Markets Live: Qantas at all-time low

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December 10, 2013 – 2:56PM

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Australian shares are struggling to hang onto gains, as another sell-off in QBE weighs on sentiment and ahead of a Chinese economic data dump.

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5:18pm: That’s all for today – thanks everyone for reading this blog and posting your comments.




Here’s the evening wrap of today’s session.









5:05pm: Industrials was the best-performing sector today up 0.7 per cent as Brambles added 4.9 per cent to $8.86 (after adjusting for the Recall spin-off).




The company lost approximately 10 per cent of its market capitalisation through the spin-off of document management business Recall Holdings, which jumped to $4.50 after debuting at $4.15.




Today’s other market debutant, Hotel Property Investments, a portfolio of Coles-operated pubs and bottle-shops, closed at $2.07 after making its launching at $2.08.




4:53pm: It was also a day to forget for QBE investors, with shares losing another 10 per cent, which took their two-day slide to around 30 per cent.




Here are the day’s main winners and losers:







Today’s biggest winners and losers among the top 200









4:44pm:Qantas has closed at its lowest level since its 1995 privatisation, continuing their downward spiral after the company’s profit warning last week.




The stock fell 3 per cent to 96.5 cents in Sydney, half a cent below its previous record low last June. It hit an all-time low of 95.5 cents during the session.




Qantas lost its investment-grade credit rating after the company said it would have negative free cash flow over the year to June, meaning it will need to increase debt or sell assets or new shares to pay for new equipment.




‘‘The market is of the view that they need to raise equity,’’ says Peter Esho, chief market analyst at Invast Financial Services. ‘‘Debt is probably a bit too high, which will need to be funded by selling something.’’









4:41pm: A slew of Chinese economic data has just been released, but it’s looking like there aren’t any nasty surprises:



• Industrial production (November): +10.0% yoy (+10.1% expected)


• Retail sales (November): +13.7% yoy (+13.1% expected)


• Fixed asset investment (November): +19.9% yoy (+20% expected)



The dollar hardly budged and is currently fetching 91.02 US cents, after trading in a narrow range all day.









4:23pm: The stock market has closed flat, as early gains faded in afternoon trade.




The benchmark SP/ASX200 slipped 0.8 of a point to 5143.6, while the broader All Ords lost 2.2 points to 5146.2.




Materials and financials both ended flat, while industrials gained 0.7 pe cent and consumer staples lost 0.4 per cent.




 









4:08pm: First-home buyers continue to struggle to enter the housing market even as it grows, as investors take on record levels of home loan borrowing.




First home buyer loan approvals fell to a new record low in Victoria while lifting slightly in NSW in October, the Bureau of Statistics reported today.




The overall value of home loans lifted by 4.1 per cent in October to $26.5 billion, driven by a strong rise in investor activity.




The value of loans for investors jumped 8.2 per cent for the month to reach $10.3 billion – the highest level on record. Owner-occupied loans grew by 1.7 per cent.




The lift in investor activity is a “significant step-up … worthy of further monitoring”, Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said, adding that the value of home loans to investors rose by an annualised pace of 47 per cent over the past six months.




Read more









4:00pm: The consumer watchdog has started legal proceedings against two large-scale egg producers accused of misleading consumers by falsely claiming their products were free range.




The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has filed federal court proceedings against Western Australia-based Snowdale Holdings and Pirovic Enterprises from New South Wales.




It’s alleged the companies marketed their eggs as ‘‘free range’’ and represented them as having been produced by hens who were farmed in conditions where they were able to move around freely. In reality, the ACCC said the hens were housed in crowded barns and unable to move around freely.




ACCC Commissioner Rod Sims said inaccurately labelling eggs as free range mislead consumers into paying higher prices.









3:50pm: As the markets slips into the red yet again, the more optimistic stock pickers of 2013 are still clinging to hopes of a Christmas rally, shrugging off three weeks of straight losses as the prospect of the US Federal Reserve changing its stimulus policy raises the appeal of riskier assets.




Many Australian equity strategists and stock brokers have been betting the benchmark SP/ASX 200 would climb to 5500 points by December 31, but so far the market has remained shy of that number, hitting 5441 points in late October before running out of steam.




“The market has been impacted by the call on cash positions due to the recent surge of IPOs now hitting the market, but given high cash weightings that should get absorbed allowing the market to rebound heading into the New Year,” says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management head of investment strategy Malcolm Wood, who has held a December 31 target of 5500 points since the start of this year.




Goldman Sachs stockbroker Richard Coppleson, who has had a year end target of 5600 points, maintains that the market could still get there, depending on what happens next week.




“We are very close to … seeing the Australian market in its strongest trading period of the year,” he told investors on Monday afternoon. “It’s [the market] been up at this time of year 27 out of the last 33 years – or over 80 per cent.




“This year, the strongest period begins (OFFICIALLY) from Monday 16th December 2013 to Wednesday 8th January 2014.”




Deutsche Bank equities strategist Tim Baker has a year end target of 5500 points and believes the market will get there as more investors realise that equities are looking cheaper than bonds.




“The equities earnings yield looks exceptionally attractive relative to nominal bond yields,” he said.




Here’s the whole article









3:30pm:Qantas has sunk to its lowest level since it was privatised in 1995 in the wake of its shock profit downgrade and subsequent downgrade to junk status last week.




Shares in Qantas reached 95.5 cents in late afternoon trading, down 4 per cent, taking the airline’s markets capitalisation to just $2.1 billion. Their previous intra-day low was 96 cents in June last year.




The share price hit an all-time high of $5.91 in October 2007.







Qantas shares in the past five years.









3:14pm: One out of Canberra: Treasurer Joe Hockey will hand down his mid-year budget review next Tuesday (MYEFO). It will update the federal government’s budget bottom line and economic forecasts.









3:04pm: Here’s a good one from the Fin (in case you missed): Morgan Stanley Australia chief executive Steve Harker has renewed alarm over the vigour with which investors are borrowing money in their self-managed super funds to buy property, saying it’s sowing the seeds of a future economic wreck.




In general, the investment banker says, low interest rates boost the appeal of real assets – such as property. However, he is deeply worried that Australia is sowing the seeds of its next financial crisis by allowing people to borrow money in their SMSFs in order to buy property.




“We have a tax system and culture that drives property investment in a way that can lead to its own strong risks”, he argues. “At present, people can take what amounts to a triple bet on property.




“They own their own home, which is capital gains tax free. They can also negatively gear investment properties to the point where it eliminates all income from other sources and now people can gear their self-managed super funds into property.




“It’s the third aspect of the triple bet that concerns me. I think the single biggest economic wreck – and one that will occur in this country in the next five to 10 years – will be in the SMSF space.”




The losses, he says, won’t be triggered by a collapse in the property prices, but by the proliferation of unviable property schemes that are now being peddled.




“The SMSF space is ripe for property spruikers and promoters, high-yield schemes and fraud. We’re talking about potentially $200 billion in superannuation savings being completely blown up. It will make Storm and Pyramid look like insignificant blips,” he says.




Here’s the whole story ($)









2:44pm:QBE’s status as Australia’s largest insurer is in danger – at least in terms of market capitalisation – as the sell-off in the wake of yesterday’s shock profit warning shows no signs of slowing.




Shares are currently down 11.5 per cent at $10.62, taking the two-day plunge to a whopping 31 per cent. The stock is now worth just $13 billion, from around $18.5 billion on Friday.




Sentiment hasn’t soured for IAG, though, which is up 1 per cent at $5.775, taking its market cap to $12 billion.




The shake-out of QBE longs has continued in earnest today and traders continue to ask ‘do I short (at these levels), do I go long now or wait until $10?’, IG’s Chris Weston notes.



• This $10 level is huge support on the daily chart, but it’s important to realise confidence in the stock from a bottom-up perspective has been shot to pieces and until the stock shows signs that the bulls are happy to support and stabilisation is seen – stay away.


• There could feasibly be one more (albeit more modest) shake-out, and from here it could be worth looking at long trades, if for nothing more than the upgrades that are likely from the investment banks, given the distance the stock would be from their recently revised twelve month price targets.



 









2:33pm:Brent crude is hovering above $US109 a barrel ahead of data from China (4.30pm) that may reaffirm signs of stabilising growth and fuel demand in the world’s second largest oil consumer.




The oil benchmark fell 2 per cent yesterday, its biggest percentage drop in six weeks, following weak economic data from Germany.




US crude futures for January delivery was at $US97.52 a barrel, up 18 cents, after its first decline in seven sessions on Monday.




Recent Chinese data put to rest fears about a hard landing for the economy, while government reforms are expected to support demand for commodities such as energy and metals, Mark Keenan, a commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Singapore says:



• Closer to the Brent market, the German data has highlighted a reasonably disjointed recovery within Europe.


• Hence, we saw a pretty strong move yesterday combined with the reduction in speculative activity on Brent-WTI spread.



Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in October while industrial output unexpectedly fell, signalling a mixed start to the fourth quarter for Europe’s biggest economy.









2:30pm: This week’s The Economist makes a well-argued case for much more spending on public works as much to head off looming asset bubbles in a world of cheap money as to generate growth, Michael Pascoe notes in today’s column:




The magazine’s leader, “More bricks, fewer bubbles” is taking particular aim at Europe and the US, but the core of the lesson applies just as well here.




The Economist is hardly a hotbed of socialist propaganda, but it suggests there are dangerous bubbles ahead if we rely on cheap money to stimulate market-led investment in new stock.




Despite all the rhetoric about the size of government, public spending is running at its lowest share of the Australian economy in at least half a century and quite possibly much longer.




While we’re relying on stronger housing prices to generate interest in building new dwellings, our investment in public housing continues to go nowhere since its GFC blip, as the accompanying graph from the latest Reserve Bank statement on monetary policy shows.








Building approval data from the ABS.









2:16pm:Remember HUB24? No reason why you should, really, apart from the fact that its fortunes have mimicked the broader market over the past few months.




It’s a microcap we pointed out to readers a while back, when we marvelled at the fact that it was able to raise funds via a placement at $1.30 – a decent premium to its share price at the time of $1.25. And demand was so strong it was able to upside the placement by 40 per cent.




Well, fast forward four months and the shares are down another 2.5 per cent at $1.19 this afternoon as market sentiment continues to deflate.









2:08pm:A move by one of Billabong’s major shareholders to oust several board members, including the chairman, has failed.




US investment firm Coastal Capital International, which holds a 7.6 per cent stake in the surfwear retailer, sought to remove chairman Ian Pollard and directors Howard Mowlem and Sally Pitkin at Tuesday’s annual general meeting.




But other shareholders voted against the move, as well as other proposals from Coastal Capital to restrict Billabong’s ability to enter into new debt arrangements and sell its assets or brands.




However, almost 34 per cent of shareholder votes went against Mr Pollard’s re-election to the Billabong board, an indication of their displeasure with the company’s recent performance and drawn out refinancing process.




Billabong made a $860 million loss in the 2012-13 financial year.




1:55pm:Commonwealth Bank of Australia has filled a major vacancy in its senior executive ranks, appointing rising star Kelly Bayer Rosmarin as its new institutional banking and markets chief.




Ms Bayer Rosmarin, who is currently CBA’s executive general manager of corporate banking solutions, will take over the post from Ian Saines, who announced in September that he would step down by the end of the year.




CBA chief Ian Narev said the bank had considered a range of internal and external candidates for the position.




“The appointment of Kelly, following the resignation of Ian Saines, is recognition of the importance Commonwealth Bank places on continuing to grow our institutional banking and markets business,” he said.







Kelly Bayer Rosmarin. Photo: Louise Kennerley









1:41pm: With a little over half the local trading day behind us, here’s how the rest of the region is performing:



• Nikkei: -0.3%


• Hang Seng: -0.4%


• Shanghai: -0.1%


• Taiwan: -0.2%


• South Korea:-0.3%


• Singapore: -0.2%


• New Zealand: -0.1%



1:19pm:For the first time in two and a half years the yield on the 10-year government bond has been higher than the dividend yield of the sharemarket, the AFR’s Phil Baker notes:




The yield on the Australian 10-year government bond rose to 4.43 per cent on Friday, before coming back slightly early this week to 4.39 per cent.




The sell-off in bank stocks over the past few weeks has pushed up the dividend yield on the bank stocks but the overall dividend yield of the SPASX 200 index is 4.42 per cent




The accompanying graph shows that since January 1970 the yield on the government bond is usually much higher than the dividend yield on the sharemarket.




But in the past few years when bond yields fell to all-time lows, as central banks went about printing money in an effort to get the US economy growing again, the yield on shares was higher.




If the US economy continues to recover and the Federal Reserve begin to taper their $US85 billion a month bond buying program, then bond yields could keep rising.




Here’s the full yarn ($)







Yields: shares v bonds.









12:59pm: After a 30 per cent-plus slump in its share price this year, casino operator Echo Entertainment has announced the restructuring of its lending arrangements.




The changes, which involve the closing out of some interest rate swap positions and lending restructuring, will cost Echo $22 million before tax.




Echo will spend $87 million servicing its debt this financial year, including restructuring costs, after spending $79.4 million last year. However, Echo estimates the restructuring will finance costs by $8 million in the 2015 financial year.




Echo’s share price has fallen 31.1 per cent in 2013, most of that come after losing out to James Packer’s Crown Entertainment in the battle to build a new casino at Sydney’s Barangaroo redevelopment.




Echo shares are down 1.3 per cent today at $2.3









12:42pm: Recall shares have started trading, debuting at $4.15 before immediately jumping 7 per cent to $4.41.




The Brambles spin-off, which generates about $850 million in revenue, has a market capitalisation of $1.4 billion. Its revenue is split across documents management services (75 per cent), secure destruction (15 per cent) and data protection (10 per cent).




Brambles shareholders receive one Recall share for every five Brambles share they own.









12:33pm: With $4 billion of debt, the prospect of negative cashflow for Newcrest Mining as gold falls to $A1350 an ounce, which is below its targeted cash breakeven price of $A1450/oz, this raises the prospects for an equity issue, UBS told clients today.




Newcrest “needs to re-shape its business to create a sustainable platform in a potentially weaker gold environment,” it told clients. Even though it could ride out a period of low gold prices, “this is unlikely to restore investor confidence.”




Newcrest has a number of mines – Bonikro, Hidden Valley Telfer – which contribute less than 10 per cent of gross earnings, but which account for a quarter of its capital spending, which could provide a quick fix. Even so, an equity raising to lower debt would be prudent.




“With global economic data generally upbeat and with no sign of inflation yet, the outlook for gold remains weak,” it said.




“An equity raising should be completed to lower debt,” it said. “Given current sentiment, a deeply discounted rights issue could be the best option.”









12:24pm: Here’s a bit more from the NAB business survey out this morning:




NAB’s economists continue to forecast an interest rate cut in May, with further easing by the Reserve Bank dependent on the strength of the labour market.




They forecast the unemployment rate to tick up to 6 per cent by the end of this year and rise to about 6.5 per cent by the end of next year. The jobless rate is expected to ease back to 6 per cent by late 2015.




Growth is forecast to reach 2.5 per cent for the financial year 2013-14 and 2.9 per cent for the following year.




There are no signs as yet that the non-mining sector is filling in the prospective mining investment gap, NAB economists Alan Oster, Rob Brooker and Tom Taylor write in their report:



• GDP growth of 2.3 per cent (in the third quarter) is not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.


• While growth should improve, it will be increasingly sourced from the capital-intensive minerals export sector, with employment growth to stay subdued and labour productivity continuing to grow strongly.








12:16pm: Here’s an interesting chart showing the wildly different fortunes of Australia’s two airlines, Qantas and Virgin, this year when compared to Kiwi carrier Air New Zealand.




Sure, Air NZ has a near-monopoly at home, and benefits from a higher credit rating (thanks to government ownership), but it’s still quite remarkable.




And yes, you’re seeing it correctly: Air NZ shares are up more than 40 per cent this year.







Flying different routes … Qantas (white), Virgin (red) and Air New Zealand (yellow).









12:07pm:QBE shares continue to be pounded following its shock profit downgrade, with a further $800 million wiped off the company’s market capitalisation today as several brokers cut their ratings on the insurer.




After a 22 per cent plunge in its share price on Monday in response to news it would make a US$250 million loss this year, pessimism towards Australia’s biggest global insurer is weighing further on its stock today, pulling it down another 6 per cent to $11.26. Its market capitalisation has fallen by $5 billion, or more than a quarter, since Friday.




The fall came as analysts at CIMB, Bell Potter and Macquarie all downgraded the company, amid predictions QBE may still be forced to reveal more bad news from its troubled US operations.




In a note to clients, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway said its position in America still looked ‘‘suspect.’’




Pittaway said he would not rule out the closure of part of its US business, and it was hard to see that QBE had a long-term advantage over its competitors in its Financial Services Partners portfolio, which includes its embattled mortgage insurance arm.




Another concern raised by QBE’s profit downgrade is its credit rating, which analysts say could be under threat due to a forecast increase in QBE’s leverage to 43 per cent, from 40 per cent.









11:59am:Foreign exchange traders have looked through the soft business conditions survey results for November, with the Australian dollar continuing to trade at its 90.90 US cents.




The currency fell slightly to 90.75 US cents about 10am, but has since returned to trading around 90.90 US cents.




Business confidence and conditions levels have been closely watched after sentiment jumped following the federal election in September.




But the NAB surveys for October and November have shown a fall-off in optimism. The Reserve Bank has said that a lower exchange rate is needed if other sectors of the economy, such as the export-oriented industries, are to help fill the gap left by a reduction in mining investment.









