Markets Live: Quiet before the storm

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October 16, 2013 – 1:22PM

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The Australian market has bounced back after US Senate leaders resumed last-minute talks on avoiding a debt default, but investors remain cautious.

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4:21pm: Economics correspondent Peter Martin discusses what might follow a US debt default and whether it is even possible to prepare for the consequences.







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4:17pm: The stock market has closed slightly higher, led up by the miners and defying early predictions of a slump as the US debt imbroglio continues.




The benchmark SP/ASX200 inched up 3.8 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 5262.9, while the broader All Ords gained 5.2 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 5264.4.




Among the sectors, materials added 0.8 per cent, with iron ore plays leading the charge. Financials and retails stocks ended flat, while telcos dropped 0.8 per cent.









4:06pm:China should implement more policies to protect retail stock investors to ensure the healthy development of the country’s capital market, the head of the securities regulator says.




Retail investors with less than 500,000 yuan of investment account for about 60 per cent of the total market transaction value, but they suffer from inadequate information disclosure by listed companies as well as illegal behavior by some of them, Xiao Gang, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), wrote in the official People’s Daily.




“Protecting the interest of small investors has been a key hurdle of the development of the capital markets,” he said.









3:59pm: The CommSec Car Affordability index has improved to the best levels since 1976. CommSec estimates that someone earning the average wage has to work for around 26 weeks to purchase a new Ford Falcon XT auto sedan, down from around 30 weeks just two years ago:



• Interestingly the data has indicated that new car prices have been relatively stable in recent years. Listed new car prices for the Holden Commodore, Ford Falcon and Toyota Corolla haven’t moved in the past 18 months. However over the same period the average weekly wage has lifted by almost 7 per cent, confirming a sharp improvement in car affordability.


• Over the past decade, the average wage has increased by over 55 per cent. But family sedans such as the Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore have increased by just 6-7 per cent while luxury vehicles from BMW, Mercedes Benz and Porsche have actually fallen over the period.



“There is a perception that goods can only go up in price and never fall. And while that holds for a raft of goods, that doesn’t always apply,” CommSec says. “The petrol price rises and falls over time as do food prices, in particular, fruit and vegetables. But even some car prices have fallen over the past decade in response to a firmer currency, lower tariffs and competitive forces.”







Change in car prices









3:51pm: The local market has actually had a solid day considering we had a dismal start to the session, notes IG’s Stan Shamu:



• Iron ore names have really lit up the boards today, with solid performances from heavyweights Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. Rio has continued its momentum from yesterday’s production report.


• We’ve seen even stronger performances from pure plays, with big gains from Fortescue, Atlas Iron and Mount Gibson. MGX has jumped over 5% on the back of a quarterly activities report in which it reiterated FY14 sales guidance with Q1 iron ore sales of 2.6Mt, up 47% on year. Ideally I would want to see the stock close above 84 cents. This would open it up for a move to 90 cents in the near term.


• Lagging the miners is Iluka which has declined after its production report disappointed.


• In the defensive space, CSL is having a stellar day after announcing a $950 million buyback. This is a bit more than what the market was expecting and has been well received. I feel this could be a catalyst for the stock to make its way back up towards its all-time high at $68.








3:41pm:A federal judge questioned whether pension rights for Detroit’s municipal workers can be guaranteed by Michigan’s constitution, as claimed by current and retired employees seeking to have the city’s $US18 billion bankruptcy case thrown out.




US Bankruptcy Judge Steven Rhodes pressed lawyers yesterday in a Detroit court to explain why Michigan municipal pension commitments can never be revised and to say whether that position means the state must guarantee payments.




Rhodes challenged unions and a city pension system on their claims that the state constitution bars any cuts to municipal retiree payments, in or out of bankruptcy. Even proposing the cuts makes a city ineligible for bankruptcy protection, they have said.




‘‘Is there any other constitutional right, state or federal that is that absolute?’’ Rhodes asked an attorney for a pension system that opposes the bankruptcy. ‘‘Even freedom of the press isn’t that absolute, is it?’’




Union lawyers and a committee representing retired workers made legal arguments yesterday in Detroit to have the city’s filing under Chapter 9 of the US Bankruptcy Code rejected. The hearing will continue today. Next week, Rhodes is set to hear from witnesses about whether the city is eligible to remain in bankruptcy.









3:33pm: It wouldn’t be the first time, but maybe sharemarket valuations are moving too far ahead of the real world.




As interest rates are being cut, at some point there is always a big swing of cash into cyclical stocks such as building materials, retailers and the like, in advance of an uptick in earnings that usually flows from easier monetary policy.




Hence the handy lift in prices of many construction sector-related stocks and retailers over the past quarter.




But tuning in to what is happening back in the real world gives a sobering assessment since the annual meeting season gives investors a quick update on trading conditions in the new financial year.




And it’s not too flash.




Read more









3:15pm:China, the US’s largest creditor abroad, urged American lawmakers opposed to raising the debt limit by tomorrow to get out of the way. Tea Party Republicans’ response: mind your own business.




The US must “shoulder its responsibility” as the world’s biggest economy and holder of the main reserve currency and “take concrete measures before October 17 to avoid a default,” Deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said at a briefing with reporters yesterday in Beijing in which he referred to “the attitude of the Tea Party.”




Lawmakers tied to the Tea Party didn’t appreciate the advice, even from a nation that holds almost a quarter of foreign-owned Treasuries — $US1.28 trillion as of July.




“They need to stay out of our politics,” Representative Blake Farenthold, a Tea Party-backed Texas Republican, said in an interview. China’s criticism “almost sounds like a threat,” said Representative Ted Yoho, a Florida Republican. “For them to say something derogatory about the Tea Party, I take offense to that.”




 









3:05pm:Australia’s aviation sector will be comprehensively examined by federal government to ensure it can meet predicted domestic and international growth.




Nationals leader Warren Truss, who has ministerial responsibility for transport, told a meeting of air safety delegates the coalition government plans a series of reviews on safety and competitiveness.




‘‘A review of skills and workforce requirements … will provide an evidence-based and coordinated approach to training and workforce development to meet industry needs,’’ he told the Safeskies Australia conference in Canberra today.




The skills review will look at a wide range of aviation occupations including pilots, cabin crew, air traffic controllers, maintenance and engineering staff, aviation security and airport employees.




‘‘The future is likely to be challenging, and we need to ensure that we plan effectively,’’ Mr Truss said.









2:40pm:Tourists to Western Australia spent more than $7 billion there last year, despite the continuing economic struggle in Europe reducing the number of visitors from the UK.




WA Tourism’s annual report has revealed seven million visitors to Australia spent at least one night in WA in 2012-13, an increase of nearly eight per cent on the previous year.




More than 14 million day trip visitors added to the spend.




But Tourism Research Australia said, while international visitors to WA grew, the increase was below the national average due to the UK, Europe and the US still being ‘‘economically weak’’ as tourism markets.




Inbound visitors to the state rose by 2.3 per cent, which was attributable to higher-than-expected growth from interstate tourists.









2:28pm:China should implement more policies to protect retail stock investors to ensure the healthy development of the country’s capital market, the head of the securities regulator said today.




Retail investors with less than 500,000 yuan ($860,565) of investment account for about 60 per cent of the total market transaction value, but they suffer from inadequate information disclosure by listed companies as well as illegal behaviour by some of them, Xiao Gang, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), wrote in the official People’s Daily.




“Protecting the interest of small investors has been a key hurdle of the development of the capital markets,” he said.




The government needs to protect investor rights to access information, improve the decision-making mechanism and shareholders’ voting at listed companies, open various channels to solve disputes and improve the compensation mechanism for small investors, Xiao added.




The CSRC has been stepping up efforts to restore investor confidence in the market. It has been clamping down on insider trading and has frozen initial public offerings for over a year to ensure the quality of companies listing on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.









2:08pm: And some more on the looming debt deadline, this time in the fairly colourful words of US economist Kenneth Rogoff:




America faces ‘‘financial Armageddon,’’ the professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund warns.




In an interview with London’s Telegraph, he compares President Barack Obama’s position to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the Kennedy administration refused to negotiate with Cuba and the Soviet Union despite the threat of potential nuclear destruction.




‘‘It’s very hard to see a silver lining to this. It’s a constitutional breakdown [but] threatening financial Armageddon is blackmail,’’ says Rogoff, who is now a professor of economics and public policy at Harvard.




‘‘President Obama should push them [the Republicans] to the brink. This has implications beyond the moment. There is a danger of weakening the presidency on a long-term basis.’’




Rogoff says that a bond default would be ‘‘catastrophic’’ to the global economy and that investors’ faith would be permanently shaken. ‘‘Their virginity will be lost.”







Kenneth Rogoff. Photo: Bloomberg









1:43pm: As the clock heads towards midnight, Washington time, it’s increasingly clear that if there is to be a last-minute deal ahead of Thursday’s default deadline it will be just that: last minute, 11th hour.




Reports out of Washington are saying Senate leaders, who are currently leading the talks after Republican disarray in the House, will not announce a deal to raise the debt ceiling on Tuesday (US time).




That leaves politicians little more than 24 hours to finally extend the Treasury’s borrowing authority.





Meanwhile, the market has lost some of its initial optimism and is now running flat as investors lose faith in a compromise during today’s local session.









1:28pm: Most investors are still assuming that Washington will reach a debt ceiling compromise before the Treasury misses any payments on its debt.




The US Treasury’s borrowing authority expires tomorrow, but there’s still an estimated $US30 billion in its hands to pay the most immediate bills.




In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs economists said that, based on their projections, the Treasury department should have enough money to make it through next week.




“That said, given the volatility in the Treasury’s daily cash flows, as the Treasury’s cash balance dwindles the risk of a failure to make scheduled payments increases,” the Goldman note said.




