the reforms that are taking place.




“That is the path they are heading down so we did see the Aussie lift overnight on those reports, but if you dig a little deeper it really was just a rehash of comments that were made almost a week week ago.”









10:50am:The Australian dollar has bounced higher on the back of the release of prepared comments from US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke in which he says that the central bank is set to keep interest rates lower for longer after the end of its quantitative easing program.




The dollar jumped to 94.43 US cents after the remarks were released ahead of his speech at 11am. They were already higher overnight on the back of comments from China that the country was set to liberalise its exchange rate.




Rochford Capital senior consultant Richard Breen said the speech reiterates that the Fed will be taking a cautious approach.




“With Bernanke’s comments just out, people are realising that the Fed isn’t just going to get on the taper and pull back stimulus in the near-term. It’s probably going to begin in March or April next year.




“With all the dovish talk from Bernanke, Yellen, Dudley, Evans, [traders] realise that the Fed isn’t going to go immediately.”







The Bernanke effect.









10:44am: Only a matter of weeks after issuing guidance of a modest profit outlook for the year ahead, resources sector specialist Worley Parsons has flagged a steep profit decline, admitting there has been no uplift in activity so far this financial year.




The news send its share price tumbling, falling 20.3 per cent to $17.20.




It now expects the year to June net profit to run at $260-300 million, which is well short of the recent forecast of $322 million.




It blamed a “delay in [the] upturn in our markets”.




The December half net profit is expected to run at $90-100 million, indicating a heavy reliance on a second half uptick to meet the latest forecast.









10:41am:Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the Fed will maintain ultra-easy U.S. monetary policy for as long as needed and will only begin to taper bond buying once it is assured that labor market improvements would continue.




“The target for the federal funds rate is likely to remain near zero for a considerable time after the asset purchases end, perhaps well after” the jobless rate falls below the Fed’s 6.5 per cent threshold, Bernanke said today in remarks prepared for a speech to economists in Washington.




He said a “preponderance of data” would be needed to begin removing accommodation.









10:31am: Treasurer Joe Hockey responds to OECD’s economic outlook, which has advised Australia to resist making more budget cuts:




The OECD’s latest Economic Outlook forecasts Australia will record a solid economic performance over the next two years.




The OECD forecasts Australian economic growth of 2.5 per cent in 2013 and 2.6 per cent in 2014, accelerating to 3.1 per cent, around its potential rate, in 2015. This will be above the OECD average of 2.7 per cent.




The Economic Outlook notes that the domestic economy is undergoing structural change, with a slowing in mining investment likely to be offset by rising mining exports and a gradual strengthening of non-mining sectors. The risks to the Australian economy are assessed as balanced.




One concern is that the OECD expects the unemployment rate to rise above 6 per cent in 2014 and 2015. This is in line with Treasury forecasts.




While global growth is expected to gradually strengthen over the coming years, the OECD notes that long-standing downside risks remain and new concerns have emerged.




Existing concerns include the re‑escalation of the euro area crisis and the Japanese fiscal situation. Added to this is uncertainty in the United States surrounding fiscal policy, and the eventual normalisation of monetary policy which, while a welcome signal of recovery, could expose vulnerabilities in emerging market economies.




As a result, the OECD has downgraded its forecasts for world growth to 2.7 per cent in 2013 and 3.6 per cent in 2014, with growth to lift to 3.9 per cent in 2015.









10:26am: Outdoor clothing and equipment company Kathmandu sales are up, in line with expectations.




Groups sales for the 16 weeks to November 17 were up 0.9 per cent to $70.9 million, on an actual exchange rate, and up 3.8 per cent on a same-store sales basis, the company said on Wednesday in a market update for its annual general meeting in Auckland.




In other news, former Fairfax CEO David Kirk has been appointed to the company’s board, and will take over as chairman next year.




In early trade, shares in Kathmandu are up 0.3 per cent to $3.41.









10:17am: The ASX has followed the lead of Wall Street by opening lower, with the benchmark SP/ASX200 index down 21.9 points, or 0.41 per cent, at 5,331.0, while the broader All Ordinaries index has fallen 20.5 points, or 0.38 per cent, at 5,327.3.









10:07am: JPMorgan Chase Co admitted it regularly overstated the quality of mortgages it sold to investors and agreed to pay a record $US13 billion ($13.9 billion) to resolve related charges, federal officials said.




The civil settlement would mark the end of weeks of tense negotiations between JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank, and government agencies that are under pressure to hold banks accountable for wrongdoing that led to the housing crisis.




For JPMorgan, the deal resolves some of the welter of investigations it is dealing with now. But even after the settlement, the bank faces at least nine other government probes, covering everything from its hiring practices in China to whether it manipulated the Libor benchmark interest rate.




Read more







Under the microscope: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. Photo: Reuters









10:02am: Online currency exchange company OzForex has reported a 14 per cent rise in net profit to $9.5 million for the first half of the year.




Up from $8.4 million in the corresponding period last financial year, the increase beat prospectus forecasts by 7 per cent.




OzForex listed in the ASX on October 11 after an initial public offering which raised $439.4 million by the issues of 12 million new shares and the sale and transfer of 207.7 million existing shares.




OzForex’s existing owners retained 20.3 million shares, or 8.5 per cent.









9:54am: IG Market analyst Evan Lucas says it looks like world markets are starting to retreat after recent record highs – will the ASX follow suit?:




The global pullback looks to be starting; European markets are moving back from five year highs, the SP continues to shift away from its intraday all-time high as the DOW continues to shift sideways.




These are classic signs of market fatigue; the ASX has seen volumes remaining below average (only $4.1 billion changed hands yesterday) as the banks and the big miners are starting to find buyers becoming a rarity.