11:57am: Billabong’s new chief executive, Neil Fiske, says the surf and skate wear retailer will “have its work cut out” recovering from an $860 million loss last year.




But the company has an extraordinary opportunity over the next few months to lay the foundation for years of profit growth, Fiske told shareholders at the annual meeting in the Gold Coast.




Fiske outlined a seven-point turnaround plan which includes rebuilding the company’s global brands and sorting emerging brands, devaluing clear merchandising strategies, with fewer, better styles, and developing integrated marketing strategies for each region, underpinned by advanced customer relationship management and digital strategies.




Fiske says Billabong also needs to build new channels to market and significantly increase direct- to-consumer sales to 30 per cent of total sales within the next five years.




Fiske also flagged further restructuring of Billabongs supply chain, moving to fewer, bigger suppliers and gradually diversifying out of China.




Read more









11:46am: In further eco data out today, the number of home loans approved in October rose 1.0 per cent, matching expectations.




There were 52,305 approvals in the month, compared to 51,792 approvals in September. Total housing finance by value rose 4.1 per cent in October, seasonally adjusted, to $26.486 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.









11:36am:Air New Zealand has forecast a 20 per cent rise in pre-tax earnings for the first half as solid bookings in the lead up to the busy Christmas-New Year holiday period give it confidence to update investors.




As Qantas stares at pre-tax losses of up to $868 million this year, New Zealand’s flag carrier said it had ‘‘sufficient confidence’’ in its expected bookings this month to forecast a 20 per cent rise in earnings before tax for the six months to the end of December.




Despite the upbeat outlook, shares in Air New Zealand have dipped 1 cent to $1.49, while the airline’s Kiwi-listed shares have just been put into a trading halt after jumping 3 per cent.




The dual-listed airline’s pre-tax earnings forecast includes about $10 million in redundancy costs.




Air New Zealand, which is Virgin Australia’s largest shareholder, also said in its statement that it had ‘‘made good progress’’ so far this year, and remained on target to surpass its earnings last financial year.












Business conditions remain weak.




11:30am:Business conditions remain weak and firms’ confidence levels have edged lower, as improving trading conditions are offset by a weakening labour market.




Business conditions lifted slightly in November, from minus 4 to minus 3, as interest-sensitive sectors gain some ground while services industries such as wholesale and transport struggled, the National Australia Bank’s monthly survey showed.




“The slight improvement in business conditions reflected better profitability and trading conditions, which have been steadily improving since mid-year, although these were largely offset by a significant deterioration in employment conditions,” NAB said in a statement. “Nonetheless, each of these components remained below average levels.”




Firms’ sentiment slipped again after their election boost, falling from 6 points in October to 5 points in November. But questions continue about how long the recent lift in confidence would be sustained.




“The changed political environment, more accommodative monetary conditions and rising asset prices are helping confidence,” NAB added.









11:26am:Woodside shares are among the gainers today, rising 1.4 per cent to $37.91, after the energy giant halved its spending forecasts and narrowed its production targets.




The company said total estimated investment expenditure, for exploration and capital, for 2013 had decreased to $US1.1 billion from the previous guidance of $US2.3 billion.




Woodside said this was mainly due to the deferral of expected expenditure on its Leviathan project in Israel following a series of regulatory delays and joint venture hurdles.









11:22am: Electronics company Codan has been put into a trading halt, requesting the halt to provide an update on lower than forecast sales of gold detector products in November, which may have an impact on the profit guidance for the first half ending 31 December 2013.




“Lower than forecast sales of gold detector products into our three main African markets in the month of November may have an impact on the short term profitability of the company and the profit guidance for the first half ending 31 December 2013.




“This may be an explanation for recent trading in securities, however, the company is not actually aware as to why the recent trading in the securities has occurred.”




The company’s shares plunged 12 per cent yesterday, leading to a ‘please explain’ by the ASX.




 









11:18am: Recall Holdings chief executive Doug Pertz says storage of physical documents is alive and well in the internet age as the $2 billion document management business gets set for its first day of trading following its demerger from Brambles.




Atlanta-based Pertz, who was appointed to the top job in March, says the demerger is the right thing for both businesses and will allow Recall to focus on its different customer base and be more focused and agile.




He rejects concerns that the structural headwinds of digitisation are eroding the company’s business model, pointing out that storage of customer documents has been growing at a compound annual rate of 5 per cent over the last five years.




“The same question was being asked five and even 10 years ago. If you look at other paper related businesses like media or phone books, there’s a big difference. In those businesses, paper is a channel or medium of communication,” he told The Australian Financial Review.




Following a failed trade sale of Recall in 2012, global pallet giant Brambles decided to pursue spin-off of a business some analysts deemed non-core and a distraction to management.




The company, which generates about $850 million in revenue, will have a market value of about $2 billion when it lists today. Its revenue is split across documents management services (75 per cent), secure destruction (15 per cent) and data protection (10 per cent).









11:01am: The biggest business story on smh.com.au this morning is on the Mexican standoff between Woolies and Aldi over packaging:




Woolworths has stepped up pressure on rival Aldi to sign the grocery code of conduct, alleging the discount retailer’s private label products may be infringing on the intellectual property of leading national brands.




Under the code of conduct signed last month by Woolworths, Coles and the Australian Food Grocery Council, retailers and suppliers must respect intellectual property rights, including brand names, packaging designs and advertising.




Woolworths managing director of supermarkets Tjeerd Jegen has pointed to similarities between some of Aldi’s exclusive brands and national brands, including Bundaberg ginger beer, Procter Gamble’s Pantene shampoo, General Mills’s Old El Paso taco kits and Kellogg’s Special K.







Spot the difference: the similarity between the products’ packagin has upset Woolworths. Photo: Rob Homer









10:47am: CIMB has published its mildly optimistic 2014 forecast for the Australian equity market. Here’s a quick summary of its expectations and recommendations for next year:



• SP/ASX200 to rise by 6 per cent


• Market’s PE of 14.8x to decline by about 1 point.  Less Fed stimulus and a pick-up in earnings growth means we are likely to see some PE compression


• baton to be passed from defensives and consumer discretionaries to global cyclicals.


• Analysts expect JBH, CSL, WOW, RMD, BHP, MTS and ALL to see improving returns on invested capital.


• In contrast, they expect OZL, ILU, UGL, OZL, GFF and IMD to see declining returns on invested capital.


• earnings downgrades to find a floor








10:38am:The Australian dollar is trading close to its levels yesterday afternoon. The local currency fell to a low of 90.69 US cents late yesterday, but climbed slightly after that and was buying 91.08 US cents this morning.




The strength of the Australian dollar has been under a cloud amid speculation that a near-term Fed taper of its bond-buying program could be on the cards.




The president of the St Louis Federal Reserve said overnight that a “small taper” soon could be possible.




“If we taper soon, I actually think financial markets should be able to digest it,” Bullard said. “We would be tapering in response to stronger economic data and therefore I think markets can be a lot more comfortable with that.”









10:33am:Office landlord Dexus Property Group has upgraded its earnings guidance for the 2014 financial year, predicting 7 per cent growth.




Funds from operations guidance for 2014 have increased to 8.29 cents per stapled security from 8.15 cents, driven by the property company’s on-market security buy-back in August and September.




Dexus also credited the higher guidance to the net impact of Dexus’ investment in the Commonwealth Property Office Fund, in which it has a 14 per cent stake.




Dexus shares are up 1.2 per cent at $1.0275.




10:25am: Here’s a look at the top winners and losers in the ASX200, with QBE taking another beating after yesterday’s 22 per cent slump:







The biggest winners and losers this morning









10:22am: The big banks and miners are all performing strongly this morning:



• ANZ: +0.9% at $31.02


• CBA: +0.6% at $75.32


• NAB: +0.7% at $33.42


• Westpac: +1% at $31.39


• BHP: +1.1% at $37.16


• Rio: +0.4% at $66.78








10:14am: The local sharemarket has opened higher, taking its cues from another record finish of Wall Street’s SP500 overnight.




The benchmark SP/ASX200 index is up 17.5 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 5161.9, while the broader All Ords has gained 16.2 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 5164.6.




Among the sectors, materials are up 0.5 per cent and financials have gained 0.3 per cent, recovering from yesterday’s sell-off.









10:08am:Today is all about regional economic data and whether the ASX will react positively to it, IG’s Evan Lucas says:



• Japan is releasing its manufacturing index and tertiary industry activity. Australia is releasing its business confidence and home loans figures which is followed by the biggest mover of the region – China’s industrial production numbers, fixed asset investment change and retail sales.


• The ASX has been blowing in the wind over the past two weeks and this can be put down to corrections in NAB, ANZ and WBC. All have lost over 10% since their highs in October (yes they have turned ex-dividend, however they have wiped off over 100 points from the market in that time).