Even if Congress does strike an agreement, investors have been preparing for the possibility that the debt ceiling will be lifted only until later this year or early next year, merely postponing a default.




“Whichever plan is adopted, the riot point will likely be only temporarily avoided,” Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities, wrote on Tuesday afternoon.









1:09pm:Police have arrested Australian businessmen Vanda Gould and John Leaver and Belgian national Peter Borgas as part of an Operation Wickenby investigation into $30 million of tax evasion and money laundering.




Mr Gould, who is chairman of listed investment company CVC, and Mr Leaver, who is a director of the company, were arrested in raids on their Sydney homes on Tuesday night.




Mr Borgas was arrested at Sydney International Airport as he was preparing to return to Switzerland, where he is based.




They face possible jail terms of up to 25 years.




Properties in the Sydney and Melbourne central business districts were also raided.




Read more









1:01pm:The owners of more than 20 US Treasury securities are most at risk as the US Congress struggles to resolve an impasse that threatens a default on the US debt, with the Federal Reserve almost certainly the largest holder in the crosshairs.




The Treasury notes, worth an aggregate of $US773.3 billion, either mature or are due an interest payment of about $US6 billion on October 31. Another $US300 billion of short-term T-bills maturing through that date are expected to be rolled over using proceeds from bill auctions occurring before then.




As a result of the large interest payment due that date, and $US58 billion in other obligations coming due the following day, many analysts have circled October 31 as a possible date for default if Congress has still failed to reach an agreement to raise the US government’s $US16.7 trillion debt ceiling.




Uncertainty about how the Treasury expects to manage that potential problem has put pressure on many of the individual Treasury notes and bills that have a payment due on October 31.




For instance, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note that matures October 31 – which was auctioned on October 25, 2011, with a coupon of 0.25 percent – shot to an all-time high of about 0.73 per cent on Tuesday following news that negotiations to resolve the impasse had broken down.









12:54pm:The Australian government has sold $800 million of April 15, 2020 Treasury bonds.




The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM), which conducts bond auctions on behalf of the government, said the bonds were sold for a weighted average yield of 3.7951 per cent.




The sale attracted bids totalling $2.410 billion, giving a coverage ratio of 3.01.









12:43pm:A court has thrown out claims by the wife of former ABC Learning childcare tycoon Eddy Groves that he forged her signature to obtain bank loans.




The Queensland Supreme Court on Wednesday dismissed the case bought by Le Neve Groves against her ex-husband and three banks – Citibank Singapore, CitiGroup and BT Securities.




Dr Groves was seeking compensation after alleging her husband forged her signature to allow him to use $33 million of ABC Learning shares as a guarantee to obtain margin loans with the banks.




Dr Groves was a director of ABC Learning until it went into liquidation in 2008.




During the trial, Dr Groves also alleged her former husband was physical abusive and controlled most of her financial affairs even after they separated in 1998.




In dismissing the claim, Judge Glenn Martin said that Dr Grove’s evidence during the trial could not be believed.









12:31pm: Here’s some more US optimism: After its AGM, CSL’s new CEO Paul Perreault described the government shutdown as “US politics, ad nauseam” but tipped a result before the Thursday deadline.




“I grew up in the US, obviously, so you see this sort of outcome more and more as the political divide between the two [political] parties,” he told reporters. “I think they’ll work it out and we’ll move ahead. They always seem to meet the deadline at some point.”









12:23pm: The advertising market is continuing to dry up for the media industry, but there are glimmers of hope.




Agency advertising in metro newspapers dropped by 32 per cent in September, according to the Standard Media Index (SMI).




Credit Suisse analysts said this was the 15^th consecutive double-digit contraction and the worst monthly result on record.




However, digital advertising grew 19 per cent, year-on-year, in September.




“We forecast total market growth of ~3% for 2013, with growth to pick up in the last quarter. Agency advertising is +1.3% YTD. Note that the SMI data is for agency ad spend only and thus excludes the majority of Digital Search and Classifieds revenues, which are booked directly.”




““Digital ad spend continues to substantially outperform traditional media, with +18.9% reported growth in September (+17.9% ex-political). August’s originally reported +19.1% growth was revised upwards to +26.7%, suggesting September’s true growth rate could be closer to +25%. Traditional online display growth was +10% in September (vs August’s revised result of +15%), with emerging platforms continuing to drive additional growth.”









12:15pm: Here’s an interesting lunchtime read by Marcus Padley on why money alone doesn’t make us happy:




Money is an amazing motivator; it causes us to do astonishing things. Like grind it out in boring jobs, take unusual risks, sacrifice our values, and ignore our families, as well as inspiring us to greatness, to invention, innovation and charity. But does it make us happy?




I met a rich bloke once who answered the question like this: ”No.” And he gave his reasons. He envied people like me with four kids, a mortgage and school fees. I had purpose. I had passion. I had a father’s drive to deliver, financially, for his family. What a task. What a reason to get up every day. What greater purpose?




I was lucky, he said. I had something to live for, a direction, a focus, a knowledge that every day I would set out to succeed. I had the excuse to exercise my brain every day, to constantly develop my intellectual assets.




That’s what set me on course, what put me in contact with the interesting, the exciting and the possible. It is what drove me to be innovative, competitive and enterprising. The pursuit of that feeling that you have delivered, handsomely, for your family.




Read more








What price the safety of your children? Photo: Sharon Dominick









12:05pm: Warrnambool Cheese and Butter has urged its shareholders to reject a takeover proposal from rival Bega Cheese, saying the offer is inferior to one put forward by Canadian dairy giant Saputo.




Bega last week said it intended to put its takeover offer to WCB shareholders, despite saying it would not lift its offer to match that put forward by Saputo. It said it believed some WCB shareholders would prefer the company remain in Australian hands.




But the WCB board today urged its shareholders to reject the deal and ignore all documentation sent to them by Bega. They pointed out that a recent independent audit found Bega’s offer was neither ‘‘fair nor reasonable’’ to WCB shareholders.




Saputo has put forward a $7 a share takeover offer that values WCB at around $390 million.




WCB shares are down 0.1 per cent at $7.21.









11:55am:Sealink Travel Group, which owns Captain Cook Cruises, has joined a long list of IPOs to hit the market this year, in a successful debut for the stock.




Sealink shares (SLK) opened at $1.51, significantly higher than the $1.10 price tag offered during the IPO. They are currently trading at $1.48, taking its market capitalisation to $103.3 million.




Around 54 per cent of the company’s revenue comes from its Kangaroo Island operations, while 34 per cent comes from Captain Cook Cruises.




According to Motley Fool, Sealink has a stronghold over Kangaroo Island, many companies have tried to break into the market, with six failing since 1989.









11:46am: In a blunt assessment of the overnight chaos emerging from Washington, President Barack Obama says the frantic stop-and-go effort in Congress to avoid a debt default and end a government shutdown is “a mess”.




In recent days Obama has tamped down some of his more harsher partisan rhetoric, dropping the “gun to the head” metaphors, in an apparent effort to encourage some semblance of goodwill.




He is still making a point of blaming the partial government shutdown and threat of a debt default on his opponents, saying conservative Tea Party Republicans made “a very extreme decision to use very extreme tactics” that moderate Republicans are struggling to overcome.




“And what we’ve seen as a result is the kind of mess that we’re seeing today,” Obama told WABC.




Of trying to work out a compromise with House of Representative Speaker John Boehner, the top US Republican, Obama stated the obvious: That the more conservatives see Boehner working with him, the worse it is for the speaker among his Republican caucus.




“It weakens him,” Obama said. “So there have been repeated situations where we have agreements, then he goes back and it turns out that he can’t control his caucus. So the challenge here is can you deliver on agreements that are made.”









11:32am:Japanese shares are swinging between gains and losses as investors watch developments in the US impasse over raising the debt limit to avoid a default.




The Topix has lost 0.1 per cent, while the Nikkei is little changed.




Futures on Wall Street’s Standard Poor’s 500 index gained 0.6 per cent after Senate leaders resumed talks aimed at ending the gridlock.




‘‘It’s all very confusing and extremely frustrating,’’ says IG strategist Chris Weston. ‘‘There’s not a lot of clarity now, so people are probably going to stay on the sidelines until we get something more meaty on the bone. The leaders in the Senate are optimistic and that’s keeping the markets supported.’’




Investors holding $US120 billion of Treasury bills coming due tomorrow are increasingly worried they won’t get paid.




Fitch Ratings placed the nation’s AAA credit rating on a negative watch overnight, citing the government’s failure to raise the borrowing limit as the deadline approaches.









11:21am: Australia’s economy has suffered a significant loss of momentum since the start of the year as its transition away from being a mining investment gets bumpy.




The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 3.2 per cent in August, down from four per cent in July but marginally above its long term trend of 2.9 per cent.




‘‘Although the growth rate in the leading index remains slightly above trend, it has slowed abruptly over the last six months,’’ Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.




‘‘Some months ago the index was pointing to significantly above trend growth in 2013 but this current slowdown is more consistent with Westpac’s growth forecasts,’’ he said.




 









11:11am: Here’s what Reuters says on the last-minute deal speculation:




Democratic and Republican leaders in the US Senate could announce a deal later tonight (Washington time) to extend the government’s borrowing authority until February 7 and quickly re-open federal agencies that have been closed since October 1, a Senate aide said.




The aide described a deal in line with provisions that were being negotiated in the Senate before a failed House of Representatives proposal suspended those talks. The provisions include a temporary government spending bill running through January 15.




The aide said discussions were also underway in which the Republican-controlled House, if it co-operated, could help speed up passage of any deal before a Thursday deadline when the Treasury Department says it will bump up against its borrowing limit.