Commodities were hit pretty hard overnight with natural gas falling 1.3% and industrial metals also losing their appeal despite household data over the past week showing signs of sustained improvement. This will damp the ASX further having seen the cyclical plays holding the line of the past to trading sessions.




With the release of the RBA minutes yesterday three things are clear: the board is mindful of the rise in dwelling and retail lending and stated that interest rates are taking effect, however inflation and jobs growth remains subdued, as does the parts of the economy it needs to see improvement from.










9:50am: Finnish telecom company Nokia says its shareholders have approved the 5.44 billion euros ($7.9 billion) sale of its mobile phone division to US multinational Microsoft.




According to Nokia – which will now become a telecom equipment and services company – the deal was almost unanimously approved (99.7 per cent) by shareholders who voted ahead of an extraordinary meeting in Helsinki.




The transfer of the handset business should take place in early 2014.




Once the world leader in mobile phones, Nokia lost its top place to South Korea’s Samsung in 2012.




Although still number two in the overall mobile phone market, ahead of US giant Apple, the company now ranks eighth on the rapidly growing smartphone (internet enabled) market, according to telecom consultancy Gartner.









9:44am: Short-seller Jim Chanos says that shares of international oil majors like Exxon Mobil Corp increasingly look like a value trap for investors as cash flows decline and return on capital slides.




His comments at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit in New York overnight came a week after Warren Buffett disclosed a large position in Exxon, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company.




Chanos said his Kynikos Associates fund was bearish on both national oil companies and the integrated majors.




“The costs of finding this stuff (oil) has gone through the roof,” Chanos said. “The economics are clearly deteriorating.”




“It isn’t the same cash flow generating business it used to be.”









9:36am: Overnight, the Australian dollar hit its highest level in almost two weeks after China said it would ease restrictions on investment and the value of its currency. The currency peaked at 94.48 US cents, its highest level since November 8.




People’s Bank of China (PBOC) governor Zhou Xiaochuan said it would widen the daily range that China allows the renminbi (also called the yuan) to trade in and also would phase out investment caps for foreign and domestic investors.




BK Asset Management managing director Boris Schlossberg said the US dollar was sold off after the announcement and the euro and Australian dollar rallied.




‘‘The one unit that clearly benefited from Mr Zhou’s comments was the Aussie dollar, which earlier in the night dropped to a low of 93.50 US cents on the back of the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes,’’ Mr Schlossberg said.




‘‘Traders responded positively to Mr Zhou’s pronouncements as Australia will likely be one of the prime beneficiaries of China’s capital market liberalisation policies.




‘‘China also clearly wants the yuan to become a competitive medium of exchange with the US dollar and this announcement is just the latest in a series of policy moves to encourage this development in global capital markets.’’









9:30am: What you need2know:



• SPI futures down 26 points to 5,346.
  


• AUD fetching 94.32 US cents, 94.46 yen, 69.69 euro cents, 58.52 pence


• On Wall St, SP500 -0.2%, Dow Jones -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.4% 


• In Europe, Eurostoxx -1%, FTSE100 -0.4%, CAC -1.1%, DAX -0.4%
  


• Spot gold slips 0.1% to $US1274.10 an ounce


• Brent oil drops 1.3% to $US107.04 per barrel


• Iron ore falls 0.5% to $US136.30 per tonne



Read more




9:30am: Good morning. Welcome to the Markets Live blog for Wednesday.




Contributors: Jens Meyer, Max Mason, Luke Higgs




This blog is not intended as investment advice




BusinessDay with agencies














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Featured comment:



• 
  

  
  

  Hang Seng up again today I see. Oz was down yesterday when much of asia was up. Could be foreign investors rotating out of Oz to China (from DM to EM).

  
  

  Market is now at bottom of 6 month upward channel so should find support here.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Life Is Good
  
  Location
  
  The Real World
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:54PM

  
  




• 
  

  
  

  Bulls wounded and making up trades. Love it!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 4:57PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  On the money FMG short @ $5.88 hehe GIFT!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 4:16PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Ease up guys, we’ve been in a bull market since 1 oclock.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Andrew137
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 4:13PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Iin buy @ $6.12 stop at $6.00. Target $6.50it doesn’t break $6.50, short back down.. Trading a great range at the moment.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gee up
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:54PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  BP cutting jobs by 300 – that should help the house prices!!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  I told you so
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:37PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Returning Channel 10 to its roots as a youth-focused TV station would be certain death…

  
  

  D’OH!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Homer
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:33PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The markets are down, bucking a worldwide trend, cause the RBA keeps talking us down.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Peter
  
  Location
  
  Sunbury
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:32PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  RCT exhibiting uncharacteristic behaviour for a company under takeover offer, Currently trading at 70c below the bid price. I’m glad I sold most of my holding at the peak. Will now buy back in in modest numbers as the price falls further. Likely distribution of 12c unfranked to go ex in December.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:27PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  As long as Leighton keeps announcing constant contract awards, I’ll keep accumulating. Anything around $15.50 and I will put my house on it.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Andrew137
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:27PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I’m also positive re LEI. Purchased small parcel at $16.35 today. But there is still risk re the fallout re the corruption allegations. I’m not worried re class action or gaol time for some former execs. I may buy some more at lower prices (hopefully wont happen!) but ‘not the house’.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Yin or yang
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:48PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    PS there’s also the bad debt risk.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Yin or yang
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:49PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Even when a company announces a big new contract worth in the hundreds of millions, in today’s economy that may not be a good thing. The competition is fierce and margins are being cut to the bone so any cost overruns could spray the deal with red ink. So be wary of getting enticed in by “good” news.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:18PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  overnight in the US sellers overwhelmed buyers 4 to 1. distribution is increasing the pros are liquidating and accomodating the retail market who poured an enormous amount into equities in October. Are we
  seeing a market blowoff and climax?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  learner
  