• If the ASX is to turn around its fortunes, the banks need to stem the bleeding and this change may begin on Thursday when the first set of dividend payments are returned to shareholders.


• The fact the ASX is behaving independently of the US, Japan and China is a concern as it suggest international and local investors are questioning company and country fundamentals rather than following global trends; on current trading behaviour the fundamentals are not stacking up.








10:03am:Woodside Petroleum has flagged a modest rise in output for 2014 to as much as 93 million barrels of oil equivalent as it benefits from recent project developments.




For 2013, Woodside said it now expects output of between 86-88 million barrels of oil equivalent. Earlier it indicated 2013 output would run at between 85-89 million barrels of oil equivalent.




At the same time, the delay in progressing its plan to invest in the Leviathan export gas project in Israel will cut 2013 investment outlays to an estimated $US1.1 billion from $US2.3 billion expected initially. Outlays for 2014 are expected to run at $US2-2.4 billion, it said.









10:02am: Several high-ranking Fed officials spoke overnight, once again hinting that a taper to the central bank’s asset purchases is nearing.




Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank and a noted policy hawk, hinted that there would be a discussion on tapering at the Fed’s December 17-18 meeting even though, in his view at least, GDP would be ‘’just a little above 2 per cent next year’’ with no imminent acceleration in employment growth likely.




Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard, who votes on policy this year and is considered less hawkish than Lacker, said the odds of tapering bond purchases have risen along with gains in the labour market, and any reduction should be modest to account for low inflation.




“A small taper might recognise labour-market improvement while still providing the committee the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014,” Bullard said in St Louis. “Should inflation not return toward target, the committee could pause tapering at subsequent meetings.”




And finally, Richard Fisher, voting member in 2014 and well-known policy hawk, stated that risks in continuing asset purchases now far outweighed any purported benefits. Unsurprisingly, he went on to add that the FOMC should begin tapering at the earliest opportunity.










10:00am: Some other stocks to watch this morning:



• Dexus has raised its profit guidance


• WesTrac buys Caterpillar Global Mining’s distribution and support businesses operations in north-eastern China for $US130 million.


• QBE cut to hod from buy at Bell Potter


• Mt Gibson cut to underperform by Credit Suisse








9:50am: In other company news, BHP Billiton has kept its production guidance unchanged, forecasting growth of 16 per cent in copper equivalent terms over the next two years.




Chief executive Andrew Mackenzie reiterated that the miner is  planning a 25 per cent cut in capital and exploration spending this financial year, while investment would fall again in 2014-15.




Mackenzie’s presentation came on the first day of a two-day investor briefing focusing on BHP’s growing petroleum business.




In slides released at the briefing, BHP said petroleum would account for almost a third of the production growth forecast across the group in the 2013-15 financial years, just behind iron ore with 37 per cent. Coal would contribute 19 per cent of growth, copper 10 per cent and other businesses just 2 per cent.




Iron ore is “tracking well” to deliver 13 per cent output growth this year, while metallurgical coal output is set to expand by 9 per cent, with thermal coal flat.




Read more









9:46am:Qantas boss Alan Joyce insists his languishing airline is not looking for a government bailout, unlike Australian car makers.




‘‘Qantas is not Holden,’’ he wrote in The Australian today.




Since being privatised in 1995, the airline had performed strongly without taxpayer subsidies or tax concessions. Nor had Qantas received preferential treatment on airport access or government travel.




‘‘Qantas is not seeking an anti-competitive handout or bailout,’’ Joyce said.




But there were actions the federal government could take right now and the airline was in discussions about them, he said.




The Qantas boss has said the airline is not operating in a free and fair market, citing Virgin Australia’s restructure in 2012 as a way of circumventing foreign ownership laws.









9:35am: In company news, Holden says no decision has been made on the future of its Australian operations with Holden managing director Mike Devereux rejecting speculation that the company has already decided to leave Australia.




”No decision has been made,” he told a Productivity Commission inquiry into taxpayer funding for the Australian car industry this morning.




Asked what Holden parent GM needed to stay in Australia, Devereux said that “the government has the information it needs to answer your question.”




The news will be little relief for thousands of Holden workers, who, over the past week, have read stories of alleged leaks from unnamed federal government sources and at least one unnamed senior General Motors official in the US asserting that a decision had already been taken internally to close Holden’s Australian manufacturing operations.




Meanwhile, the Australian is reporting that taxpayers are covering about $2500 of the cost of each Australian-made car with subsidies equivalent to as much as $50,000 for every employee directly involved in their manufacture.




Subsidies to the industry have averaged about $550 million a year for the past six years, not including the benefit of tariffs and the luxury car tax, according to the Productivity Commission









9:30am:US stocks edged higher overnight, with the SP 500 closing at a record high, as traders awaited more clues from the Federal Reserve on whether the US central bank would soon begin winding down its economic stimulus.




The Dow Jones rose 5.33 points or 0.03 percent, to finish at 16,025.53. The SP 500 gained 3.28 points or 0.18 per cent, to end at 1808.37, a record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite added 6.23 points or 0.15 per cent, to close at 4068.751.




Volume was light and the volatility index fell, signalling calm among traders. The Dow industrials traded within 43.11 points from session high to intraday low, in the Dow’s tightest daily range since August 17, 2012.




Speeches from a number of policymakers on Monday suggested that the Fed may be closer than previously thought to trimming its $US85 billion a month in bond purchases. The stimulus program has helped drive the US stock market’s rally this year.




A recent string of strong economic data, however, has removed some of the market’s anxiety about the eventual ending of the Fed’s quantitative easing program.




Economists expect the Fed to begin trimming its quantitative easing program in March, but some are warming up to the idea that it will do so as early as this month or at the January meeting. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will hold its final meeting of 2013 on December 17-18.




Read more




 







ASX200 v SP500 since the GFC









9:30am:Australian shares appear poised for a quiet open, following Monday’s QBE Insurance led sell-off, while Wall Street posted further gains.




What you need to know:



• SPI futures up 1 point to 5,144.


• AUD fetching 90.92 US cents, 93.89 yen, 66.25 euro cents, 55.39 pence


• On Wall St, SP500 +0.2%, Dow Jones +0.03%, Nasdaq +0.15%


• In Europe, Eurostoxx +0.3%, FTSE100 +0.1%, CAC +0.1%, DAX +0.3%


• Spot gold rises 0.5% to $US1235.11 an ounce


• Brent oil falls 1.5% to $US109.92 per barrel


• Iron ore gains 0.1% to $US139.40 per tonne



In economic news today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its October housing finance data and the National Australia Bank its monthly business survey for November.




In equities news, former Brambles division Recall is expected to list on the ASX, Woodside Petroleum has an investor update scheduled while Billabong International holds its annual general meeting on the Gold Coast.




Here’s this morning’s more detailed need2know




9:29am: Good morning. Welcome to the Markets Live blog for Tuesday.




Editors: Jens Meyer, Luke Higgs




This blog is not intended as investment advice




BusinessDay with agencies














Advertisement













• 
  

  
  

  I hold the faith, and am pleased by Tim Baker’s optimism.
  Tomorrow ?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Pierre
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 4:08PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Hi ED, been thinking (also been out in the sun for a while), how about a tipping comp based on where the market closes pre xmas. Early Dec days but given so many experts forecasted mid 5000′s and that December is ALWAYS good, I think your followers would love the challenge. No monetary rewards or prizes needed, but like the office footy tipping, a year of glory knowing YOU WERE RIGHT. Just a thought.

  
  

  ED: Not a bad idea, and one we’ve been thinking of. Problem is collating the tips. But we’ll have another think and send out a message tomorrow or Thursday. Keep in mind, the last day for the blog will be the Friday before Christmas, that’s the 20th.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  A Jones
  
  Location
  
  lost
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 4:00PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It would be better to have a small prize (maybe something from a Fairfax advertiser) for the “best trade” of the year. Not many people post trades on here but there’s plenty of waffle. We should try to improve the trade/waffle post ratio next year in my opinion lol

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:13PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Given there are no fundamentals at all, it’s just a guessing game…..but…I’m in… 4950. I won the footy tipping this year. I think the rigging’s far bigger in this game. Yeahaaa.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:24PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Or a vote/poll like other SMH articles

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    NSMR
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  comment @3.50pm. i would like some of the stuff that bloke is on who still thinks the ASX200 will reach 5600 this year. Maybe it will help my gout pain…clown!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Captor
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:57PM

  
  


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  You all know that I like the investment companies, particularly those with a W somewhere in their ASX code. Despite the troubles on the ASX the share prices of those companies are holding up even if the share prices of the companies that they invest in aren’t doing so well. Hopefully they can ride this fall out until normaility is restored.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:54PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Hopefully they can ride this fall out until normaility (sic) is restored.”