11:08am: The dollar has just bounced from the session low of 94.99 US cents around 10am to a high of 95.41 US cents on the back of the speculation that there might be a US debt deal today.









11:02am: The annual FIX Conference is in Sydney today, at the Westin Hotel, with buy-and-sell-side traders, technology firms, regulators and representatives from exchange operators on hand.




The organisers have just held an electronic vote, asking the audience what kind of impact recent regulatory changes have had on the local market. Here are the results:




Positive impact: 31%




Negative impact: 49%




No change: 20%




The room laughed when the results were flashed on the screen.




Funny, because a commissioner from ASIC, Cathie Armour, had just completed a 35 minute speech about the efforts ASIC has made to keep pace with changes in trading technology in the last 12 months, including establishing taskforces on high frequency trading and dark pools.









10:53am: Intel, the world’s biggest computer chipmaker, says its quarterly profit dipped 0.7 per cent from a year ago to $US2.95 billion ($A3.12 billion), but it managed to beat Wall Street estimates.




Intel, which is struggling to make inroads in the surging market for processors for smartphones and tablets in a rapidly shifting tech landscape, said that revenues for the third quarter were up a scant 0.2 per cent at $US13.48 billion.




The profit translated to 58 cents a share, or five cents better than the Wall Street consensus.




“The third quarter came in as expected, with modest growth in a tough environment,” said Intel chief executive Brian Krzanich.




The Silicon Valley giant claims its new, low-power, high-performance Silvermont chip design unveiled in May could be used in segments ranging from smartphones to the data center.









10:48am: Here’s how the sectors have opened:



• Materials: +0.4%


• Consumer staples: -0.6%


• Consumer discretionary: -0.2%


• Energy: -0.6%


• Financials: -0.5%


• Gold : +0.5%


• Health: +0.3%


• Industrials: -0.6%








10:41am: Time is running out fast for a solution to the US debt stalemate, and the Republicans seem intent on taking this issue to the wire.




The Republican-led US House of Representatives failed again to produce a plan to lift the threat of a government default and has abandoned plans to vote on any measure today, meaning that any resolution will be an 11th hour one as the default deadline approaches on Thursday.




Representative Pete Sessions, a senior House Republican, emerged from a meeting in House Speaker John Boehner’s office telling reporters Republicans would try to come up with a new plan on Wednesday.




Boehner tried twice on Tuesday to move a debt limit and government funding bill to the House floor for passage but failed to get enough support.




Meanwhile, US Senate leaders are quoted as saying they’re optimistic a debt limit and government funding deal is within reach. Says a spokesman of Senate majority leader Harry Reid.









10:36am: Blood plasma company CSL says first quarter trading was in line with expectations but a settlement in the US will cut growth in net profit to 7 per cent from 10 per cent.




The settlement, announced recently but yet to be approved by the US courts, will result in a one-off charge of $US39 million, CSL said at its annual general meeting.




CSL also announced another buyback, this one $950 million over 12 months.




In early trade, CSL shares are up 1.1 per cent to $66.14.









10:31am: Apple has poached Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts to head up its retail division.




Ahrendts, who will be Apple’s first female executive in nearly a decade, comes with a sparkling reputation, having helped Burberyy turn its fortunes around.




Apple didn’t disclose what she is being paid, but in 2011-12, Ahrendts was the highest-earning CEO in Britain, earning $26.2 million.




Read more







In demand: Angela Ahrendts is on her way to Apple. Photo: Bloomberg









10:25am: After all the gloom surrounding the US debt standoff, here’s some optimism by Goldman Sachs’ Richard Coppleson:




“I still stand by my 5600 end of year target,” he writes in a note:



• As far as I can see our GS strategy team seem to be the second most bullish with their 5300 target they put on around March (well done) while the rest seem to be cluttered around 4800 to 5100.


• So we remain the most bullish in the market – and have been all year long – and seeing what I’m seeing now – this market is going to be a lot higher by the end of the year and thus after seeing the ASX 200 up +14.6 per cent in 2012 we are right now quite interestingly almost exactly the same with index +13.10% with over 2 ½ months to go.








10:16am: Deal or no deal? Well markets don’t seem to care, notes Rivkin analyst Tim Radford:



• Many analysts continue to underestimate the incompetence of the US political system and its ability to find a deal on raising the debt ceiling that’s not irresponsibly last minute.


• Equity markets are largely ignoring the stalemate in Washington as most people think a deal will be reached by Thursday. But who knows, especially when there are idealistic Tea Party members ready to put the global economy at risk of another financial crisis, likely dwarfing the 2008 GFC.


• Worst case scenario aside, regardless of how idealistic certain politicians are we must expect Washington will come to its senses and find some formal agreement by Thursday.


• Aside from shorter dated government debt, most asset classes have barely reacted to the shenanigans in Washington over the past week. If we use that as a gauge, either everyone is blind and naive or it is representative that a deal will still likely be reached, or even that quantitative easing in its current form will be here to stay in 2013.


• The escalation in shoutings over the debt ceiling and government shutdown more than anything is likely a reflection of rising anti-government sentiment from Main Street in the US, stemming from ongoing political games in Washington.


• The longer a deal is delayed, the more likely we’ll see another 2011 event in which we see some extreme risk off moves. For the bulls’ sake, let’s hope we see a deal soon.








10:13am: The market has opened lower, with the benchmark SP/ASX200 sliding 28.6 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 5230. The broader All Ords has dropped 27.4 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 5231.8.









10:06am: Social networking website Twitter said it would list its stock on the New York Stock Exchange, dealing a blow to the tech-heavy Nasdaq which bungled rival Facebook’s initial public offering.




In an amended IPO filing, Twitter updated its financials and user figures along with expanded details of investors.




Twitter sustained its pace of revenue growth in the third quarter, more than doubling its third quarter revenue to $US168.6 million ($177 million).




But the company widened its net loss to $US64.6 million in the September quarter compared with $US21.6 million a year earlier.




Twitter also said it has 230 million monthly active users, up from about 218 million when the company first disclosed its S-1 filing on October 3.




 









9:59am:Citigroup posted weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings overnight as bond market trading volume dropped, hurting revenue at the No. 3 US bank and across Wall Street.




The bank’s bond trading revenue dropped 26 per cent, or $US956 million, excluding an accounting adjustment, and revenue at most of its major businesses dropped.




The fall in fixed-income revenue could spell trouble for investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which post results later this week. Volumes dropped after the Federal Reserve said it plans to continue its bond buying stimulus program, giving assurance to investors that they can hold onto their bonds for a little longer.




Late in the quarter, investors also grew increasingly concerned about the government’s fiscal impasse, which made many reluctant to trade.




“I don’t think anybody wanted to get in front of that,” said TCW fund manager Diane Jaffee, who counts Citigroup among her top 10 holdings. The budget and debt ceiling crises continue to weigh on trading volumes in the fourth quarter, analysts said.




Citigroup posted net income of $US3.2 billion ($3.3 billion) in the July-September quarter, up from $US468 million in the same quarter in 2012. Earnings per share came in at $US1.00, up from 15 cents a year earlier.




Excluding a tax benefit and CVA/DVA adjustment – the risk-based adjustment of derivative asset valuation – earnings were $US1.02 per share, below the $US1.04 analysts estimated.









9:58am: CMC analyst Ric Spooner is expecting a subdued day on the markets, with caution ruling as local investors keep an eye on developments in the US.




Investors appear content to take a wait-and-see attitude to this situation. Equity markets are heading into the “pointy end” of the US debt ceiling negotiations with arguably very little risk premium built into current valuations for a bad outcome. While this significantly increases the risk of a large sell-off if the wheels were to fall off world credit markets, investors seem reluctant to incur the opposite risk of being out of the market if the situation blows over. The general belief is that in the final analysis markets are unlikely to be seriously disrupted by this situation.




This “she’ll be right” attitude has a number of strands. Firstly, history suggests that politicians will pull back from the abyss. Secondly, there may be scope to prioritise spending to avoid a debt default for another week or to. Thirdly, a temporary technical default may not necessarily be cataclysmic for markets.










9:53am: Brambles’ sales revenue from its pooling-solutions operations rose 7 per cent to $US1.312 billion in the first quarter due in part to its acquisition of container company Pallecon in late 2012.




The Sydney company’s pooling business provides wooden pallets and containers to businesses. Brambles, the world’s largest supplier of wooden pallets, said the increase in revenue reflected new business and the contribution of Pallecon, which it bought for $170 million in December.




It also said it was on track to deliver an underlying profit of between $US930 million and $US985 million for the year.




”Our trading performance in pooling solutions during the first quarter of 2014 was broadly in line with our expectations,” Brambles chief executive Tom Gorman said.




”Despite continued muted levels of underlying sales growth in the consumer staples sector, we are benefiting from the execution of our growth strategy.”




Brambles’ pooling solutions does not include its Recall information management business, which will be spun off into a separately listed company by December.









9:49am: The impasse in Washington could cost the US its AAA rating with ratings agency Fitch placing it on ‘negative watch’.




‘‘The political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could increase the risk of a US default,’’ Fitch said in a statement.




Fitch reiterated that it expects the debt ceiling to be raised




Standard Poor’s stripped the US of its top credit ranking in 2011 on Washington gridlock and the lack of an agreement to contain its growing ratio of debt to gross domestic product.




Read more









9:44am: Some analyst ratings changes:



• Cochlear cut to ‘underweight’ at JPMorgan.


• OZ Minerals cut to ‘hold’ at GMP.


• Transpacific Industries cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan.


• Western Areas raised to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank.


• QBE Insurance rated ‘new buy’ at Bell Potter.


• Iluka Resources downgraded to ‘neutral’ at UBS.