  Location
  
  mittagong
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:05PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  It’s 3pm..you can’t get the shares any cheaper now…buy it before it’s missed.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  QUESTIONS
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 3:01PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Today’s bargain buy could be tomorrow’s red ink.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:47PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    wrong.sorry matey.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 4:26PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Japan extends run of deficits to 16 months, October deficit at $1T yen. Japan debt now 24 times government revenue. Expect yields to rise in the JGB market if growth is not robust in 2014.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Kyle Bass
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 2:40PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Budget emergency?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    tim at tenbagsfull
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:32PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  anyone miss my CRZ short a few weeks back?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  herman munster
  
  Location
  
  @sobbing
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 2:17PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I did but i also missed the ARI short at $1.05 and FMG at $3 and JBH $12 so i’ll be alright

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Hugo
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:09PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    How about LNC, LYC, QAN, FMGx3, CRZ, SWM, FLT, PMV, WBC, CB, ANZ?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 4:54PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The fund managers on the left may say that a clear election result will boost business and consumer confidence and it may, but then the continuing downgrade by the OECD and others, including our own RBA,of the world and Australian growth rate, aided and abetted by a gov’t with contractionary budgetary policies, will do nothing to help the sharemarket and in the end business and consumer confidence. Of course if Joe Hockey is prepared to spend the extra $200bn that he is looking for on the gov’ts credit card on worthwhile infrastructure then we may get back on the growth path.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 2:15PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Austerity joe does not have it, will not make it, out of depth, bit of a worry he’s got the keys to the safe.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    “they’re back”
    
    Location
    
    gilligans island
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Macquarie Equities downgraded Qantas.

  
  

  Hmmm. I got out of QAN last year when they only recorded a profit by discounting the cost of the delay in their 787 order. Without that ‘accounting trick’ they’d have reported a loss last year.

  
  

  So, I could have told you this LAST year and not half way through this financial year like those economic genius’s at Macquarie Equities.

  
  

  It is a business even its highly rorted Canberra routes, can’t save from the Red Ink Well.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Joe the POM
  
  Location
  
  Geelong
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 2:13PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    You had shares in QAN, or any airline. What were you thinking.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:11PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Hang Seng up again today I see. Oz was down yesterday when much of asia was up. Could be foreign investors rotating out of Oz to China (from DM to EM).

  
  

  Market is now at bottom of 6 month upward channel so should find support here.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Life Is Good
  
  Location
  
  The Real World
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:54PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Should and would, two different things…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life is Good, Market is Bad
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:19PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It will be interesting to see if that support materialises. Yesterday I commented from a technical analysis viewpoint the a “head and shoulders” formed with the banks over the last few days, and CBA would struggle to reach 77.50-77.60 in the next few days. Today, it’s down further. If that support does occur, I would expect the banks to recover the lost ground, otherwise it could be in the early stages of a correction. GG,

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    
    Location
    
    Greg Coffey World
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:54PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    More like investors rotating out of Tony’s Australia into anywhere else.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:13PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Just had a look at CBA’s chart GG and I agree. Maybe can go 76.4 but would need to find support there.

    
    

    The channel is quite strong but I wouldn’t be surprised if it broke though on the downside, esp. if it occured as banks broke through the HS. A few % correction would then be on the cards.

    
    

    But volume is low so not sure there is the impetus for a leg down, een if tapering is announced soon.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Real World
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:49PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  shorters? weak as p…
  as per usual.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  shorter stalker
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:47PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Uh oh… someone’s angry.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 4:55PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  … is ‘end of the world Assad’ when you need him?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Green Sheep
  
  Location
  
  where oh where
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:42PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Anyone seen which blank/gee up/nab man?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:36PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Still here snookems, just have better things to do than worry about a bitter virtual trader. You’ve only got $16 to go to get back your CBA short and 10% on your mqg short. I’ll take my 20% mqg long, a bucket load of SYD gifts and my dividend. Thanks for playing. ROFLMAO

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gee up
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:29PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Still angry I see. Well at least you apologised.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 4:58PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  BOQ getting slapped. I like it!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:30PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    dunno..those that went long (not short @11)…have done ok…dont ya think?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:45PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  BAM! Look how Worley goes.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bob
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:29PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  No banks…. PARTY!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:28PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    clever and original.well done…im happy 4 you.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:38PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Banks…No Party!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Illusionist
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:19PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Worst performing stock this week I am seeing is ILU…down 10% from 10.10 to 9.07 now.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  QUESTIONS
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:23PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Down, down, prices are down! Down, down, portfolio is down!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  panda
  
  Location
  
  perth
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:17PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Somehow I don’t think you would be Robinson Crusoe

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Daniel Defoe
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:37PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Interesting article on Ethiopia’s bid to become an ‘energy superpower’.

  
  

  http://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/08/business/earth-wind-water-ethiopia/

  
  

  Ethiopia is a rising economy that deserves far more attention than it gets. It has had higher growth rates than China for years.

  
  

  In Australia, we are so obsessed with Asia that we ignore other rising markets.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Fred
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 1:05PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Well. What a conundrum. Lowering rates have not lowered the dollar. It’s just caused more drama. Wages will fall dramatically if this dollar doesn’t come down… Who would have guessed the dollar would stay high, with all the stuff Australia used to own having been sold off? Propping up scam after scam after scam has caught up with us. Hopefully everything will fall in a heap and we can start to rebuild. The sooner the better.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  JohnBB
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:59PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Relax man! Get a hold of yourself!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    GStamos
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:08PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @GStamos….I am relaxed because I know what’s going on and have well prepared for it for a long time. I must admit I’m a bit wound up in sympathy for those that haven’t.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:20PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @JohnBB – I am ready too, fully cashed.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Not Happy
    
    Location
    
    Bris
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:24PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The “Big Americans” and their hedge fund buddies Still see Aussie Banks and by default the entire Aussie market overpriced by up to 15%.