    
    

    David Tepper has averaged 28% per year since 1993. He doesn’t use the “buy and hold forever” or “Buy the Ws” techniques. He also hasn’t averaged 28% per year return to investors (net of fees) from dividend income lol

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:19PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Good luck.
    I hope you, the companies, myself, and all those who invest carefully also keep their head above water

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Pierre
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:31PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  For those into technical analysis — nice late day bullish trend channel forming on the ASX 200 mini — currently near the bottom with support at 5140 — went long at 5143.5 — top of the channel current around 5153 — very tight stop –= good for a punt with all the manufactured Chinese data coming out!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  jezza
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:53PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Just what is it that people want in Australia. They harped on and harangued government under Labor and the press attacked ministers on a daily basis.

  
  

  Now the same thing is happening to the Liberal government.

  
  

  Is the Australian population so spoilt these days that they want all their problems fixed on a daily basis. Astonishing such tunnel vision on both sides of politics.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Harry Rogers
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:43PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Harry, an Excellent comment, albeit a tad off topic for this forum. SPOILT with a ME attitude is my summation.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Pierre
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:17PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Is the Australian population so spoilt these days”

    
    

    Yes. We’re a rich country. Maybe this has contributed to the bad character traits in much of our population. There are incredible levels of self absorption and entitlement. There is huge disparity amongst much of the population between ambition and ability.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:23PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  As I pointed out yesterday we are now back where we were on election eve. The markets have obviously lost any faith that the new Liberal gov’t knows what it is doing or that it will be good for the economy. Too many political tricks and not enough policy, leadership vision.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:27PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Neither party have solutions mitch. We need these knuckle heads to get in a room and come up with bipartisan solutions.

    
    

    If it doesn’t happen, we go broke. There’s nothing more certain. It’s not going to happen while one party promises more than the other to win. Simple stuff.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:39PM
    

  
  


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  • 
    

    
    

    It is amazing to see the level of unrealistic expectations of a new government. As soon as they come into power they must transform the economy !!

    
    

    The reality is, it will take years of work and some sacrifice to correct the mess that Rudd and Gillard government created. The country will now pay the price for voting labour into power.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Commonman
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:52PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    At the last election I expected TA to be in for at least 9 years. However the odds on Shorten have begun to shorten. After all he only has to win by a short head. We should know after Joe’s MYEFO next Tuesday where Joe has drawn his lion. I always suspected he would have drawn a tabby and not the larger, noble feline. Will he bare his teeth and go for this nations jugular with the help of his pride or will he just meow and lick TA’s hand? The million dollar question will be whether not Joe can blame it on the ALP.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    bearly gruntled
    
    Location
    
    land of hot air
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:57PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  RE: Morgan Stanley Australia chief executive Steve Harker’s warning on investment property losses in Australia.

  
  

  The keys are education as well as appropriate SMSF regulation. Just read the comments on here. Many Australians can’t even comprehend the difference between owner occupied property (your own home) and investment property.

  
  

  So you have a situation where you have low to medium income low education people borrowing large amounts of money to invest in loss making investments that they don’t even understand. There’s a lot of tragedy out there.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gordon Akman
  
  Location
  
  Broadbeach
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:19PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  MYEFO is going to be thugly!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Captor
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:18PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  bought a small parcel of QBE @ $10.90, will add to if falls below $10.50. 6-12m hold.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  worried33
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:16PM

  
  
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    I will pray for you!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Devout
    
    Location
    
    Christian
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:55PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “borrowing money in their self-managed super funds to buy property, saying it’s sowing the seeds of a future economic wreck”

  
  

  Suddenly houses and holes don’t look so clever.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:13PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Wow, over 1 million share order @ $4.50 for REC (recall)

  
  

  My reading via Brambles guides was that it was worth a lot less than this.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  igroki
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:13PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Assuming equal valuation (false), BXB REC are worth about $7.70 each.

    
    

    I’m having an off day lol

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:36PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  What an absolute mess Rudd and Gillard has left us with. I am really peed off with the unaccountable spending that goes on with no thoughts about how they are going to pay for their grandiose plans. The affects are being felt by our Markets at this very moment. You can bet when the next cyclical term arrives for Labor it will be another taxing time for us. After the carbon and mining tax this time, what will it be next? No doubt they will think of something!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Captor
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:13PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    You ain’t seen nothing yet. Sloppy Joe has gotten rid of any spending restraints. Just like Howard the Libs will spend up big if it means sweetening their constituency.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:38PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Any reason why TSE has been hammered so badly the past few days?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Small Player
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:08PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Note to those seeking to list a company on the ASX, do not use a Q at the start of your company’s ASX code. It is just plain bad luck. QAN QBE also prove that airline and insurance stocks should be left to those looking for tax losses.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 3:03PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The banks look good compared to the rest of the scrapheap

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Er
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:59PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Anyone got a contact number for an export assistance program? How am I going to move this $5.5 billion worth of QBE bull meat?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  ASX
  
  Location
  
  Butcher
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:51PM

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Easy. Crush up what’s left of FGE and sell it as “iron enriched”

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    confused
    
    Location
    
    syd
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:01PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Add some turkey flavouring,dress it up a bit…..
    ps,anyone know when the santa rally starts? or is it the downhill race.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Mug Punters Lounge
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:07PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Santa obviously booked his flight on Qantas and insured the sleigh with QBE. He’s grounded at the North Pole until further notice.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:51PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Add to QAN long, 96c. Bye bye Alan Joyce. The job’s too big for you.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:50PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Well we may soon hear China purchase of Qantas, starting with a small percentage. It will be vertical integration of Chinese business, Hotels, Airlines and a little later key holiday destinations to entirely bypass Aus involvement.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Ronn
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:02PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    David Tepper has done great this year out of US airlines. I think your recent long position in QAN will probably work out good but the markets are different. In the US recent consolidation has resulted in three big players who aren’t killing each other on price at the moment. Whereas in Australia there still seems strong appetite for competing airlines/airline syndicates to kill each other on price.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:02PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  ASX will finish in the in Red.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  ASX Not Making Sense
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:48PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    AllOrds 3000 here we come!! Just like October 1987, short short short …LUV IT

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Assad
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:25PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  And down we go again. Pathetic.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Oracle
  
  Location
  
  2233
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:43PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @ Oracle, yes what a flippin joke!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Looking for Value
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:50PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Maybe we need to borrow more? Maybe cut “Emergency Level” interest rates again? Buy more bubble priced property to rent out for a pittance? They’re the keys to a strong innovative growing economy aren’t they?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Investing
    
    Location
    
    Guru
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:54PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Day traders/bots had their play now time to pack up and head to the bar….

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Pamplona
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:54PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Down Down prices are down .

    
    

    We need to put that advertisement on. Coles, we are looking at you haha

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    what is a bubble
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:07PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  QBE Market cap circa $13.25B
  IAG Market cap circa $11.95.
  QBE is global corporation, whereas IAG is pre-dominantly does business in Aus NZ with small presence in Asia.

  
  

  Wonder when IAG will overtake QBE’s market cap ?

  
  

  Who said Aus business environment is bleak.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Ronn
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:40PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Remember back a few years ago when all of the talk was that QBE was going to take-over IAG.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:55PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    QBE 3 year chart shows lows around $10 in December last 2 yrs so reflecting the lack of good news at this time,repeat….broken.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Mug Punters Lounge
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:10PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Remember a few years before the all conquering HIH?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:21PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Looks like the market has lost any enthusiasm to pull itself out of the red. My sympathies to those who bought stocks today that after the last few days, were looking cheap. On present indications they will probably be cheaper tomorrow.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:39PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I wouldn’t be surprised if you were right on this.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    what is a bubble
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:55PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I need a new hobby, nothing happening to keep me interested in the stock market – marbles would have been more stimulating in recent weeks!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  ASX Circus Clown
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:38PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Get a boat and enjoy the waterways around the Gold Coast. Lots of people with money enjoy chilling like that.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:58PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Just a quick question re: Qantas is AJ really all to blame? I think the answer is no, and I will tell you why. I happen to have a friend who worked for the business, a real life pilot. I have had the pleasure of several arguments with him over the past 2 years about part of AJ’s strategy with neither of us ever giving in. I don’t need to talk you through all the detail, if you would like to replicate the argument ask a unionised pilot about AJ trying to offshore jobs and await the barrage!

  
  

  You will hear how off-shoring jobs is a terrible idea (oh I don’t know, pilots have some pie in the sky idea that theirs is the only industry ever targeted for off-shoring), apparently it will lead to planes being flown by sub-standard pilots ( I truly believe that my friend thinks that Qantas pilots are somehow superior to those from across the pond), and this argument clearly means that given their exceptional skills they should be remunerated higher than pilots in similar positions with other airlines.

  
  

  Now, how does Qantas cope with this? Try to pass on the excess – baggage – cost to the end consumer? Will consumers not head for lower cost airlines? Ahhh bugger!