• Crown raised to ‘outperform’ at Macquarie.



 









9:40am: BlackBerry shareholders have launched a class-action lawsuit against the company, alleging its optimistic sales forecasts for its new smartphones cost them hundreds of millions of dollars.




The lawsuit on behalf of Canadian shareholders who purchased BlackBerry stock between September 27, 2012, and September 20 of this year, alleges that senior management “knowingly or negligently” misrepresented that its BlackBerry 10 line of smartphones were being well-received by consumers and that the company was in a strong financial position.




‘‘For almost a full year, BlackBerry management made market statements based on prophecy rather than fact,’’ class-action lawyer Tony Merchant said in a statement.




Read more









9:33am: Talks in Washington on a new US debt deal have stalled again, as we get closer to Thursday’s deadline.




Senate leaders had been close to a deal that would reopen the government and raise the debt limit until early 2014, while the initial alternative plan proposed by House Republican leaders failed to gain enough support in a closed-door meeting for the House to proceed.




“There are a lot of opinions about what direction to go. There have been no decisions about exactly what we will do,” House Speaker John Boehner told reporters after the meeting.




Read more









9:27am: The Australian market poised to open lower following falls on Wall Street as optimism of a deal being reached on the US debt ceiling ebbed.




What you need2know:



• SPI futures down 15 points to 5,234.
  


• AUD fetching 95.11 US cents, 93.51 yen, 70.34 euro cents, 59.46 pence


• On Wall St, Nasdaq -0.6%, Dow Jones -0.9%, SP500 -0.7%


• In Europe, Eurostoxx +0.9%, FTSE100 +0.6%, CAC +0.8%, DAX +0.9%
  


• Spot gold up 0.7% to $US1281.67 an ounce


• Brent oil falls 1.3% to $US109.58 per barrel


• Iron ore is at $US133.60 per tonne



Making news today



• The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Indexes of Economic Activity report is due out.


• Iluka Resources is expected to release its quarterly report


• CSL and The Reject Shop have annual general meetings scheduled.



Read more




9:27am: Good morning. Welcome to the Markets Live blog for Wednesday.




Contributors: Max Mason, Jens Meyer, Luke Higgs




This blog is not intended as investment advice




BusinessDay with agencies














Advertisement













• 
  

  
  

  The US politicians must drink more Chinese Tea to facilitate their decision making constipation.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Doctor
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:43PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “US Senate leaders still in talks as debt limit imminent”

  
  

  !!! DUDE WHERE”S MY DEAL? !!!!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:38PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  SDL = 11.1% rally today on 59 million, no news is there this much inside trade. avg 33500 shares per trade @ 08.9c busy busy

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearShapedBull
  
  Location
  
  underground
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:35PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  @3.15pm post

  
  

  “They need to stay out of our politics,”

  
  

  Umm, pretty sure most of the world has its nose in Chinese politics. Mostly on more complex matters than the debt impasse – what is, effectively, a meaningless piece of paper to be signed.

  
  

  Also, it is clearly in Chinese national interest to care about their foreign bond holdings

  
  

  China’s criticism “almost sounds like a threat,”

  
  

  Hmmm, no I didnt hear a tinge of that. Unless being called stupid is a threat.

  
  

  “For them to say something derogatory about the Tea Party, I take offense to that.”

  
  

  Yes. The only sensible piece of commentary provided.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  igroki
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:31PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Someone’s got a black eye. Must’ve just come out of Congress. See:

  
  

  http://www.marketwatch.com/

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gordon Gekko
  
  Location
  
  Greg Coffey World
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:26PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Added to FMG shorts $5. Have been waiting for weeks. Gift. Pollyannas never learn.
  Commenter
  Allan
  Location
  Prahran
  Date and time
  October 11, 2013, 10:50AM

  
  

  Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-best-day-in-three-months-20131011-2vc5g.html#ixzz2hr6Ip4Jn

  
  

  Silly pollyannas! They never learn. How hard is it to tell a gift when you see one?!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Andrew137
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:21PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    He he… it’s got you worried.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:37PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  ..al..short the BOQ @11…you serious mate?or was that GA/wildlife/reals short?
  ….
  ……
  ……..till waiting

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  fan of allan
  
  Location
  
  @under pressure..
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:15PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    He he.. beats your long at $18.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:39PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hi nutbag.

    
    

    Not sure if the voices in your head will let this get through to you, but I am actually a separate entity to Allan.

    
    

    Hard to comprehend, but true all the same.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    wildlife photographer of the year
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:42PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  12 hours and counting.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Doomsday Clock.
  
  Location
  
  USA
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 3:00PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  US Futures still up .5%. Thy deal will be done!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  JC
  
  Location
  
  and the Sunshine Band
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:48PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I concur, please see my formula…
  1/x (Allan2e^x) Σβ(CBA, RIO, BHP)
  It works wonders…

  
  

  “short the NAB,WBC and ANZ asap”

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  allan’s formula
  
  Location
  
  love it…featured comment
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:46PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Bloomberg……”China Presses U.S. to Lift Debt Limit as Tea Party Says Butt Out”……..What a mess….Default is coming.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  JohnBB
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:45PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  @Essen…..”400,000 people aren’t changing the fate of the country.”……….

  
  

  Every year. I think Essen,that yes, it is. Profoundly and irreversibly. If you like the environment, GONE. If you want a fair go GONE, if you want your kids to have a fair go GONE. Were you being serious?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  JohnBB
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:37PM

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    ” If you like the environment, GONE”
    What are you talking about?
    It’s still the same number of people on the planet, no matter where they live. How does immigration affect the environment?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Irish Phil
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:32PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Australia overwhelmed by 1.8% population growth. How will they cope?”

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Irish Phil
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:38PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Jim Chanos said a few months back
  I am going to short FMG..
  Well it is up fifty per cent since or up a few per cent daily”

  
  

  Nope. He was short @ April 2012 when FMG was @$6.

  
  

  http://www.grantspub.com/files/presentations/James%20Chanos%20Spring%202012.pdf

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:35PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  CAC and DAX reached new 12 month highs last night. That Hopium is the good gear, should be more Armageddon scenarios more often.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  The Oracle
  
  Location
  
  2233
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:35PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Ed, can you please add some height to my Chart

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Support@4900
  
  Location
  
  ASX200
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:32PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Rogoff says that a bond default would be ‘‘catastrophic’’ to the global economy and that investors’ faith would be permanently shaken. ‘‘Their virginity will be lost.” I’ve heard these days one can auction their virginity online, perhaps that way the US would raise enough money to pay their debts…my starting bid…$1

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Auctioneer
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:31PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    America said bye bye to mother with a two fingered salute in 1776 and is still a virgin?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:07PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The way the ASX 200 has traded the last 18 months, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it RALLY should the US default. More stimulus? QE forever?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    geoff
    
    Location
    
    burraneer
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:07PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    forget him .. what does allan say will happen?..he he
    you can do it allan..legend!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party
    
    Location
    
    @maccas getting served by shorter allan
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:08PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    A very generous offer but are you sure you can raise as much as $1 for the US? Vendors can put way too high expectations on prices.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    NickHmmm
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:35PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    no banks you claimed to be working at maccas and now you claim Allan is. you’re confused Have a bex and a lie down.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Charlie
    
    Location
    
    @your boss at maccas
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:41PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Meh……Financial Armageddon is so passé.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  The Oracle
  
  Location
  
  2233
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:23PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  It appears L`le Joe is not very impressed with this current Yankee Doodle Show. Apparently it fails to represent the Fiscal CDF quality Beancounters have adhered to since Mr Mesopotamia invented Clay Tablet Accountancy.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Geronimo
  
  Location
  
  Yippee Yi Yo
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 2:04PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Holy moley is REA looking like a bubble chart or what?!?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  panda
  
  Location
  
  perth
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:52PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    LOL that was off my radar. Not any more. Short $40.63 avg.

    
    

    Sorry alfa/which bank/REM/Charlie/assorted nfi’s.

    
    

    ROFLMAO!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:21PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  http://www.environment.gov.au/carbon-tax-repeal/pubs/consultation-paper.pdf

  
  

  “The Government will not extend the carbon tax beyond 2013-14, even if the Parliament does not pass the carbon tax repeal bills until after July 2014″

  
  

  I am no expert, but how can this possibly be legal?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Jimmy
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:43PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It’s not legal but legislation by Press Release, similar to the FBT changes on cars taken out on Novated Leases, which has still to be formally undone. There would be a risk for companies that they would have to pay the tax if the legislation to remove the tax was never passed. Their auditors might insist that a contingent liability for the tax be included in their accounts if they had a reporting period and the legal standing of the tax was still uncertain. Labor would be quite right to scream blue murder over this because, if the situation were reversed, you can bet that the coalition would.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:44PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  THE PURPOSE OF MONEY IS TO BRING
  HAPPINESS TO MAN.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  click here
  
  Location
  
  read this allan
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:42PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The purpose of money is exchange and if I were you I would surely exchange my head…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Doctor
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:16PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The purpose of all caps is to shout out loud you have no etiquette.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:26PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    LOL! Post of the day!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:36PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    …everybody hurts al…sometimes al…la la la la la….alllllannnnnnnnnn…yeahhh
    hows that 100% record going??

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    REM
    
    Location
    
    all together now…
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:07PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    He he rem you’re so busy chasing allan you have no time to trade looooser!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Charlie
    
    Location
    
    @your boss at maccas
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I can see the frustration in alfs 50 daily posts to allan. Weekends must be hell for him.

  
  

  Do you see him when you’re soaping up in the shower? Do you feel him when you’re tracing lazy circles on your inner thighs before you fall asleep?