  
  

  Long way down to go yet, any fools calling the bottom must love catching falling knives hey?.

  
  

  Funniest thing I heard all day was some fool telling me how great the figures from China are, doesn’t this fool know the figures are just made up at Communist Party headquarters and have absolutely nothing to do with reality?, 7% growth no problem, ohh you said 8%, no problem, there now sorted!.. 8% it is.. I mean really how Gullible are some people?, Chinese “Official” economic data, now there is a joke and a half. Imagine being stupid enough to gamble your money on that misleading rubbish?…some people hey?.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Toys will get Played
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:57PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Chinese fairy tale is misleading and a trap. Please see
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/jim-chanos-best-quotes-2013-11#but-is-there-a-bubble-in-the-us-stock-market-23

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    xyz
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:16PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hey as long as they pay real cash @ $130+ tonne for our iron ore. I am cool.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Ronn
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:47PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  are there any listed companies where shareholders should approve the remuneration report? Surely as investors, the only way to (try to) control how much money gets sucked out of the company by the directors is to vote no to the rem report at every opp?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Go Cats 23
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:54PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    All of them. Howard brought it in a few million dollars ago…..If the holders vote against it twice, the board is sacked. No BS…It will never work of course because the share holders of say the banks,want the best in there at any price. Greed huh? Howard knew that but we being the dummies we are, we accepted it.

    
    

    .I read this today….”follow the money and see where the money for high wages are coming from”….. Higher house prices = higher wages = higher house prices multiply by five = Higher salaries for the people running the country; the banks. Until it all falls apart and they walk away with their multi millions while “ordinary” people are left with decades of lost earnings and wealth..

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:14PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Q. Does the ASX go up ?
  A. No

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Malcolm
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:48PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The only way to make sure that stock prices won’t go down any further is to take the whole market in space…that way the hidden force of reason logic won’t have any impact on stock particles prices but rather go into orbit around the eternal QE…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Newton
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:17PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Any mention of BOQ today?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:16PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    on a serious note, what should Australia do re: competition for the big 4?

    
    

    BOQ and BEN merging/takeover is a spectator talking point.

    
    

    Credit unions etc are huge in Oz too. Opportunity if legislation is friendlier to them.

    
    

    It all seems to come down to cost of funding/capital reserves, which is where no-one can compete with the big 4

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:50PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    bought it in the low $7s twelve months ago. Today’s movement!…Big deal. Sorry you missed it.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Scotty
    
    Location
    
    Kew
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:56PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    igroki, AusPost should be allowed to get a banking license. Labor would not allow it as the government does not want to own a bank, that means privitise AusPost and Ahmed will apply for a banking license. Possibly buy BEN.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    WWWish
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:07PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Oh yeah and I bought fmg at 5c and sold at $13 and other fairy tales.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:25PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Auspost and changing legislation to help credit unions is not going to help. They will join hands with big 4 and continue the loot. I am not sure about rules for foreign banks to operate here but if we have more foreign banks then that will create competition.
    Govt used 457 visas in spite of unemployement to reduce the wages of people here by creating competiotion. Same thing can be done for banks.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    xyz
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:26PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    We used to have reasonable foreign competition before the GFC. Since then, they sold off to the big 4

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:49PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @WWWish Its an intriguing idea with Auspost. As it does appear it will be privatized, the banking licence could be granted pre float. Would create a stampede of interest

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:54PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    A few months ago, Coles applied for a banking licence. It was widely reported, but this is the only link I can find:

    
    

    http://www.theland.com.au/news/agriculture/agribusiness/general-news/coles-applies-for-banking-licence/2670539.aspx

    
    

    Interesting times !

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bud Fox
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:19PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Support at 5300 ?

  
  

  Help us Tony.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Oracle
  
  Location
  
  2233
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:02PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Will not get any lower than 5275, trust me!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Support@4900
    
    Location
    
    ASX200
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:38PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Looking at GNC, DUE, BEN, SEK, CCL. So much to choose from. MTS may benefit from a better level of consumer sentiment, but will maintain a watch only. The question is ho far will this dip go.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Billy
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 12:01PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    GNC will tank back to $8 or $9 if the takeover is not approved. No idea why its taking so long, when Saputo got the OK in days

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:14PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Cabcharge appears to have received its third consecutive strike on its rem report”

  
  

  I like it!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:57AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The us unemployment rate is really 10 per cent plus.Bernanke knows it.QE will be with us most of next year as far as the high dollar is concerned.A interest rate reduction or two will make no difference.Australias growth will be lucky to reach 2 percent next year with the high dollar.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Pepper Pig
  
  Location
  
  Pig Pen
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:53AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Savings for real:
  Down down, prices are down
  Down down, prices are down
  We want all the world to see
  To see you’re savin’
  And your savin’s for real
  Down and down and down they go
  Again, again, again, again, again again, again
  Prices are down

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gee-tar Man
  
  Location
  
  Your Portfolio
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:45AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    You should have been a lyricist.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    bearly_there
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:19PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Another good day for the shorters. Market taking a beating.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:45AM

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    hope you’ve those bit coins handy.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:22PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Hope everyone has their cash ready to buy, not much further to fall!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Support@4900
  
  Location
  
  ASX200
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:38AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Very true.