  
  

  To be honest I think that the sooner Qantas pilots come back down to earth – and that may mean applying for jobs elsewhere and realising how overpaid they have actually been – the better the business will be. Let them all re-apply in an international market and watch the fiasco!

  
  

  As I said, AJ aint innocent, but whoever follows him is going to have to deal with the same confrontational superiority complex that flows throughout the businesses cockpit.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Qantas
  
  Location
  
  Just a thought
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:35PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    FACT: A Qantas second officer earns same as majority of offshore captains, and works half the schedule
    FACT: A Qantas cabin crew earns three times the international standard, and works half the schedule.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Pistol Pete
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:20PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I’m a pilot in the Qantas group. My salary is $69k. Yes some of the guys in mainline are on great packages, but you’ll find those types of wages in all major airlines around the world. EK etc. Pilot’s wages are not the cause of the problems at QF. The company made close to a billion dollars profit in the 07/08 financial year. What’s changed since then? Not the wages.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Jay
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 4:27PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I thought our big 4 banks were indestructable, obviously not!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  AAA Rater
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:34PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    They’ve had a great run. Surely people don’t find it a hard concept to grasp that they won’t go up all the time or be the best performing market sector all the time.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Mr
    
    Location
    
    Obvious
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:39PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    heheh..tall poppy syndrome in this country does not help…..The REA @40 is not overvalued…nah…but the banks and their 28 billion worth of annual profits are way overvalued at $30, joke really.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:44PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Contrary to popular opinion, the big four are not rated AAA. They were downgraded because of their over exposure to residential mortgages and reliance on overseas funding.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Allan
    
    Location
    
    Prahran
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:49PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Now the Victorian and SA LNP governments are turning on Abbot because of the huge impact the collapse of the car industry would have on their economies. Well, why don’t you stick your hands in your pockets to make up the difference? Are you saying the population boom is straining your budgets because of the heavy demands It’s making on infrastructure? Oh dear, looks like Catch 22.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Catch 22
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:25PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  “For the first time in two and a half years the yield on the 10-year government bond has been higher than the dividend yield of the sharemarket”

  
  

  Yep, that’s because shares are 30% overpriced.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Allan
  
  Location
  
  Prahran
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:21PM

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    dude, higher price = lower yield.

    
    

    For bonds or shares

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:03PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    comment withdrawn, i didnt fully read the post

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:05PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I have been having a great run with WHC and am quietly confident it will continue the upward momentum. Bought in @$1.50, holding half my stake and taking the profits and re-investing the remaining 50%. Would love to see the aussie keep going south or alternatively a takeover/joint venture.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  ajay
  
  Location
  
  Tassie
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:13PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “am quietly confident it will continue the upward momentum.”

    
    

    Quietly confident but spruiking it in the national/international press lol

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Colin
    
    Location
    
    Carpenter
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:43PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Sorry I mentioned it lol, but a memorable first comment @Colin from Carpenter

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    ajay
    
    Location
    
    Tassie
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:25PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I feel sorry for Kelly Bayer Rosmarin at CBA a very competent leader who runs the risk of being perceived as a Plus One Pledge (to borrow an ANZ term) to increase females in leadership. Possitive discrimination can lead to negitive discrimination I guess, sad that companies feel the need to ask staff to possitively discriminate and give discredit to true leaders who earnt it and were not “pledged”.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Wwwish Lion
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:05PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I am not sure the ASX will recover from here, it could be the beginning of the end!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Skeptic Skase
  
  Location
  
  Spain
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:04PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  RE: “But in the past few years when bond yields fell to all-time lows, as central banks went about printing money in an effort to get the US economy growing again, the yield on shares was higher.”

  
  

  Exactly. Artificially low interest rates have caused asset mispricing in several asset classes around the world.

  
  

  What happens is the lower rates lead to increased lending and borrowing. Typically about two years after the peak in the lending/borrowing is when the defaults start to become material, accelerate, then lead to the failure of some lenders/borrowers.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Gordon Akman
  
  Location
  
  Broadbeach
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 2:03PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  PSY= day traders flavour of the week huh.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearShapedBull
  
  Location
  
  Mug Punters Lounge
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:56PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  DTE looked cheap at 0.10 so got onboard, prolly down from here on my latest buy trend…all -3% since last week cept CCU…but thats the market huh,so anyone watching DTE just wait coupla days and there’ll get cheaper.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearShapedBull
  
  Location
  
  Mug Punters Lounge
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:49PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Took my eye off IAG. Certainly not a dive like QBE but a decent drop nonetheless.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Wally
  
  Location
  
  Flynn
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:47PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  QBE sausages with bread and sauce $1. Enjoy!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Sausage
  
  Location
  
  Sizzle
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:30PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Ok we’re now having a “lows of the day” sale. QBE sausages with bread and sauce now only 75 cents. Enjoy!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Sausage
    
    Location
    
    Sizzle
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:32PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I cried tears of blood for Coles Woolworths
  when I read how they were at a disadvantage
  since they signed to be on the “LEVEL ”
  playing field. Nice change for the stand over merchants. Next thing you’ll know they will
  become good citizens and spread goodwill
  around the country. Don’t hold your breath.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  WEST Pest
  
  Location
  
  Lowood
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:19PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  NCM, is it cheap yet?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  green sheep
  
  Location
  
  are we there yet?
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:11PM

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It’s looking ok around these prices for a longer term hold but there’s better ways to play gold. At these prices you could play physical gold or an ETF to benefit from a rising gold price without the problems/risks associated with a miner. If you go with a gold miner you need to be thoughtful of any imminent capital raisings that could dilute/depress the share price. There’s better gold miner picks at current prices than NCM in my opinion.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:42PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    if they are going for fund raising with an equity issue there should be dilution so cheaper to come….see 1233 comment

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Mug Punters Lounge
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:54PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yes, but will it get cheaper yet, is the harder question. My judgement/guess is the price of gold still has one more significant kick downwards and the share prices of the gold miners have one more slip. I’ve sold half my gold shares and will re-enter at some lower point (or not at all).

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Yin or yang
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:13PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I would not be surprised if it went down to $5.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    what is a bubble
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:44PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Got in around $12, at $9 decided to cancel stop loss, now, decided to go down with the ship, all the way to receiver

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Bob
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:54PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Bob you’ll be ok in the long run. Lots of top hedge fund managers have between 2%-5% gold exposure. Hopefully most of your other positions are going good in the short to medium term.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    
    Location
    
    Broadbeach
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:09PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  problems started circa 1972…

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Captor
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:08PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  NZ home LVR’s only high for new construction. Guess what it’s done Abbott? Stimulated new builds. When will we do such clever things?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  JohnBB
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 1:07PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  aargghh stop loss only 3c away on ACR….come on brazil buy the stuff!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearShapedBull
  
  Location
  
  Pamplona
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 12:43PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Banks looking like they are making a comeback having been in my view oversold,in particular WBC looking strong

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Graham
  
  Location
  
  Adelaide
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 12:15PM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Australia spends 4.5 times as much on social security and welfare than education…..wonder where we are going wrong?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Wwwish Lion
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 12:12PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I would hazard a guess that one reason is that there are many more social welfare and pension recipients than schoolkids students. However if we spent more on the schoolkids to give them a better education we might not need to spend anywhere near as much on pensions and benefits as better-educated people would earn higher incomes, have more job prospects and take pride in being able to fund their own retirement. Benefits and pensions should be there as a safety net and not as a catch-all sieve. But then schoolkids don’t vote whereas welfare recipients do.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:49PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    No use spending money on education. There are no jobs being created. Just keep selling stuff, and borrowing big…. and spend the money….It’ll be okay for another decade, after that, like all the other boomers, I don’t care.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:02PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Well, the biggest component of the social security is age pensions. Perhaps we’re going wrong by supporting old folks? The next biggest is family payments. Perhaps we should just ensure that kids, should they not have to drop out of school to work and support their family, get a cracking new school building to attend?