  
  

  alf, you should relieve the tension and express yourself, in front of all of us, on this blog. Tell allan how you really feel.

  
  

  You’ll feel better.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  crap 80s sitcom
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:42PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  If you cannot make money in the 150 point range of 5150 – 5300, then it must be said you have nfi

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Support@4900
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:37PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The 150 point range is boring and there is no trend here – the ASX is as likely to go 50 points against you the very next day due to Fairies and Unicorns being printed on Green Paper Notes.

    
    

    Trading a sure up or down the trend is the only sure way to get ahead. It went down, then up, now flat. Trade the next break up or down and watch a 400 point gap open up. Even with out any leverage – 10% gains over a month or two.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:16PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    sorry your royal highness!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Support@4900
    
    Location
    
    ASX200
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:28PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Just saying – no one is really making anything the last month!

    
    

    On another note: Think we can test the 4900 mark again soon?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:06PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  There are a lot of ppl on here who are so incredibly boring, just taking snipes at each other all day every day.
  A lot of ppl having a go at allan. he may have faults, but at least he posts links, figures, and trades.
  If u don’t agree with him that’s fine. But post something, anything to back up yr position.
  Otherwise yr just a numbskull or worse, and ideologue.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  J.
  
  Location
  
  Syd.
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:35PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Mate that’s just it, most of us are sick of his diatribe, constant BS and cut and pastes which are not really necessary for anyone with an IQ higher than 5. He really has the short man syndrome in my humble

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Hugo Hubris
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:16PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hugo – what? Agree but diatribe?

    
    

    PS: I have transferred trading monies back to my CFD account. Is XMAS coming early / or / are we going to have a rally up through Jan 2014? Who is betting!?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Any ideas on why FMG, AGO and the other iron ore miners have risen so dramatically in the past few days? Nothing about this seems to make sense…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  X
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:33PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Desperation… all I can think of.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:45PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Must be a short squeeze. You could only buy at these levels if you absolutely had to.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    geoff
    
    Location
    
    burraneer
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:37PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  just wondering if I can cancel all my shorts, mummy will not be happy with her little boy when she finds out the mess i am in…sob sob

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Laurel Hardy
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:32PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  why are the iron ore miners up so strongly over the past few weeks ?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  newbie
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:25PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hype and hope. No fundamental reason why companies already trading over 20P/E would go up… maybe there is a commodity price boom about to come along?!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:47PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Lib, where do you get P/E 20 from? Morningstar research gives PE of FMG at 7.6, MGX at 5.1. They are quite cheap at the moment eps Chinese economy recovering.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Ole
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:07PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I’m glad it is only the US threatening default. Could you imagine what the equity markets would be like if it was an important economy like Greece.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  colin
  
  Location
  
  melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:24PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    ) very good

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:57PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  !!!! DUDE WHERE’S MY DEAL !!!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Charlie
  
  Location
  
  @head in a hamburger
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:07PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Just bought PNA $1.905 for T/P of $1.945 today! Lets see how we go!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Captor
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:00PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “Debt Talks in Disarray as House Balks”

  
  

  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/16/us/politics/congress-budget-debate.html?_r=0

  
  

  What deal?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Charlie
  
  Location
  
  @Egg on face in maccas
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 1:00PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I read this forum often and I have made some fantastic trades from it. How you ask! I do the exact opposite of what most of the pundits here say they are doing.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Groundswell
  
  Location
  
  GC
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:54PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Sure, next you’ll be telling us about the trades you did last week.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:05PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    but how can you? nfi has 100% record, just ask him

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    FIGJAM
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:18PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I concur, please see my formula…

    
    

    1/x (Allan2e^x) Σβ(CBA, RIO, BHP)

    
    

    It works wonders…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:25PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yeah me too..just going long when a short is mentioned..its too easy.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    jack
    
    Location
    
    of all trades
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:37PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    What about 72% give or take a bit for all of 2013 so far? Haters be haters!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:42PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @ FIGJAM I thought it was Allan who had the100% record

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    jintana
    
    Location
    
    Thailand
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:08PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  how are you feeling allan? when are you going to bring me back to life?
  can i help you?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  GA (aka allan)
  
  Location
  
  @lost
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:53PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Awww…. you can go short too. Nobody’s stopping you alfa.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Alfa
    
    Location
    
    @Maccas
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:02PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    really, i never even knew they were both from the same circus he he silly old me!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    which bank?
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:05PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    How long have you had this fear of clowns?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Your doctor
    
    Location
    
    @doing a house call at maccas
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  US Futures up .46%, that is what we like to see.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Polly Anna
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:52PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “short the BOQ @11…asap!”
  he he

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  allan
  
  Location
  
  @worried
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:50PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Good bet seeing it was $7 a few months ago.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Alfa
    
    Location
    
    @Maccas
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:03PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Amid all this talk that shorters are losers – let me put some history into perspective.

  
  

  Just as a good stock can be depressed for a long time before its potential is realised, a poor stock can be overvalued for long periods before the price matches the company’s performance.

  
  

  Those of you who remember the glory days of the Nasdaq before the turn of the century will know this. Companies with anything to do with the Internet could float on a whim. The “E” in P/E was irrelevant because none of them had any. In fact, it was considered bad to have an “E” because that meant you were not investing enough! You could probably launch a successful IPO selling “I love Edward Snowden” badges online.

  
  

  Stories abound of luminaries like George Soros losing his shirt because he shorted these stocks – he was right on the fundamentals, but too early, it turned out. They continued to double and triple in the time and he closed out.

  
  

  Guess what – March 2000 came along and the fundamentals won. Therein lies the difference between going long or short, in one case your timing can be wrong and you just sit there and wait, in the other …..

  
  

  (Excuse the long essay)

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bud Fox
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:43PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Like the current ‘net’ based IPOs such as FB and soon to be Twitter. Both will collapse in a pile of ruined middle class investors. The big boys will already be out.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:55PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    If you go long and the company goes belly up you will never get your money back. Go short on fundamentals and you will be right more often than not. Pollyannas found out the hard way in 2009.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:57PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  keep plugging away allan, your bound to get one right sooner or later.
  lol…where are you renting again? remind us once again please.

  
  

  if you didn’t exist we would have to invent you allan…please never leave this forum.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  more allan please
  
  Location
  
  @loling
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:43PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    He he… fantasising about me is not healthy. I’m having fun, you should log off and go for a walk if it upsets you that much.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:49PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  All good in my view. The big end of town have too much at stake not to meet the deadline!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Support@4900
  
  Location
  
  ASX200
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:38PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    As the global response to the GFC showed, the big end of town will not lose no matter what happens. They will just shift their losses if there is a default on to the rest of us.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:48PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Not if they all line up the sell out of held stocks and short the entire free fall… only mums and dads will get smoked.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:56PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Liberator, that’s the second time today you have agreed with me. What’s wrong. Is this a new paradigm.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:12PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Mitch…oh no, not the new “P” word. Now they were fun times!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Julia Rudd
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:29PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Mitch – you sometimes get it right when it is not about Labor!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:46PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  NRT, out of TH

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bass
  
  Location
  
  iCloud
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:36PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I still think the US politicians will avoid the default, but am stunned at how casual the market is being , feels similar to just before Lehman collapsed , rally on hopes , and no one believing that a major investment house would be allowed to go under. Personally I am almost square risk a couple of tiny long positions but only about 10% of my normal size

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Chris
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:29PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  MNW up another 10% after 20% rally yesterday…turnover 14 million +, no price query, no news…..anyone know which floor to get off…40c,50c,100c..retire.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearShapedBull
  
  Location
  
  uphill
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:19PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    No floors left, close above 36c should see Blue Sky, be mindful of gap at 10c if 36c does not hold IMO

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bass
    
    Location
    
    iCloud
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:33PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I got this one two weeks ago and it hasnt slowed down since. I was wondering the same thing, where will it slow down. Or is it worth holding since its a good concept.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    tim_r
    
    Location
    
    Brisbane
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:45PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Good medium term hold I reckon.
    $2 within a couple of years is not out of the question, provided things mostly go to plan.

    
    

    Current target price on it is 45 cents though which we are approaching rapidly. I will probably sell down a bit around there.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Jimmy
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:57PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The Tory Rabbitt certainly lived up to his nickname of the “Mad Monk” yesterday. REPENT, REPENT, REPENT to Labor over the carbon tax. The use of such language is an absolutely certain way to rub the other side up the wrong way. That means a double dissolution is likely and all of the economic uncertainty we had in the lead-up to the last election will be revisited. A coalition win in a double dissolution is no certainty unless they have some substantial runs on the board but at the moment nothing is in the offing.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:17PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I am loving the run we are getting with FMG. Just finished my shift and having a few frothy tops. Cannot believe anyone would keep shorting this stock. Reminds me of the old question about how to do you get the cork back into a champagne bottle when you start the celebrations prematurely. I reckon Allan would be pretty good at getting the cork back in by now!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Pig Iron Bob
  
  Location
  
  Pilbara, WA
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:16PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    He he… you’re fascinated with me. Maybe if you had’ve shorted at over $10 in 2008 you would get it.

    
    

    It’s been in the $2 to $6 since it crashed.

    
    

    My trading is obviously making you feel insecure. Try to be confident in whatever you trade, short or long.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:33PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “President Barack Obama says the frantic stop-and-go effort in Congress to avoid a debt default and end a government shutdown is “a mess”.