    
    

    These up and down periods are as certain as the sun rising and setting.

    
    

    All aboard the Xmas express. Toot toot.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Oracle
    
    Location
    
    2233
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:08PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “not much further to fall!”
    hope you’re mistaken.
    the more the better.
    ANZ? yum!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:02PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Too bad you didn’t sell or short.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:35PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  CTD. wowee.

  
  

  A good SPP price has kept everyone happy. Up 14% at the moment

  
  

  100% plus gain last year.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  igroki
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:14AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    up 20% now. sellers outnumbered 30 to 1 (doesnt mean alot when stock has had big run – up or down – though)

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:36AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Could be that most read the first announcement at 8:47am saying that the offer price was 4 for every 27 at $0.21 per New Share!! The revised announcement at 10:13am states a price of $4.60 per new share.

    
    

    I wonder if those that bought on open before the revised announcement will get the new shares at $0.21 honoured

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JiMb0
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:46AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Ha. That would be hilarious.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:08PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    they must take care of all those pollies travel arrangments…cream
    biz class all the way pls.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Pamplona
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:23PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Bernanke saying he will keep interest rates low. This man is hellbent on making the US the new Japan. Let’s make no mistake about it.

  
  

  Not a day goes by without an article being published by one of Bernanke’s friends where Germany is slagged off for running a prudent economy concentraiting on sound fiscal policies and fundamentatls.

  
  

  Bernanke and his friends have as their long-term goal to sink the Western world. That much is clear by now.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Dr No
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:13AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I nearly died with laughter when I read America criticising Gemany for how they run their economy!!!

    
    

    How dare Germany make quality exports and not live on its credit card!!!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Fred
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:23AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Fred, who needs quality exports, excellent manufacturing products? Ha, that’s for amateurs. The US has facebook, twitter and many other ridiculous apps…that’s a true economy, that’s true value…LOL

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Realist
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:36AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Watch the video in this link: http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2012/s3430858.htm

    
    

    Don’t borrow money.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:43AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Fred – it’s not really America that is criticising Germany. Believe me, Bernanke and Yellen hate America as much as they hate Germany and Putin’s Russia.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dr No
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:45AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Maybe Germany realised approx 70 years ago the futility of war, but the good old US loves a scrap. Place a dollar value on playing world police force over this period and work out what could have been done (for the good of them mankind). The US will never resolve their debt issue and joe citizen will increasingly suffer.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    adults in charge
    
    Location
    
    somewhere in oz
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:04PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Oh dreary, deary me:
    QE is nothing more than the Fed buying up US treasury bonds from the banks. All that’s happening is that one financial asset on the banks’ balance sheets is being swapped for another, apparently to effect some minor interest rate reduction on longer term borrowing costs. As this Fed cash is being put into the banks’ reserves, it CANNOT BE LEANT OUT. So much for the myth of an explosion of money coursing through the economy, creating asset bubbles. It seems its biggest effect has become psychological due to the “money printing” myth that has grown around it.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:44PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Catch22 – Basically what is happening is that the US is spending one TRILLION dollars per year which is doesn’t have. And because nobody is crazy enough to lend any money to Obama anymore, the Fed is doing they lending by buying the treasury bonds that the Chinese used to buy before.

    
    

    The Federal Reserve, which is private bank with control over the US money supply, in my view constitute a clear and present danger to the US, and indeed to the rest of the world. As such the US should pull back its military from the Hindu Kush and Mesopotania and instead take on the Federal Reserve.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dr No
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:33PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Dr No,

    
    

    QE does NOT fund US government spending.

    
    

    QE is the process by which the US FED buys up treasury bonds that the banks had already purchased from the US Treasury. The role of those “treasuries” in funding US government spending had already happened prior to their purchase by the FED.

    
    

    QE is simply a way of changing the composition of US BANK RESERVES but the nominal value of those reserves remains UNCHANGED. The QE process can easily be reversed by the FED.

    
    

    Bank reserves are NOT LENT, that’s why they are called RESERVES.

    
    

    Cheerio.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    
    Location
    
    Please read carefully
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:47PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The US is spending 1/3 more than it’s earning, which amounts to some cool 1 trillion dollars per year. The federal debt is not 17 trillion dollars.

    
    

    Who pays the difference? Who’s lending money to the US? Somebody is writing the cheques. The left hand is spending while another part of the government is underwriting those cheques.

    
    

    I’m no expert on monetary policy, but surely the Fed with its power over money supply is the final underwriter of this borrowing madness?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dr No
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:03PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The FED could buy steaming hot treasuries straight from the US Treasury bakehouse if not enough buyers showed interest.but there is no such problem at present and with the economy growing steadily, if slowly, and the deficit shrinking at its fastest post WWII rate, there doesn’t seem to be an immediate difficulty in finding buyers for new treasuries.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:56PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  A little contrarian view on Australian banks:

  
  

  http://blog.variantperception.com/2013/11/18/morbidly-obese-australian-banks/

  
  

  Big, wobbling fatties, apparently.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Oh_Mighty_Zeus
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:11AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    What I find more interesting is that 98% of CBA’s mortgage portfolio is insured. Can someone remind me who is insuring it?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    GStamos
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:21AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Makes NAB look like the star of the Aus bunch

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    WWWish
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:27AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Fat, overpaid and uncompetitive.

    
    

    Cute remarks form Smith about strong banks being essential for a strong economy are rubbish. The banks have used their privileged position to gouge the public.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:54AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    What happens when/if interest rates start rising? Australia’s overleveraged investors start defaulting on their massive oversized mortgages and bank revenues/profits/dividends start collapsing.