    
    

    Or perhaps your comparison is just, well, not very meaningful.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Aaron
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:04PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    problems started circa 1972

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Captor
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:28PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Create more jobs so that people will not require benefits. Govt. wants to increase pension age but employers do not want to employ mature age people and in the end they give up looking for jobs.
    The only solution the dumb CEO’s know to increase profits for organization is to fire people , send jobs overseas and put more money in own pockts. The problem got severe when John Howard stopped spending on infrastruture and Education.
    The only solution pollies have is to sell assets to outsiders and balance the budget without bothering for the future. I do not know what are we going to do when we will have nothing left to sell. We have a very bleak future.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    xyz
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:39PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Aaron you are right Assistance to the aged is the largest single component (~38%). So lets exclude that and say we spent 2.8 times more on welfare than education…Do you feel better now?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Wwwish Lion
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:58PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Captor well Whitlam may have expanded the range of benefits and benefit recipients however it was always open to successive LNP gov’ts to cut them back. It did not altho they did their best to discourage people from being recipients by making the number of hoops to be jumped thru almost endless and the cash amounts nowhere near sufficient and the review processes oppressive. However the Howard gov’t showed itself to be particularly mean. They would rather build up a fat surplus by amongst other things, allowing the single age-pension to fall to below poverty levels. One of the first things Rudd had to do in 2007 was to increase that pension by $13pw, a record.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:07PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Ita a welfare state, not cradle to the grave stuff like the boomers years but none the less we need to tip things a little to training and forward thinking. Ramember families need a helping hand as well as sickness benefit,disability,unemployed etc. its a compassionate system which tries to help in many different ways.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Pamplona
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:42PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @Mitch they are still demolishing blocks of public housing units around Australia built in the Whitlam era. Throwing money around does not and never will solve the real problems of the world! I agree with protecting the vulnerable people of the world but socialist Govt’s have to be tougher with the malingerers who sadly outnumber the needy

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Captor
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:46PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  It looks like MMS is sharing in the joy that the rest of us feel in having a Liberal Gov’t. It’s down 51c so far today. With friends like that who needs enemies.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  mitch of ACT
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 12:03PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    and where did the problems start for MMS?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Captor
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:21PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    MMS should only be allowed to deal with Australian built cars.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    bearly gruntled
    
    Location
    
    land of hot air
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:17PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    MMS’s problems started in using a business model that relied on a tax rort. Many of those have been closed down over the years on Treasury’s recommendations. The over-use of primary production concessions is a good example. MMS was just the latest one and I expect Abbott’s razor gang will make the same recommendation.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:21PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    wrong @Mitch, you know it started with the proposed legislation change by the previous Govt, I am sure the punters that lost 50% of there share price would agree with that. I agree with what you say to some extent @bg, but I doubt many punters would be interested then!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Captor
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:43PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Looks like banks have turned the corner

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Fan of Allan
  
  Location
  
  Shotland Street
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 12:00PM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    nope.sorry. ill let you know when they do.
    bears have control of banks.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:49PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  down she goes…..

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Fan of Allan
  
  Location
  
  Shortland Street
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 11:38AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  One of the guys who won the Nobel prize there could be a global recession in 2014. Interesting to see if this happens or not. Could rising unemployment in the future make our housing bubble go pop? Lets hear your view everyone

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  What is a bubble
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 11:27AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Was it the same guy who championed the efficient market hypothesis? One of the dumbest theories on economics Ive ever heard. Guess they’ve gotta do something to justify their time.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    igroki
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:09PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  RE 11:01: Coles Woolies pressuring ALDI METCASH into signing the grocery code of conduct to create “a level playing field”.

  
  

  More like 2 giant wolves in sheep’s clothing preparing to hit them both hard and forcing them stop selling the majority of their products.

  
  

  ALDI METCASH are not stupid, they know as soon as they sign something like this, the 2 bullies are going to hit their sales hard by taking legal action on many of the products they sell.

  
  

  Nice try Coles Woolies… “ooooh I just don’t understand why they wouldn’t sign… it will give them the level playing field they want”….. YEAH RIGHT!!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  GS
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 11:27AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Thanks to Aldi’s German parent company, Aldi could use Coles Woolies as filling for its Tacos. I have an Aldi a Woolies store in close proximity. 95% of my grocery $ is spent at Aldi. When I wheel my trolley out of Aldi I no longer have that “ripped-off” feeling that I used to get from shopping at Woolies. Aldi’s prices for exactly the same products, eg bananas, are often 50% less than Woolies.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:11PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    My sentiments exactly. Woolworths want to be a bit careful of what they are taking on. I have seen Aldi taking on big supermarket chains in Europe, and basically ripped the guts out of them. Now Aldi is a very smart operator and do not want to see anybody hurt, but, but …

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Citronen
    
    Location
    
    Sydney
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:49PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    aldi doing good job. i buy a lot of stuff from aldi now. they charge a lot less, esp for fruit. Banana today $2 a kg, 20% discount from woolies $2.50 a kg.

    
    

    but locations wise, aldi is not convenient for the vast majority of population. a lot of the good locations are taken by coles and woolies.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    nihal bhat
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 2:47PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  There is a whiff of panic about the QBE price.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Peter
  
  Location
  
  Sunbury
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 11:24AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  @ 10.47 comment, yea but is that floor the basement.QBE still getting smashed,QAN hover at 1.00 with nothing positive to lift,maybe thats why so many companies took till the last couple of days reporting season to dump their load.
  Morningstar saying we should look to resources not banks to drive the market into the black,well i guess with the currency devalued our resources will make more $ on the US priced market.So back to China as a lead the mining booms over right? Things going to planned we should see LNG boost 2014/2015 when these huge new projects start producing so energy stocks should be a good hedge.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  BearShapedBull
  
  Location
  
  The Buffet Car
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 11:01AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I am puzzled, someone said they bought back into QBE, Yesterday at 12.25, now why would anyone do that? it has missed profit estimates every year since 09
    I did buy in at 9, and amassed 10000 til they were north 14, sold and then like a Fool went back in about a year back, but soon bailed I ended up square after being up 9k
    Never ever agin’

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    stu
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:28AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I brought into the financials about 3 years ago and rode them up.

    
    

    Sold QBE early this year around the $12 mark. Was annoyed as they rolled on upwards to the $14 mark thinking I’d made an error.

    
    

    I sold because I thought they were over-valued and their profit expectations were based on them competing in the US market, something continued profit in the insurance market is not guaranteed.

    
    

    I feel a little better about that decision in recent days.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Joe the POM
    
    Location
    
    Geelong
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:03PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    and people tell me NCM management is dud

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mushy
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:04PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yes, I posted yesterday in reply to that person’s post that I expected QBE to be sold off again today. Buying in on the day of a big profit downgrade is never a smart thing to do because there always seems to be a second wave of selling that occurs after the first day. There are those who did not sell into the first drop and are now getting out at any price and those who bought into the first drop in anticipation of a rebound, so that they can sell for a very quick profit, who have had the rug pulled out from under them by the second day’s drop. Out they go to cut their losses.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:19PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Yet again a company appears to have a “leakage” of information before the market is advised. Codan (CDA) got a speeding ticket (downwards) and promptly went into a trading halt. They advised on the response to the speeding ticket.
  “Lower than forecast sales of gold detector products into our three main African markets in the month of November may have an impact on the short term profitability of the company and the profit guidance for the first half ending 31 December 2013. This may be an explanation for recent trading in securities, however, the Company is not actually aware as to why the recent trading in the securities has occurred.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  NSMR
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:59AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    thats a reversing ticket.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Pamplona
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:24AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “The company is not aware” is the corporate equivalent of “I have no memory of”. If companies were honest they would instigate investigations, trouble is they always know where the end of the trail is.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Peter
    
    Location
    
    Sunbury
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:28AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    “Insider trading” shouldn’t be illegal. The only reason it is illegal is so that speculators who gamble in the market and have no idea what there doing can have a somewhat level playing field with those that do.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Ryan
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:23PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    @ Ryan ……… Not even sure that makes any sense whatsoever

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    NSMR
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:54PM
    

  
  


• 
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Ryan, you get the prize for the comment of the day.

    
    

    What are on?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 3:19PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The FBT rort (which only benefits imported European car makers and high income earners – e.g. if you need a sports Mercedes – more high income welfare) costs more than the Holden subsidy. Better even to pay Holden Toyota directly a $ 5k subsidy and remove the FBT rort. So its ok to subsidize high income earners?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Strange Economics – car benefits for high incomes
  
  Location
  
  Melbourne
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:47AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    High Income Earners pay more tax than low income earners … Simples.. Help me out Alan.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Sullys Foot is Down
    
    Location
    
    South Freo
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:07AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Hey
    Just for clarification it is a PAYG tax rort not an FBT tax rort because you salary sacrifice the novated lease via your PAYG salary i.e. less tax however the company you work for gets an FBT bill anyway which is dependent on Kilometers booked.
    The only spurious case is if the novated leasee is high enough in the company food chain to allow the FBT to be paid instead of PAYG personal tax.
    Thanks

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    I told you so
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:14AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Why not make the FBT discount only for Australian made cars? This will create a double bonus of supporting only Australian made car production, and non subsidising foreign cars for rich pricks.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    FBT rort
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:27AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I’m with you Sully, I’m sick of people who pay little or no tax telling me I am subsidised.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Wwwish Lion
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:54AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I and hundreds of thousands of others like me pay no tax on very good incomes, thanks to the wonderful financial management skills of Howard Costello (deep sarcasm). Votes bought in that way are very, very expensive and generally a waste of money. Why would I vote for a party that believes my vote can be bought rather than earned.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:26PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The taxpayer is currently paying each employee at Holden around $50,000 per year to keep them employed. Then we have the wise men in Australia saying that every car in the world is subsidised. This is true for cars manufactured in USA, France and Italy, but certainly not true for cars from Germany. All car companies in Germany are running at strong profits. In particular BMW, Mercedes, Audi and VW, but even Porsche makes good profits as well.