  
  

  !!! NO DEAL REACHED !!!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  alfa
  
  Location
  
  charlie, bull, and 10 other nfi personalities
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:15PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    you ok allan? .. you seem agitated today.
    “short the banks”
    he he

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Charlie Aitken
    
    Location
    
    @winning .. again
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:35PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    allan .. everybody hurts ..sometimessssssss

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    REM
    
    Location
    
    REM
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:38PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    LOL 2 bites. SCORE!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Tea party house members sang ” Amazing Grace”. this morning before entering Congress. They see themselves as waging a war against tyranny where taxation is the tyrant. Their crusade is but another chapter being waged by the defeated Confederates. The last song they would ever sing is the Battle Hymn of the Republic which the democrats should sing in Congress.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bearly Gruntled
  
  Location
  
  Land of hot air
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:12PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Amazing Craze, how sweet the silence,
    Once we were open, now we are closed…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Choir boy
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:44PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    So are you saying that the USA should have a never ending, never allowed to be maxed out credit card? Are you saying that mountainous, horrific debts should be repaid be the issuance of even more mountainous, horrifiic debt, just so that the Wall St party can go on lining of pockets of the rich forever. Do you pay your debts with debts? Do you? Why should USA be allowed that privilege? Pointing blame at the Tea Party is the sign of a person who has been sold hook, line and sinker the lies of the mainstream media regarding this situation. It is about the Petro Dollar, Fractional Reserve Banking and THE PRIVATE BANK that enslaves Humanity, The Federal Reserve.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    The Seer
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:00PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The good times are back just that nobody has told you, yet

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Captain captain
  
  Location
  
  give us the news
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 12:04PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Short Japanese Nikkei. Storm heading towards Tokyo.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gordon Gekko
  
  Location
  
  Greg Coffey World
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:58AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    yes do it ..then short everything else on a major uptrend for a few bucks!
    he he

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    allan
    
    Location
    
    @sobbing
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:28PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Aww… alfa, you’re really, really upset with me aren’t you? Any trades lately? He he…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:50PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Ha! President Obama is a comedian of high calibre. He reckons that if those pesky Tea Party types would just go away and stop demanding a balanced budget then everything would be ok. Bloated Republicans and Democrats could just continue spending more than they earn, they could continue voting through unafforadable entitlements and Middle Eastern wars and tax cuts. We would just continue printing money and the American people would never know since the media is on the side of the politicians so we could just continue running punch-drunk blindfolded over the cliff…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Dr No
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:57AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Dr No. I like your style.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:14PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  What is happening at Kingsgate?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  bruiser
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:56AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Deal Reached – Raise the debt ceiling to 400 trillion trillion, crank up thoses press’ get the unemployed drying notes and trade in your wallets for wheelbrrows…..easy!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearSapedBull
  
  Location
  
  lalaland
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:54AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  This “Tea Party Republicans”, what the heck are they drinking? I say, stick to the good old English breakfast tea bags and for havens’ sake leave the dope alone…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Teaman
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:51AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  So last time the US agreed to increase the debt limit, gold stocks had a short term bounce. This time, gold stocks are likely to react in the opposite if the same occurs. Is there any logic? Even a US default appears to not support gold prices. Is there any scenario which would boost particularly KCN and NCM. Life is a carnival and I’m on the big dipper (wearing a clown uniform!!).

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  NickHmmm
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:49AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  short everything..asap!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  allan
  
  Location
  
  @sobbing
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:35AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    go long everything

    
    

    egg on face

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Charlie
    
    Location
    
    @nfi land
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:42AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Why?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Irish Phil
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:02PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    go sideways everything…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Market Guru
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:26PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @irish…b/c i said so and sooner or later even i have to get one right!!…i hope…dont i??

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    allan
    
    Location
    
    @lost and lonely in prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:37PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I am so angry at people who go short! It should be banned. BANNED I TELL YOU!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Charlie
    
    Location
    
    Buy buy buy always buy!
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:53PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  One thing that all of this uncertainty over the US debt ceiling has done is flush out the large sell orders in some of the stocks I am holding, EPX, EAL. Knowing that those sell orders are there and likely to sit as a buffer on a short-term price rise I have gotten out. Plenty of other buying opportunities out there.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:34AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Wonder how many of those FMG shorters are eating stop losses right now…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Rogue Trader
  
  Location
  
  Canberra
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:26AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Would have to be a few now! Some people trade shorts on a long duration… not a good way to trade if holding. Keep shorts – short! Always run a stop loss. Minimise trades to 2% risk of funds available. Even with 50/50 win / loss ratio – can return 25% p/a on a standard account (long or short btw).

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:50AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Allan’s right. It’s a good short. But I’m not sure if the timing’s right.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    
    Location
    
    Greg Coffey World
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:01PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Nope. A lot of my shorts over 3 months or more.

    
    

    In 2008 I shorted fmg at $10 and watched it go to $13. Six months later I closed at $2.30.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:20PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Dont think anyone with half a brain is willing to lose a fortune just to say I have shorted such n such.
    It is only talked about but NEVER done.
    Jim Chanos said a few months back
    I am going to short FMG..
    Well it is up fifty per cent since or up a few per cent daily.
    There goes his and other investors savings.
    Whereas anyone that went long is up fifty per cent in couple of months.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Tony
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:27PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Many successful shorts on fmg in the past say no.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:36PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The longest short I held was about 3 weeks. Saw the ASX200 fall 300 points. I have had a few shorts last about 25 seconds… minor losses big gains! The no-call longs are coming out thick and fast now – they still have no trades.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:44PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  shorters..nfi’s and gamblers…are you ready for it!?!

  
  

  love your work this morning work allan .. he he

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  TheBear
  
  Location
  
  @my maccas shift
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:26AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Isn’t it strange that the market responds to the US fiasco by going up…they forget that the whole debacle has to do with increasing the credit card limit ever more, to borrow more not because the US economy is productive, growing or competitive…Pathetic! If I would personally do the same with my own personal household budgets, my wife would ask for an immediate divorce and refer me to a Gambling Hotline for much needed assistance..

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:22AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    There is a world of difference between the way a household manages its budget and the way the budget for an economy as a whole is managed. For example, you don’t have a currency printing press in your basement. Not desirable, I know, but the consequences of not doing what it takes to stimulate an economy in trouble can be more painful and long-lasting than can be tolerated. The economy will actually end up in worse shape. Excess currency can be gradually withdrawn by rising interest rates and taxes from a healthy economy.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:45AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    cmon, if you havent worked out the difference between personal debt and national debt (with a unique currency ie not the Euro) —- stay out of the market full stop

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:46AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    All answered by Fiat’s comments further down the blog.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Opinion Only
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:16PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    You guys are missing the point…that is responsible spending, responsible budgeting, key work…responsible, whether from a personal or national perspective. If only the Americans would also understand that they wouldn’t be the laughing stock…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:21PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Finally people are starting to wake up to the fact there is no housing shortage”

  
  

  “An oversupply of inner-city apartments could see Melbourne underperform the other major capital cities in terms of house price rises over the next three years.”

  
  

  www.theage.com.au/victoria/city-glut-to-weigh-on-house-prices-20131015-2vktr.html#ixzz2hq73fCry

  
  

  Oh and there is no shortage in any of the major cities.

  
  

  “The so-called housing shortage, which has been used by the property industry as an excuse for Australia’s overpriced housing, has been exposed by the 2011 Census figures.

  
  

  The Census revealed that the number of households in Australia is some 1 million less than assumed by the National Housing Supply Council (NHSC) in its estimates of Australia’s housing shortage.”

  
  

  www.smh.com.au/business/housing-shortage-all-smoke-and-mirrors-20120622-20szh.html#ixzz2Ets81hEe

  
  

  “Australia is not suffering from a nationwide undersupply of housing, according to Rob Sindel, chief executive of building products group CSR.”

  
  

  http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/no-australia-wide-housing-shortage-csrs-ross-sindel/2012052154769

  
  

  “if the occupancy rate rose to 2.9 persons per household then more than 50,000 dwellings would no longer be required. Sydney’s current population growth rate demands roughly 20,000 new dwellings per year, so one impact of a theoretical increase of just 0.1 in Sydney’s occupancy rate would be that no additional dwellings would need to be constructed for two and a half years.”

  
  

  http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/mcu/soac/index.aspx

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:19AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hockey has said the young are sacrificed so prices remain high. Abbott said, while there are people that don’t want high prices there are many that do. Politics in this country cannot possibly get worse can it?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:40AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    How about I save some reading time, and presume the point of this post is :

    
    

    “Real Estate is overvalued”

    
    

    ah, so much easier

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:10PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Gold Coast – every 2nd unit add has the words “vendor accepting any and all offers” or slight variant. Must have read this same line 200 times last night while have a browse. Nothing units in nothing complexes with nothing views and nothing car parking… all selling at off the plan losses!

    
    

    The best one. “Vendor wants out ASAP – Must be sold before the 30th Oct no matter what!”.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:49PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Lib: Obviously cap. cities still in la-la land but is it possible GC is close to bottom? Some glam places look very tempting, but is there still room to get burnt?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Davo
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:01PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Not sure Davo. I am starting to see sub-penthouse units in almost new high rise buildings under the $500K mark. These are units I would consider worthy of living in. I think the rates at 5% have seen unit and home sales in the sub $500K range stabalise a little. Higher end is still falling and broken.

    
    

    There is a catch. I think any rise in rates will see property sales drop and prices with it. Even for example $350K units being 2 bed 2 bath 2 basement spots in relatively new complexes – I think they too can still fall… just my opinion.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:40PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  you ok allan?

  
  

  Democratic and Republican leaders in the US Senate could announce a deal late on Tuesday to extend the government’s borrowing authority until February 7 and quickly re-open federal agencies that have been closed since October 1, a Senate aide said.

  
  

  Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/fresh-hopes-of-us-debt-deal-20131016-2vlbd.html#ixzz2hq75IOtC

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  The Bull
  
  Location
  
  @winning
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:18AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Is the debt still there?