    
    

    Who thinks that bank CEO’s salaries will follow? I doubt it.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Basic
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:16PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Our equity leading indicator for Australian banks corroborates this, which forecasts the sector turning down over the next 6 months – “

    
    

    6 months??…i suggest they get a new indicator.

    
    

    total bs article..sorry.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:28PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Australia has the OECD’s sixth highest level of household debt, at 184.9 per cent of gross household disposable income”.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:06AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “OECD says Australia’s relative unit labour costs have surged 54.1 per cent since 2000.

  
  

  By contrast, labour costs have fallen 14.6 per cent in Germany, 20.4 per cent in the UK, 25.9 per cent in the US and 46.2 per cent in Japan.”

  
  

  La la land.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 11:04AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Beggaring the masses never worked.. of all those places where would you rather be..

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Lean Too
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:13AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The fact that Australia has relatively high wages is something we should be proud of!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Fred
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:32AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Oh Fred…..Yes its great for those of us who are working, but understand it drives jobs off shore.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    WWWish
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:35AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    WWWish – Australia still has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world. Can you name a continent that has lower unemployment rates than the Great Southern Land?

    
    

    The industries that are losing jobs in Australia are the ones that are being destroyed by our suicidal free trade policies. No country on earth has lower tariffs than Australia, which is why manufacturing and agriculture are on their death beds.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Fred
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:46AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    A continent? LOL. Anyway Germany’s unemployment rate is 10% lower than Australia’s. And they didn’t have a mining boom gifted to them.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:11PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The growth in relative unit labour costs was largely the result of the resource investment boom. A large number of people were being well paid to build new mines. The same RULC rise happened in other countries like Canada that had a similar mining boom. Now that the investment is winding down and production is coming on line we are likely to see a large reduction in RULC growth.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    auscandoit
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:17PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Probably we need high wages to pay for overpriced houses. Imagine what will happen to housing if we reduce the wages. The housing is so overpriced that even high wages are not good enough and are houses are being sold to the foreigners. Even after this stuff up pollies get high perks and super which nobody else is allowed to have. Europe and specially Germany will survive economic downturn as they have big manufacturing industry. Most of the times unemployment rate given by govt. is always on the lower end as it does not include people who given up hope of getting any job. We should be looking at participation rate which is lowest in our case.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    xyz
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:10PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  And the response:

  
  

  “Thank you for taking the time to send the email below, we do read carefully every email received from shareholders in relation to the AGM.

  
  

  The email has gone to the Group GM Investor Relations in the first instance and she will be coming back to you over the next few days”

  
  

  Lets see

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Harry Rogers
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:56AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Sent the following to the ANZ Chairman:

  
  

  I continue to express my absolute disgust as a shareholder . The level of remuneration that you and your board pay the CEO is beyond comprehension.
  I am totally aware that these comments will fall on deaf ears as you clearly reside on another planet.

  
  

  However I am comforted by the fact that when time passes we all face the same fate however some will pass with absolute pride in their short time on earth and others will be remembered as gluttons and outright
  merchants of greed. Please pass on my comments to your board and CEO if he’s not too busy spending his weekly $200,000 . (Beyond comprehension!!)

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Harry Rogers
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:54AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Some are born to Lead, some to obey
    Some are born to Spend, some to pay
    That’s how it’s always been and always be…

    
    

    I deserve every cent I get…ohhh…almost choked on my black caviar…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bank CEO (Corporate Extravagant Opulence)
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:43AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I couldn’t care less what CEO’s are paid as long as they drive profitability and help my SMSF coffers overflow.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Hans
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:25PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hans

    
    

    You have the perfect logic of the masses. They don’t believe any of this filters through to society.

    
    

    And when they lose billions (viz BHP and RIO) I guess that’s OK as Hans and his SMSF will pay for the CEO’s retirement.

    
    

    Almost like “I don’t care who being taken away in my street just as long as they don’t come to my house|”

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Harry Rogers
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:29PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Worley Parsons has flagged a steep profit decline, admitting there has been no uplift in activity so far this financial year.”

  
  

  Nah.. there must be, banks are up up up!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:47AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Looks like the market has made up its mind on the Graincorp takeover, down 44c today and it’s still to go ex-div 20c.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:45AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  NCM Newcrest. Something definitely smells at Newcrest . No correlation between currents price movements and gold price or other. info available to shareholders.

  
  

  So…. whats new …hasn’t the Australian market always been only for people in the know and large hedge funds who can lose a million here and there with their market manipulations whilst the average trader is left with the wreckage.

  
  

  Truly has become disgusting.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Harry Rogers
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:44AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Seconded, for every bps drop in spot gold, there seems to be 10 bps drop in NCM price? and NCM is flat upon spot gold gaining, are they gold miner or not?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bob
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:33PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Agreed … Back to 9.11 again: Is this a fair share price or is it a sign that it’s time to invole an Emergency?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    NewCrest = No Cash
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:35PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  not the time to buy banks shares ppl.
  time to short them, if anything.
  how hard can it be!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  no banks .. no party!
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:40AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    You missed the top but better late than never.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:50AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    too easy winning with virtual gifts hey matey.
    i picked the top as i did the bottom in early june…this is an art …sorry.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:11PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Trades? Nope.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:26PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Trades?Yep.Keep searching….sorry this is an ART…you’ve no hope.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:48PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Trades? Nope.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 5:01PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Got an absolute skinning yesterday, got half of it back this morning. Go figure.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Peter
  
  Location
  
  Sunbury
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:34AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Very confident we will finish in the green today!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Keating
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:26AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Correct Paul, we have just had a small correction in a secular bull market!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Hawke
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:39AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I have often wondered.
    What does ‘Secular’ mean in this context?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Jimmy
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:57AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It means we’re in a bear market that started 6 years ago.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:09AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    A ‘Secular Bull Market’ is driven by forces that could be in place for many years, causing the price of a particular investment or asset class to rise over a long period of time. In a secular bull market, strong investor sentiment drives prices higher, as there are more net buyers than sellers.