  
  

  There is no need for the German government to subsidise companies which each in their chosen niche are all world class and world leaders.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Viking
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:41AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    German cars with a pedrigee on a world market,Holden just Aust/NZ no comparison really.
    German wages frozen for last 4 yrs so other EU members catch up, parts outsourced to Pland/India manufacturing,no one haggles over costs more than germans. If we subsidise the workers wages by 50000k, the returns in taxaton/spending in the community all point back to local cashflow,not suh a bad thing. What do we gain from buying inported vechicles…nada,maybe satus.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    The Buffet Car
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:08AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Germany doesn’t directly subsidise its car industry, but as part of the Euro block, its currency is artificially suppressed. As with all German manufacturing, this means that German cars are sold internationally without the price premium that is normally associated with high quality production. So it is the rest of the Euro countries that are supporting Germany’s car industry! Australia has a high currency because of an overheated mining industry. If the government taxed the super profits properly it could actually afford to subsidise industries like car production for short term protection from non-competitive terms of trade in Australia.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Euro skeptic
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:25AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Even better – the Australian govt subsidizes luxury imports $ 200million per year with the FBT rort – instead of 47 % tax pay 20% FBT rate on your $ 100K luxury car lease. Save $6k year (check on any car leasing website for details). If you have the high enough income you can take this on. If you don’t have the cash flow bad luck. Upper income welfare, along with negative gearing billions per year. Can’t cut that back.

    
    

    While thinking of removing subsidies why not remove those hundreds of millions to Banks – they won’t leave the country.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Strange Economics – car benefits for high incomes
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:39PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Thanks for all the advice yesterday…buy Ausenco (AAX) @ 0.645. Wish me luck!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Long Buffett
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:34AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    lot of buying lined up @ 0.63, well good luck.
    take note that the divd yield to drop significantly in 2013/2014 expect 2.0c per share down to 0.4c per share.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    BearShapedBull
    
    Location
    
    Pamplona
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:17AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    thanks #BSB, got in at 0.64, but now down to 0.62 – could be a Mitch effect operating lol…

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Long Buffett
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:12PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Always make your first buy-in a small one and wait for the price drop. That Mitch effect can be relied on to drop the price as my very long trading history shows.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:51PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  BHP- Spending cuts. one word. JIMBLEBAR MINE. whit elephant.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Sullys Foot is Down
  
  Location
  
  South Freo
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:30AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Loud noises about cost cutting is more about iron ore price currently flatlining, combined with increasing iron ore supply far exceeding China demand forecasts, perhaps?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Staz
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:12AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  One IPO that is holding up well, in spite of all the tech bubble talk, is Twitter (NYSE:TWTR).

  
  

  It set a new high overnight at 49.14. Five days ago it was 41 – nice ride. This is sure to start more bubble discussions in the press. Maybe some short squeezing is happening?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bud Fox
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:27AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Alan Joyce,

  
  

  ‘‘Qantas is not Holden,’’ he wrote in The Australian today.

  
  

  Since being privatised in 1995, the airline had performed strongly without taxpayer subsidies or tax concessions.

  
  

  Nor had Qantas received preferential treatment on airport access or government travel.

  
  

  ‘‘Qantas is not seeking an anti-competitive handout or bailout,’’ Joyce said.

  
  

  All true Mr Joyce, but you are legally permitted to rip off your localised clientele aren’t you?

  
  

  Flying the same route at any time of the year from Australia to Anywhere is always 30% minimum more expensive than flying to Australia from the same destination on a return basis.

  
  

  That is preferential treatment and permitted to you at the approval of OUR government via its monitor the always asleep at the wheel ACCC.

  
  

  Additionally the market in and out of some of the smaller ‘regional’ airports is managed to subsidise the rest of your network, Canberra is a classic example I know of personally.

  
  

  So don’t cry poor, do your job and compete properly and the market might reward you. Get your staff used to hard work and making money, and the future might be a little brighter.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Joe the POM
  
  Location
  
  Geelong
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:23AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    So you work out that only QF is 30% percent higher?

    
    

    Here, have a look at this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/australians-pay-double-for-flights-20121208-2b28q.html

    
    

    “That is preferential treatment and permitted to you at the approval of OUR government via its monitor the always asleep at the wheel ACCC” – how is it preferential treatment when it applies to all airlines that fly to and out of our country ?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    got brain
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:00AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    It is preferential even if some other none Australian corporations operate with benefit.

    
    

    Let us be honest here, 50% of Qantas’ international business involves flying out of Australia. Not many other carriers can say that now can they? (Virgin Australia is the other exception).

    
    

    So it is a weighted advantage to Qantas.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Joe the POM
    
    Location
    
    Geelong
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:58AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Anyone see the new Qantas uniforms. Grose, and what’s with the Fred Krueger hats ?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Oracle
    
    Location
    
    2233
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:21PM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    oh, didn’t realise you were purely looking at market share and not profit.

    
    

    Then yes, your statement is correct.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    got brain
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 1:45PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  I’m an ex holder of Codan Ltd (CDA). 12% plunge in share price yesterday with no announcement. ASX ‘please explain’ today and trading halt – imminent downgrade in earnings guidance. Obviously insider trading. ASIC, come on!

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Yin or yang
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:23AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Yes indeed – they don’t come more obvious than this one do they. Wouldn’t hold you breath, i got screwed with OZL last year.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Peter
    
    Location
    
    Sunbury
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:05AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    On this has any ordinary shareholder of a company (eg who posts on here) complained to ASIC about similar occurrences? Did you get a response ?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    NSMR
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:09AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Oh darn that’s another of Motley’s recommendations

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    stu
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:44AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    I have sent letters off to ASIC pointing out irregular trading and instances of all too obvious insider trading. Of the 8 or so recent referrals I have made to ASIC NOTHING HAPPENED. All I got was a form letter on each occasion thanking me for my letter but saying that they could not disclose details of confidential enquiries, or words to that effect. So now I send copies of my letters to some finance journalists I know as leads for possible articles and to the office of the Shadow Treasurer for use in embarrassing ASIC in Senate Estimates.
    Check out recent trading in SWE, now in a Trading Halt, pending information on a “potential resource”. In the days before the Trading Halt was called the share price went from 27c to 38.5c. My sympathies to the investors who sold their shares not having access to the same information as others obviously did.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:59AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    ASIC are too busy charging forest dwelling environmental activists who post obviously fake press releases to deal with something as trivial as insider trading.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Basic
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 12:06PM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  The disconnect between the ASX and foreign markets is now obvious. It would seem many fund managers agree that now s the time to exit this country and move to greener pastures.

  
  

  This is also driving the AUD lower. After the glory days of the Nasdaq in 2000, the same thing happened to the USD, as many Europeans dumped their tech stocks and moved funds back to Europe. The EUR was setting daily highs against the USD back then.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Bud Fox
  
  Location

  
  

  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:19AM

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  GM Holden is playing a game of cat and mouse with Abbott. Abbott now facing real problems with voters mistrust, and his clear lack of vision and action. Any money on that Abbott will blink and back track and open up the wallet to GM Holden?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Viking
  
  Location
  
  Sydney
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:14AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    woteva credlin reckons mate

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mushroom
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 11:13AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  whoever is buying the banks today, is making a mistake.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  no banks .. no party!
  
  Location
  
  TOO EARLY!
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:09AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    why?

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Fan of Allan
    
    Location
    
    Shortland Street
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 10:22AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    But then no party? We wanna party!!!

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    GS
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 10:33AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  How much lower can it goer ?

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Oracle
  
  Location
  
  2233
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 10:03AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    Does not appear to be any confidence at all, maybe back to 4900, even lower.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Fan of Allan
    
    Location
    
    Shortland Street
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 10:26AM
    

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    How High can it Fly??

    
    

    [sorry....just could not help myself.... ]

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    mirage
    
    Location

    
    

    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 10:42AM
    

  
  


• 
  

  
  

  Ref Holden : if we are moving to a non tariff car industry what about the tariffs on 4 wheel drive and so called ‘off road’ vehicles and the FBT rort.

  
  

  
  

  Commenter
  Peter
  
  Location
  
  Sunbury
  
  Date and time
  
  December 10, 2013, 9:51AM

  
  
  • 
    

    
    

    The FBT rort (which only benefits imported European car makers and high income earners – e.g. if you need a sports Mercedes – more high income welfare) costs more than the Holden subsidy. Better even to pay Holden Toyota directly a $ 5k subsidy and remove the FBT rort.

    
    

    
    

    Commenter
    Strange economics
    
    Location
    
    Melbourne
    
    Date and time
    
    December 10, 2013, 10:46AM
    

  
  



Comments are now closed





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