    
    

    Yep.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:26AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    is the end of the financial world close?
    no!…btw stop renting young nfi.
    he he

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    REM
    
    Location
    
    REM
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:44AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Renting? You really should have bought your own place by now.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Charlie
    
    Location
    
    @ronald mcdonald is my bff
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:23PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  !!!DEAL REACHED!!!!

  
  

  you were saying young nfi?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  DEAL REACH CLOSE!
  
  Location
  
  @loving it!
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:16AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Deal reached? what deal? to increase the already maxed-out credit card limit…and so insanity prevails and continues…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Max
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:30AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    !!!NO DEAL REACHED!!!!

    
    

    you were saying young nfi?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:39AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  We are in the very last stages of the entire west going broke. It was a lot of fun spending like Kings and Queens. In Australia, we have completely betrayed our own kids. They don’t even have political power, their vote is overwhelmed by 400000 new immigrants getting what they want. The young can’t even buy a fricken house. Propped up by, you guessed it, immigration. Well done Australia. You win the vote for the dumbest people on the planet.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  JohnBB
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 11:12AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    apathetic more loike, porse me a tinny moight stuff youse, Straya moight, noinee noine percent crackers
    Cheer up Chappy , or dollar is on the up and we then can escape once again to a civilized land
    I am going to have tea and biscuits with Angela Merkel

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    stuarth44
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:32AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    *sigh*

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:36AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “…dumbest people on the planet?” I totally disagree, I protest, I resent it…there’s always the Americans.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Max
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:37AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    What’s wrong with immigrants? Unless you are indigenous Australian then you can be traced back to immigrants.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Irish Phil
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:00PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    We all are immigrants. Our families migrated to Australia many many years ago. 400,000 people aren’t changing the fate of the country. What choice we had last month? Accept the loser as our leader… the only option was chose the biggest loser or second biggest loser.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Essen
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:15PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Irish Phil……..Don’t go there Irish Phil. It’s nothing to do with race, or immigrants. It’s numbers I’m talking about. I love multiculturalism, it’s one of the very best thing about Australia.. Do not fall in to the destructive BS big business has conned, scammed us with. The racist card, Not being allowed to discuss issues that need discussing. There are too many people in Australia competing for limited resources (does it occur that’s why cost of living is so high?). It doesn’t matter where from. Do not cloud what I’m saying and stick to the issue.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:17PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    There is a fundamental way I see Australia as opposed to the current immigrant’s view of what we deem an ‘opportunity’.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:27PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    limited resources?

    
    

    oh, wait does that cover real estate?

    
    

    …………..

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:29PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Essen……..What about all those other people on the table cloth ballot paper? The tow major parties are killing everything we love about this place.What about Stable Population Party? They got very few votes yet 73% of Australians see a growing population as one of our biggest problems. Like I said, dumbest people on the planet and we will get what we deserve quite soon.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:35PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @igroki..Of course it does. It also includes water, gas, electricity, parking, roads, tomatoes, places on the harbour on NYE.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:52PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Is there a country out there that has a more laissez faire economy than ours, encourages innovation, entrepreneurism, small business and is ‘capitalist’ in the truer sense of the word. Is there a country that doesn’t smother the desire to work by providing generous unemployment handouts, doesn’t steal more taxes off working citizens as their income increases, doesn’t give those taxes to government supported housing ponzi scheme specufestors, stops rent seeking in its tracks and is currently accepting migrants?

    
    

    I am sick of watching this country actively trying to destroy itself and I will not pick up the tab with my savings (that are currently being taxed and given to NG dole bludgers) when the SHTF!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    panda
    
    Location
    
    perth
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:29PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @JohnBB: Australia is one the biggest countries in the world. I’m pretty sure we can support a bigger population than 22m. Even little Ireland has 5m.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Irish Phil
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 3:34PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  LNC puts out good news rallies then its all forgotten as day traders play…..falls.Put out more good news another rally….if you can follow the cycle its a good one. Shame they are moving to SGX

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearShapedBull
  
  Location
  
  southwest
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:58AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The SGX move is purely aimed at diluting existing shareholders by issuing more securities

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:52AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Here is a snippet from a 30 year old’s Gen Rent commentary from another news source.

  
  

  “Eventually, the tax advantages of home ownership mean I will probably look to buy.”

  
  

  Go figure… that is home investment ownership.

  
  

  7x income to buy in – poor FHBs must be doing their heads in knowing that an investor owns property at a 30% discount!!!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Liberator
  
  Location
  
  SEQLD
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:58AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    40+ years ago, when I bought my first house, 7x income was the cost of the house. Nothing much has changed with the exception that interest rates on home loans are lower.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:24AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Or that 30% of new builds are bought by foreigners WHILE demand increases by 400000 immigrants a year. This country deserves what’s coming. Sadly people I love will be dragged along for the misery that’s imminent. People would be crazy to buy in this market. It is doomed. We do not have earning capacity as a country. We have spent the whole lot. We have sold everything worth selling. Wages will be falling very soon, followed by rents, followed by housing….BUT….Get ready for the criminals to bring in all sorts of tactics to hold it up for one last breath while get out.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:26AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I worry about you John.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:46AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Mitch. 7 times is not normal, is not sustainable and will change. ADD wages falling and house prices have a long way to come down. It is just a matter of time.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:51AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    You shouldn’t heybert. If it’s anyone you should be worried about, if you can’t see what I’m saying, is you. I’m very well prepared for what’s coming. Perhaps you could map out where the money’s going to come from instead of worrying about me. Go on, let me hear it. Where is a wage of 70k average coming from now we don’t own anything worth owning, mining’s finished, manufacturing’s long gone, house prices off the scale, living expenses over the top, highest personal debt in the world…Tell me Bert. Money, where from?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:22PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Mitch – you obviously bought one of the top tier non-mansion sized homes to be at 7x income in the 70s or thereabouts. Home prices in the 70s were roughly 2.5x income – ABS figures. Your 7x income house price was abnormal and just goes to show your the exception to all average rules.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:53PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Where it always came from and inflation will help too.
    Stop complaining and start saving for your kids.
    Or get left behind..
    Home prices will go up forever.
    If you spot a bargain help your kids make the purchase.
    Dont borrow big..instead save big first.
    Dont be an allan.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Greg S
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:05PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Mitch – Almost certainly not. It might have been 7 times your income at the time, but not 7 times median income. More like something around four time. Back then the main issue was a large deposit to make banks feel like giving you access to rationed credit.

    
    

    I’m pretty sure data for both the house prices and incomes could be dug out for that question at the ABS, but I can’t be arsed.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Oh_Mighty_Zeus
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:11PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Greg S. My EXACT point is where it’s always come from is now depleted. You are delusional. I’m filthy rich (Knowing when to buy, but far more importantly, when NOT to), and my concerns are for my country. Not me or my kids.. You don’t have the answers do you?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:35PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I’m more worried about the way you rant on here. Can I suggest, as you’re filthy rich, that you go out an enjoy it. Maybe move somewhere where you don’t think is going to implode. The stress is not good for you me old mucker.

    
    

    I have never said that things are bleak at the moment. The US are tying themselves up in knots.

    
    

    I’m sure you will tell us now that you are not stressed. Of course you’re not, you’re filthy rich. Twiggy has the same issues every day.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 2:21PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  CGP/CGPOA for a Short Term hold,

  
  

  SDL, go you good thing, 12.5c 1st target

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bass
  
  Location
  
  iCloud
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:53AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    regret so much selling it this morning @ 0.083

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    lolo
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:14AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Worth following Martin Rodgers FIW

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bass
    
    Location
    
    iCloud
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:15AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    lolo,

    
    

    12.5c, then 15c SDL IMO

    
    

    Might retrace 8.4/8.5

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bass
    
    Location
    
    iCloud
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:26AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Where and how?
    thanks

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    lolo
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:28AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Here comes CDY/CDYO

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bass
    
    Location
    
    iCloud
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:28AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    read anything about the golden child ESI lately BASS?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    tim_r
    
    Location
    
    Brisbane
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:29AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    tim, links his week, re;ESI

    
    

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-14/hunt-confident-latrobe-valley-on-track-to-cut/5020148

    
    

    Of interest from 3 minutes 44 seconds onwards.

    
    

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-14/the-environment-quarter-ep20/5021216?section=business

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bass
    
    Location
    
    iCloud
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:49AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    nothing has changed tim, just timing with fed election

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bass
    
    Location
    
    iCloud
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:51AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    good to know

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    tim_r
    
    Location
    
    Brisbane
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:48PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The US will not default, the debt ceiling will be increased, QE will continue, debt will be passed on to the taxpayers, stocks will go up, Wall St will continue to dominate, taxes for the wealthy will be decreased, low income earners will suffer, many services will be cut..we’re back baby, we’re back…God Bless America.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  The Market Baron
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:48AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Agree. The US is one screwed up country. Raising the debt ceiling is not a solution. It’s a short term bandaid. They just keep kicking the can down the road for the next person to try and fix their problems. They’ll never pay back their debt. And while they continue to spend more than they actually receive, the current problems will go on and on and on.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Savyinvester
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:22AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I think what will happen is Congress will just keep negotiating. There won’t be a decision or vote, and it could take time, perhaps a few days. Yes, this will mean a default, but it will be business as usual. Unchartered territory.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gordon Gekko
  
  Location
  
  Greg Coffey World
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:39AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Completely agree. I think they are too far apart and the deadline is too close for it to be sorted now.

    
    

    Too big too fail doesn’t work when it’s the Treasury of the largest economy in the world eh.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:50AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    R-tards, they wont “Default”. They control the currency. Stop smoking the media BS.
    The US, for all academic purposes defaulted when they went off the gold standard, and defaulted again when they were monitizing debt, hence destroying the purchasing power of the dollar.
    Get a clue.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bye Bye Fiat Money
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:35AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    My sincere apologies all-knowing BBFM. How nice it must be up in your ivory tower.