    
    

    Infamous shorters will of course be in denial!

    
    

    regards

    
    

    RJLH,

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Hawke
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:21AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    looks red across the boards maybe the 12 oclock kick will be upward but could be indonesia/asia waiting to punish us…
    anz given up alot of gain….buying opportunities or waiting for further fall asx heart rate chart looking fatal….finding the floor of resistance at 5300, not alot of good news around to boost anything…im sideline for more STO/ORG/ANZ…Telstra at 5.00

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Pamplona
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:45AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    And the planet you reside is ________

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Not Nostradamus
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:45PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Oh that’s easy, I am from the land of debts and deficits, previously know as the great land downunder.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Keating
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 3:14PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Re: 10:07 story on JP Morgan.
  The firm says that $7B of the settlement is tax deductible:

  
  

  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-part-of-deal-will-be-tax-deductible-2013-11-19

  
  

  Why do I fell like, whether we are taxpayers or shareholders, we’ll getting ripped off by these guys in their mahogany lined offices ?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bud Fox
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:15AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    coz ya are

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mushroom
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:24AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Who is the Australian equivalent of JP Morgan

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Peter
    
    Location
    
    Sunbury
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:45AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    peter, I think MacBlank would be our low rent version of financial scummery. They made a motza out of Brisbane’s $3 billion Clem7 toll road or was it the $4.8 billion Airport Link? Both? Lane Cove and Cross City tunnel disasters in Sydney also? Bah! whatever! all have been financial calamities for our super funds but I’m sure the banksters got wonderful bonuses.

    
    

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/sydney-airport-and-the-magical-mystery-tour-20130823-2sha2.html

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Rev Jim Jones
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 12:05PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Veda’s prospectus shows that 86% of its assets are “Intangible assets that mostly comprise goodwill from the acquisition of Veda by POP and MLGPE”. So really all you’re buying is the debt that the private equity firms used to purchase Veda in the first place. And $195million in accumulated losses. So no franked dividends for a long long long time.
  Not really worth it.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Go Cats 23
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:14AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Will anyone from JP Morgan ever go to jail?

  
  

  Just about every week new corruption emerges there.

  
  

  If JP Morgan were teenagers in hoodies they would rightly be called a gang.

  
  

  From a purely selfish point of view I’m tempted to invest in them. If you can’t beat crooks, join em.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Fred
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:14AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    To the Gulags with the lot…that’s where they truly belong.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Stalin
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:26AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Warren Buffetr plunges $3.5 billion into Exxon Mobil. Nek minnit, Jim Chanos announces he;s going short, because “Exxon Mobil Corp increasingly look like a value trap for investors”.

  
  

  I think I know who I’ll be taking leads from on this one… (Hint: In the words of another favourite of these boards, Carl Icahn, ‘I Don’t See Jim Chanos On The Forbes 400 List’)

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  WPHT
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:13AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    jim chanos is a genius, get over it and enjoy my comments on this blog

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    allan bundy
    
    Location
    
    @maccas
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:24AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Jim Chanos was famously shorting Fortescue (FMG) too. Wonder how that’s going:-)

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Kingly
    
    Location
    
    Oz
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:37AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Neither is Robert J. Shiller winner of the 2013 Nobel prize for Economics.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:42AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    He’s short at over $6 so fine.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:43AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  If JP Morgan can agree to a $13B fine then it is too light and should obviously have been closer to $30B. It is meant to be punitive and is obviously not. Business as usual, corrupt business that is.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  ppeter
  
  Location
  
  Sunbury
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:10AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I’m a mug……I bought at the top after having conviction for years and being offshore and in cash……This is not a normal cycle, this is a festered corrupt financial system designed to transfer everyone’s wealth to a select few….and of course government….I’m out again with a small loss….

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  JohnBB
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 10:01AM

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    preserving your capital JBB
    smart fella no mug at all

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mushroom
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:19AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Interesting comment John. Is FOMO beginning?

    
    

    Mushroom, preserving cash is one thing, earning 3-4% when markets have returned approx 30% since last year is another.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Contrarian
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:32AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Thanks mushroom..@Contrarian..I did better than that. Got in and out a few times but yes FOMO was well and truly a factor…Same for housing but given the difficulty of getting in and out I WILL NOT CAPITULATE.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:46AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I like the attitude John. Capitulators always get smoked. They do worse than those who stick with a cash only strategy. Don’t capitulate but be aware if FOMO really kicks in in this low interest rate environment, we may have a bit to run yet IMO.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Contrarian
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:56AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “FOMO really kicks in in this low interest rate environment, we may have a bit to run yet”….I think if rates go down further banks will not be able to pass on because of Apra’s ruling re deposits and having to fund off shore…I also see hesitating by the only buyers; investors. Let’s hope, because the bigger this BS goes the bigger the fall MUST be. Wages will not be rising IMO.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:20AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The whole nature of FOMO is that is creates a biiger rise than what should occur and hence more pain when the bubble bursts. The big question is has FOMO been evident for a while or is it yet to really kick in? Time will tell.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Contrarian
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:33AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Agree entirely Contrarian. My opinion is those that CAN (or willing to) enter the market already have….So, I think it’s already happened but this time over a number of years where “this is the new normal” was spouted by all the usual offenders until the “new normal” just can’t be pushed any further….The fundamentals left long ago, the only people buying are chasing higher prices, to me, the epitome of a bubble. It’s not fair, many will be slaughtered, but in this world if you’re not going into things with eyes wide opened and looking at everyone’s opinion in business through the vested interest filter, then people are going to get burned. I’d love to see some of the grubs that led people to here pay a price, but as we’ve learned OS, sadly, it’s not going to happen.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:43AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    All bout risk contrarian innit.
    u trader or holder contrarian??

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mushy
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:48AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Always about risk/reward Mushy. I’m generally a long-term holder. Looking for opportunities ATM so don’t mind this pull-back though. Always looking for opportunities and there aren’t many great ones IMO at present levels. A few coming on my radar now though.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Contrarian
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:08PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Must be great being a long term investor and having negative return for five years.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:27PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Contrarian……I’m also looking around for value..Silver is becoming very cheap. Lower than production cost..Can’t see any other value around…..CBA is about 30% over priced IMO at today’s earnings.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 1:28PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yeah Al, with the ASX accumulation index at record highs I must be hating life. $2.30 cost base for BHP makes me feel ill. I also hate the 3 for 7 WES did at $13.50. Woe is me.

    
    

    John CBA is probably 30% over priced. The chase for yield and quality may keep it inflated though. Good luck. Do the opposite of Al and you’ll go ok.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Contrarian
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 2:49PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Commodities were hit pretty hard overnight with natural gas falling 1.3% and industrial metals also losing their appeal”

  
  

  Good for house prices!

  
  

  Oh and Origin. he he…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 9:58AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Great interview series with Kerry Obrien and Paul Keating. It’s remarkable how the reforms of 1983 have been unwound to the point where we are back to having the four major banks gouging, making lazy profits and paying themselves obscene salaries.

  
  

  A banks ceo is not worth $200,000 per week. A bank is a glorified but simple utility. They don’t do anything difficult you know like electricity generation and distribution.

  
  

  Short $$$$$

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 9:55AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I concur…I knew someone who used to work in a bank for years, they always said they were driven to insanity and depression by the bank management asking their staff to always push all sorts of products to customers. These people, the tellers and the back office staff deserves the higher pay packets, not the CEOs and executives, the Larvaes of the banks…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Market Guru
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:10AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    What happened to the obscene wages being voted on by the share holders…That’s right. The vested interest of the share holders…The greediest generation to ever walk the earth……I read this today….”follow the money and see where the money for high wages are coming from”….. Higher house prices = higher wages = higher house prices multiply by five = Higher salaries for the people running the country; the banks. Until it all falls apart and they walk away with their multi millions while “ordinary” people are left with decades of lost earnings and wealth….You could not make this stuff up…Wake up Australia.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:13AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I think the old wind bag should be left to mumble to himself without the aid of the ABC and its lefty luvvies. His views are not new, and the self congratulatory stuff wore thin years ago.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Peter
    
    Location
    
    Sunbury
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:18AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    in due course
    short the index too

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mushroom
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:22AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Must be why the interview series is rating so well.

    
    

    What did the Romans ever do for us? he he….

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:23AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  This cartoon best sums up the ‘quantitative easing’ going on in the US !

  
  

  http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/11/20131117_itsallshit.jpg

  
  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bud Fox
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 9:54AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yes, i like it. It also sums up the guff we get from the RBA and its talking heads.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Peter
    
    Location
    
    Sunbury
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:12AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  CCV took a drop yesterday however their AGM presentation today looks good – get on board for profits

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Pete the pom
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 9:46AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Isn’t CCV’s business model under attack by the regulators and a $40m class action.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/cash-converters-faces-40m-suit-20131009-2v8n2.html

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:13AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    leeches on society supporting crime and imbalance inside the community…wheres the barge pole.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Pamplona
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:33AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yes the ambulance chasers are after them however firms like CCV are needed for the cash strapped battlers I think you call them.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Pete the pom
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:40AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Preditory lending and the debt cycle trap. I could not sleep if I conducted business like this.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    WWWish
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:30AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    If CCV and CAB both vanished who would care?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 11:55AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Spot gold price is just keeping going in one direction, NCM directors are abandoning their comfy ship.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bob
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  November 20, 2013, 9:38AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    In their business segment on ch24 yesterday a market analyst said that they anticipated that the continued stimulus in the US would boost the price of gold. He admitted they got it wrong. I would say that the continued stimulus has reduced the risk in the world economy and the incentive to use gold as a secure store of wealth along with it.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 9:46AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    As i wrote the other day it is possible to find quotes from so called experts both supporting the idea that the QE will cause the price of gold to drop and the price of gold to rise. Most experts, like journalists, are simply post activity commentators with an audience. Some of them are even crooks – ie see JP Morgan.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    peter
    
    Location
    
    Sunbury
    
    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:00AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I wouldn’t be too sure that prices will remain subdued for too much longer.

    
    

    There is very very strong physical demand for gold in China that has been growning significantly. The figures for Chinese consumption this year are astonishing!

    
    

    Now usually the price maker for Gold is the Comex futures index which though paper based is backed by a warehouse usually full of gold.

    
    

    At this very moment the Comex warehouse is running very low. I cannot understate how low this is and its implications. There is around 18 tons at the moment. The last time stockpiles were this low was in 1999 prior to a good bump in price. And some say that the Aussie reserve bank sold our Gold reserves to help bail out the exchange and bullion banks about to get short squeezed on physical supply.

    
    

    So It stands to see what will happen when the Comex physical inventory is depleted. It will be definitely be interesting.

    
    

    There has been a huge transfer of Gold from West to East underneath our noses.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Black Swan
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    November 20, 2013, 10:47AM
    

  
  



Comments are now closed





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