    
    

    You mug.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:48AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The choice to default is, for all purposes, political. It has nothing (in theory) to do with “running out of money”. The Fed can always print more dollars….
    If the politicians decide to default (they wont, although they might go into technical default ala 1979) it’ll be ugly, and mainly for themselves. See China (and the SCO – Shanghai Cooperation Organization) buying up lots of gold – default protection/hedging….

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bye Bye Fiat Money
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:13PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Well done to fitch ratings agency for the negative watch it has just placed on the united states AAA. It is about time the ratings agencies stripped the US of a couple of more notches which will happen rapidly when the us defaults on its debt later this week.The market is foolish if it thinks the tea party will moderate its stance.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Peppa Pig
  
  Location
  
  Richmond
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:31AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I’m starting to wonder if the looming and now quite possible debt default in the US is a deliberate plan to reduce their debt load as happened with Europe Greece, at the expense of the rest of the world. The Republicans, under whose rule much of the debt was run up due to Iraq, Afghanistan and the housing crisis that precipitated the GFC, would argue that much of their debt was run up defending the free world from terrorism and now it was time for the rest of the world to pay their part. Crazy thought I know but look who we are dealing with.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:31AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    For once you comment is not as silly as it reads. How have all excessive and non-payable sovereign debts been dealt with in the past? War, or, end up like Zimbabwe.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:41AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Well, back in the dim dark past Hitler ran up so much debt with the rest of Europe, financing autobahns armaments, to the point where no-one would lend to him anymore. He solved his debt problem by invading the creditor countries, seizing their gold reserves and sending the bankers off to his “holiday resorts”.. Fortunately the US’s creditor countries are a long way away from its borders.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:03AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    With all due respect, but Obama has taken on more debt than all the previous presidents put together. As foolish as Iraq and Afghanistan were, the stimulus monster that Congress put through was more expensive that both wars put together.

    
    

    The fact is that both the Republican and the Democrat parties are responsible, and the Tea Party is right in giving those bloated politicians hell at the moment.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dr No
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:09AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I think you may be giving the Tea Party types driving this thing far too much cognitive credit, Mitch. Their anticipation of likely effects of their actions is not their strong point.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Roger
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:11AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Roger, I don’t like calling anyone stupid, even when it’s blindingly obvious to all and sundry that they are. With the Tea Party I just like to think that there may be a method to their madness, or as Baldrick would say, “a cunning plan”.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:28AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yea right, blame the Tea Party for deficit spending and destroying the currency over 40 years, well done. Like balancing a budget is a hard thing. (No gold standard, no Triffen dilemma).

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bye Bye Fiat Money
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:38AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I’m not blaming the Tea Party for the deficit but for the damaging delay over coming to a deal to extend the credit limit and get the gov’t back to work. They have committed political suicide.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:10PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Add to fmg short, 5.35. Gift.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:26AM

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Do you really think everyone is dumb like yourself? Point 1 – you need money to trade and Point 2 – if all your calls are carried out you wouldn’t have any money.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Walter Mitty
    
    Location
    
    Bottom of the garden
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:03PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Dude you keep shorting Fmg weekly…
    Investors and traders know that you have never ever shorted in your life..
    Because if you did just once all your savings are gone…gone and never to return
    whereas if you went long once you would have made a dollar.
    You are only fooling yourself.
    In our office you have now become the daily laughing stock.
    Shorting and pretending to short are two different things. Both for losers though.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Sharna
    
    Location
    
    Sth melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:13PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    LOL looks like I’ve upset a couple of bulls. Get over it.

    
    

    Oh and check my previous closes when the market fell to 4700 recently.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:26PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Because if you did just once all your savings are gone.”

    
    

    Stop smoking the funny stuff in your tea break and you might make more sense.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 12:28PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The fact that markets haven’t tanked emboldens both political parties to stick to their guns. The debt limit will not be raised this week.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  geoff
  
  Location
  
  burraneer
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:24AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    … but the FED printing press will continue to make a few top heavies filthy rich… the peasants will have to pick up the tab.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:43AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  $17T and rising.

  
  

  He he… pollyannas think there’s no such thing as too much sugar.

  
  

  QE 1, 2, 3 have failed to lift the economy sufficiently to stem the multi trillion dollar budget deficits. They have managed to keep asset prices inflated which is really all the 1% is worried about.

  
  

  Unfortunately for them they aren’t going to be able to trade out of their debt crisis and maintain asset prices.

  
  

  No, the sky is not falling, but global asset prices will.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:12AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Gut feeling, is that, brown stuff going to go all over the place and the fan with be smeared with it! What happens when total national debt surpasses asset prices???

    
    

    PS: Typo from yesterday but comments closed on me: *5240 not *5340. That is for the obvious Spice Girl fans who come out yesterday.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:22AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Correct! Anybody who thinks that raising the debt ceiling is a solution is fooling themselves. Actually, a default would involve some short-term pain, but would be the best option long-term.

    
    

    Global asset prices need to come down. Two-bedroom apartments in Parramatta shouldn’t cost $600,000. Iron ore should not be at $130/tonne. And shopping centres should not be built in China if there are no customers shopping there.

    
    

    Oh, and the Federal Resere should not be printing money.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Dr No
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:27AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Said it all there Do No. Completely agree with everything you said. US needs massive systematic change in the way they do things. You can’t keep printing money, and can’t keep spending more than you receive. That is not a solution. It’s a short term bandaid.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Savyinvester
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:25AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Mornn’ All…anyone know when BPH will release theur quarterly production report??

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mirage
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:09AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    BHP released their report on 17th Oct last year, so most likely today or tomorrow I’d say.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Kingly
    
    Location
    
    Oz
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:17AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  NRT, mentioned 3 weeks ago, 60% up O/S,

  
  

  Big Pharma deal imminent,

  
  

  Toot Toot

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bass
  
  Location
  
  iCloud
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 10:03AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    it might help your position when you bought in at 40 cents in the beginning of the year.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    got brain
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:13AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    one day Got Brain, you can only wish hey, the market needs people like you lol

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bass
    
    Location
    
    iCloud
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:55AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    hehehe, too bad I’m the one who sold NRT to you @ 40cents. And how is SDL at 99 cents going ? and ESI at 10c ? HAHAHAHA

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    got brain
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:18AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Boehner’s plan said to be DOA. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/15/1247614/-Another-Boehner-Plan-B-bites-the-dust -Back to the Senate.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Roger
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 9:59AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Huge Broad losses for asx. I like it!
  Watch out next week.
  US Govt shut down..
  Debt limit coming…
  Enjoy!
  Commenter
  Allan
  Location
  Prahran
  Date and time
  October 04, 2013, 4:16PM

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 9:52AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    ha…nicely done.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:02AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    LOL! The ASX200 closed 4/10 @5208, below where we are now!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    
    Location
    
    The Real World
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:42AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    ..its the end of the world and al knows its…yeah yeah yeah allan knows it….but i feel fineeeeeeee

    
    

    he he

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    REM
    
    Location
    
    all together now
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:13AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    could you be anymore foolish?
    take a nap
    he he

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    egg on face
    
    Location
    
    again!
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:34AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    !!! NO DEAL REACHED !!!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Charlie
    
    Location
    
    Egg on face
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 11:54AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  US will almost certainly default now after GOP congressmen sabotage latest Senate plan to raise debt ceiling.

  
  

  Rating agency Fitch has US on ‘negative watch’ and look likely to downgrade.

  
  

  Anyone who is still in this market is CRAZY. Stop believing that we are dealing with rationale players here. The Tea Party Republicans are like Al Queda terrorists – quite happy to blow up the world economy in their effort to undermine Obama’s modest attempts to improve the US health system.

  
  

  SELL NOW.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  pumplechook
  
  Location
  
  waverton
  
  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 9:36AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Calling people crazy because they want to live within their means……..is CRAZY!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    geoff
    
    Location
    
    burraneer
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:17AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The US told the ratings agencies to pull their heads in 4 years ago. They failed to notify of the risks on the way up, now they are tongue tied by the US not to notify the risks down.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:36AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Actually Bin Laden was a furious capitalist which is probably why none of the planes were aimed at Wall St

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    colin
    
    Location
    
    melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 1:26PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  US debt default isn’t going to happen – the markets are surprisingly so very confident of that. But as a hypothetical exercise – how much do we think the ASX would drop day 1 if it did? Investor behaviour so far has been ‘buy on the dip’. My guess – 11%.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Yin or yang
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  October 16, 2013, 9:32AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    11%?!

    
    

    -8.3% was the largest one day fall during the GFC. 10/10/08 I think. Next was in the 6% range.

    
    

    So no, I don’t believe it would fall 11%.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:01AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    DOW dropped 22.6% on 19/10/1987 and ASX even more.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Yin or yang
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:05AM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    5% without a doubt. I could only hope the alerts come through on my mobile in time while I am asleep and still have time to log in!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Liberator
    
    Location
    
    SEQLD
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:25AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Ya, this is not even close. On day 1 the world does not fall apart…it’s as when payments are due. I agree with Lib. More like 5%…possibly a bit north of that.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:46AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Have some cash ready just in case there is a be a big drop. It may give us some great opportunities to buy.
    These TEA party guys can inflict more damage to the US than Bin Laden could ever dream of.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Mark
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:47AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    P.S. this is a foreseen event on the horizon….the market generally will be pricing the event as it approaches.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    heybert
    
    Location
    
    Sesame Street
    
    Date and time
    
    October 16, 2013, 10:48AM
    

  
  



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